CBS News Eye on Trends: The latest from the Election & Survey Unit
Watch this space for a recap of the latest polls and data-driven studies curated by the CBS News Election & Survey Unit!
We've moved!
The latest updates to CBS News Eye on Trends can be found here.
3/14/2021
Americans see better days ahead in pandemic and economy
Though "exhausted" from a year-long pandemic, confidence about containing the coronavirus is hitting new highs as more vaccines roll out, and Americans say they're also "grateful" and widely optimistic about the coming months. The economy seems poised for its own shot in the arm, with Americans bullish about its prospects, both nationally and locally, and looking forward to fueling it by traveling, shopping and dining out more -- once they think it's safe.
Precisely when they'll think it's safe is uncertain, and it won't be right away. For some, it won't be until they're vaccinated themselves. Others are waiting for cases to come down further, even if they've gotten the shot, and right now, many remain wary of venturing into crowded places. Concern about new variants weighs on others.
On the political front, this adds up to good marks for President Biden, who gets very high ratings for his handling of the outbreak, with over two-thirds approving, as well as for managing the vaccine distribution. Plus the just-signed relief bill remains extremely popular, with most feeling it will help both the economy and help them, personally.
More here.
After year of pandemic, Americans see changed lives and disparate impact
Americans report seeing their lives transformed in myriad ways over the past year -- from the loss of loved ones, to an impact on their finances, to the toll the year has taken on their mental and emotional health. Many see the changes as permanent, particularly in regards to how they view their relationships and how they will spend their free time going forward.
And as Americans look back, a majority see the nation's efforts to contain the coronavirus as largely unsuccessful. Most believe that some groups of Americans were affected more than others, and that both the decisions that people made and systemic inequalities are at least partially to blame for that.
More than eight in 10 Americans say their day-to-day lives have been impacted at least somewhat by the coronavirus pandemic, and the impact of the outbreak has been felt in many different ways. Nearly half of Americans (45%) say they themselves or someone close to them has gotten ill from the virus, and one in five say a close friend or relative has died from COVID-19. Black and Hispanic Americans are particularly likely to have a close friend or relative who has died from the virus compared to White Americans.
More here.
Vaccines drive optimism about containing COVID-19 pandemic
A majority of Americans say they'll get a COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available to them or already have had at least one shot, as vaccination efforts are driving national optimism about containing the coronavirus. Overall, the percentage of people willing to get the vaccine, plus the number who report getting one, has been on the rise.
But that optimism may meet the reality of vaccine hesitancy down the line, as many still say "no" or "maybe" to vaccines. This reluctance is connected to partisanship: Republicans, particularly younger ones, say they are less likely to get vaccinated when eligible.
More here.
3/12/2021
Standard Time vs. Daylight Savings Time
Would you rather have Standard Time all year long, or would you rather have Daylight Savings Time made permanent instead? As most of the country prepares to turn their clocks forward an hour to mark the beginning of Daylight Savings Time, a CBS Poll finds that Americans are largely divided between the two: 23% would prefer Daylight Savings Time, which would add more daylight to the end of the day, while only slightly more - 28% - would prefer Standard Time, which has more daylight in the morning.
41% of Americans, however, prefer the current format of switching back and forth between the two.
- Fred Backus
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone February 9-14, 2021 among a random sample of 1,004 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard landline and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
Would you prefer to see Daylight Savings Time extended to all year round, Standard Time extended to all year round, or do you prefer to switch back and forth between the two?
3/11/2021
CBS News Poll: COVID relief package popular
Most give Biden good marks for handling outbreak
Three in four Americans approve of Congress passing the economic relief package as it continues to draw wide support. Large majorities of Democrats and independents, along with nearly half of Republicans, approve of passage.
As President Joe Biden prepares to address the nation, two-thirds of Americans give him positive marks for his handling of the outbreak overall.
This includes the percentage who thinks he is doing a very good job handling it, which has jumped 11 points since last month.
People are becoming less critical of the speed of the vaccine distribution in their state than they were last month. While 47% feel distribution is moving too slowly, that's down from 61%. This drop is seen across demographic groups.
Mr. Biden continues to get a positive overall job rating from most Americans, at 60% approval, similar to his rating in February.
-Jennifer De Pinto
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,306 U.S. residents interviewed between March 9-10, 2021. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as the 2020 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is ±3.3 points.
3/10/2021
The 2021 Grammy Awards are this weekend. so we're taking a quick look the importance music plays in peoples' lives.
For most Americans, music is important. Three in four Americans say music is at least somewhat important in their daily lives, including 40% who say it is very important. Fewer than one in four says it is not very or not at all important.
But younger Americans attach more importance to music than older Americans. While nearly half of adults under 50 say music is very important in their daily lives, this is true of just a third of those fifty years of age or older.
Nearly 90% of Americans spend at least some portion of their day listening to music, particularly younger adults. More than half of adults under 35 say they listen to at least two hours of music a day, including more than quarter listen to more than four hours a day. In contrast, though most Americans over 65 listen to music daily, less than half listen to music for more than an hour, and about a quarter don't usually listen to any music at all.
- Fred Backus
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone January 12-17, 2021 among a random sample of 1,010 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
3/9/2021
A CBS News poll conducted in January shows that fewer Americans are able to save money these days than they used to be, and that shift is largely among middle-income earners. Lower income earner are also feeling financial pressure: they are more likely to be skipping medical care because of the cost, and are racking up more in credit card debt.
Fewer Americans are Able to Save Money These Days
roughly one in five Americans say they do not make enough to meet their bills and obligations, a percentage that has held fairly steady for the past five years. But while most Americans say they earn enough to get by, more are reporting that, over the past few months, they have been finding it harder to earn enough to save or buy extras. Just 25% say they can do so, down from 38% last June.
There has been little change among higher earning Americans. In June, 67% of Americans earning over $100,000 a year reported making more than enough to meet their needs. Today that percentage is 64%; virtually unchanged. And for Americans earning under $50,000 a year - the vast majority of whom already couldn't earn enough to save - the shift is relatively slight. About a third of those earning under $50,000 a year continue to struggle to make ends meet.
But for those in the middle range, the shift is far more dramatic. Most can pay their bills, but many are finding it more difficult to save. In June, 46% of Americans earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year reported earning enough to save, that percentage has dropped 15 percentage points to 31%.
Credit Card Debt Rising Among Lower Income Americans
One out of every two Americans has some amount of credit debt, including one in 10 who owe $10,000 or more. Slightly fewer Americans are debt-free than were so two years ago when CBS News last asked the question, and the percentage of Americans owing $1000 or more on their credit cards has risen from 27% in 2018 to 34% today.
The rise is primarily among lower income Americans. When we asked this question two years ago, nearly two thirds of Americans earning less than $50,000 a year reported that they were debt free; now just over half say they are.
On the other end of the income spectrum, the percentage of Americans earning $100,000 a year or more who have credit card debt has changed little - just over half do, similar to two years ago. But the Americans in this income level who do owe money on a credit card tend to have a higher balance than they did in 2018. Now 17% owe more than $10,000 a year from this group, a six-point increase from two years ago.
Forgoing Medical Care Because of the Cost
When it comes to paying for medical bills, 14% of Americans report they or someone in their household have had to go without medical treatment at some point in the past year because they could not afford it, and 11% have had to cut back on or stopped taking medication because they could not afford to pay for it.
Here again, Americans with lower incomes have felt the crunch more. Nearly one in five Americans earning under $50,000 a year have had to go without medical treatment or care because they couldn't afford it, and nearly as many have had to cut down or stop taking medication. Far fewer Americans who earn more have had to do the same.
- Fred Backus
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone January 12-17, 2021 among a random sample of 1,010 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
2/26/2021
Many would get COVID-19 vaccine, but hesitancy remains -- CBS News poll
Most say they either will, or at least might, get a COVID-19 vaccine when they're eligible -- or else have gotten one already -- but there are plenty who are still on the fence about it. Many of those say "maybe" they'll get one, and then there are others who say outright that they won't.
Asked why they might not, or will not, reasons tilt toward skepticism about the vaccine and its development with a wait-and-see approach, and worries about side effects. There are also some who mistrust either the government or those who developed the shot. And there are partisan views at work here, too.
More here.
2/12/2021
Romance in the Age of COVID
As the first Valentine's Day in the age of Covid19 approaches, far more Americans are looking forward to it than dreading it, though most don't care much either way. 31% of Americans are looking forward to it, while only 4% are dreading it. 63% don't care much.
Does Romance Ripen With Age?
Are you becoming more or less romantic as you get older? Americans are divided equally among the two camps, with about one in five saying they are becoming more romantic, and another one in five saying they are becoming less romantic. A majority of Americans don't really notice in any change.
There is little difference between men and women on this, but how old one is when answering the question plays a factor. 29% of adults under thirty-five say they are getting more romantic as they age, compared to just 10% of those over 65. Instead, 29% of seniors say they are becoming less romantic, though most Americans of all ages say there is no real change.
For Americans who feel they are getting more romantic with age, Valentine's Day is something to look forward to. While just 31% of Americans overall are looking forward to Valentine's Day, this rises to 59% of Americans who feel they are becoming more romantic as they get older.
Video Dating
For those not sharing a household, video streaming may be the only way to go on a romantic date these days. But can such a date actually feel romantic? Though a majority of Americans doesn't think so, about a third disagrees.
Younger adults are more likely than older Americans to see the romantic possibilities in a video date, however. Nearly half of adults under 35 think a video date can be romantic, compared to just 18% of seniors 65 and older.
Younger adults are also more likely than older Americans to speak from experience on this. 17% of adults under 34 have personally been on a "Zoom date", compared to 9% of Americans overall, and just 3% of adults 55 and older.
- Fred Backus
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone January 12-17, 2021 among a random sample of 1,010 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request.
The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
2/10/2021
Large bipartisan majority of Americans favor more COVID economic relief
A very large and bipartisan majority of Americans would support congressional passage of a new stimulus bill to help those impacted by the pandemic, and many would prefer that it receive bipartisan support in Congress, too. Meanwhile, a majority give President Joe Biden good marks for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, and for his job as president overall in the opening weeks of his administration.
And though most think the coronavirus vaccine rollout in their states is still too slow, most think it has been at least fair. A majority of Americans are planning to either get vaccinated as soon as possible, or are at least considering it, though some remain resistant.
More here.
2/9/2021
Majority favor conviction as impeachment trial begins, but many Republicans urge loyalty to Trump -- CBS News poll
As former President Trump's second impeachment trial begins, a 56%-majority of Americans would like the Senate to vote to convict him, and the same percentage say he encouraged violence at the Capitol -- views that are still somewhat linked to Americans' presidential votes in 2020, reflecting ongoing partisan division.
To those in favor of conviction, this trial is described as holding Mr. Trump "accountable" and "defending democracy." To those Americans (mostly, Republicans) opposed to it, the trial is "unnecessary" and a "distraction."
More here.
1/26/2021
The Coronavirus Is Making Many Americans Feel More Distant from Friends and Family
Isolation as a result of the coronavirus pandemic may be taking its toll on many Americans. Half of Americans say they have felt more distant from close friends and family since the coronavirus began. About a third say things haven't changed much for them, while a small percentage - 12% - say they have become closer since the pandemic began started.
There is little difference by income or region of the country, though adults under 30 (41%) are a little less likely to feel distant than older Americans (51%), and men (44%) are less likely to feel distant than women are (55%).
Being married or unmarried - or having children or not - doesn't seem to be a determining factor, though Democrats (57%) are more likely to say they feel more distant than either Republicans (42%) or independents (48%).
- Fred Backus
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone January 12-17, 2021 among a random sample of 1,010 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
1/17/2021
Americans see democracy under threat -- CBS News poll
Americans see President-elect Joe Biden taking office amid both the health crisis of the pandemic -- and what they decry as a confusing vaccine rollout that is far too slow -- then more broadly, they voice deep concern about the health of democracy itself.
And it seems too facile to just say the nation is "divided" now, because in the wake of recent events, there's active worry: Of potential threats to their way of life -- from foreign adversaries to economic forces to natural disasters -- Americans today say the biggest threat comes from inside the country, from "other people in America, and domestic enemies."
More from the poll here.
Americans criticize vaccine rollout as too slow-- CBS News poll
Most Americans are not satisfied with the coronavirus vaccine distribution in their state, with a majority saying it is going too slowly and feeling that the process of how to go about getting a vaccine hasn't been well-explained yet. This comes as more people are now interested in getting vaccinated, with those most eager to get one more critical of the speed of its rollout.
More from the poll here.
1/14/2021
More from the latest CBS News poll...
A week before the inauguration, a third of Americans don't think Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election
With only a week to go before Joe Biden assumes the office of the presidency, a third of Americans say they do not consider Joe Biden to be the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election. 67% consider him to be the legitimate president, while 33% do not.
Nearly all of the voters who do not consider Joe Biden the legitimate winner supported Donald Trump in November, and most consider themselves Republicans. While 96% of Democrats and 66% of independents consider Joe Biden to have legitimately won the 2020 election, just 31% of Republicans do.
Three in four Americans say the event surrounding the 2020 election has made democracy in the U.S. more threatened
Americans of all political stripes seem shaken in their faith in democracy by the events of the last two months since the November 2020 presidential election. 75% of Americans say the events surrounding the 2020 presidential election, and all that has happened afterwards, has made them feel that democracy in the United States is more threatened.
In a nation riven by political division, there is noticeable agreement across party lines on this. 81% of Democrats, and 75% of both Republicans and independents, feel that democracy in the United States is more threatened. But what that notion of democracy is - and what is threatening it - may be very different: Americans who think Joe Biden is not the legitimate president are just as likely as those who think he is to say American democracy is under threat.
Majority approves of Twitter deactivating Trump's account
A six-in-ten majority approves of Twitter deactivating Donald Trump's account in the wake of last week's attack on the U.S. Capitol. This includes 89% of Democrats -- most of whom strongly approve of this action -- and 60% of independents. Approval is also high (73%) among the one in six Americans who report using Twitter as a news source.
Republicans take the opposite view, with 78% disapproving, including 64% who strongly disapprove. This strong disapproval number is higher than the 51% of Republicans who, in a separate question, strongly disapprove of the actions taken by the people who forced their way into the Capitol.
Majority say race a factor in how those who attacked Capitol were treated
A majority of Americans (54%) -- and particularly Democrats and Black Americans -- believe race was a factor in how law enforcement treated those who attacked the Capitol last week.
And among those who feel race was a factor, they overwhelmingly (81%) feel the protesters were treated better because most were White, rather than if they had been Black or people of color.
Partisanship is also strongly connected here. Most Republicans don't feel race was a factor, a view that differs from the majority of Democrats and independents who feel it was.
More here.
Nearly half of Americans think some GOP lawmakers encouraged violence
For many Americans, the GOP lawmakers who objected to counting the Electoral College votes in Congress share some of the blame for the violence that occurred at the nation's Capitol. Nearly half -- 47% -- think some of these Republicans encouraged the violence that occurred.
More here.
This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,521 U.S. residents interviewed between January 11-12, 2021. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as the 2020 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 points.
1/13/2021
Majority back impeachment and are concerned about more D.C. violence -- CBS News poll
Even as they widely condemn the violence at the Capitol last week, Americans say there could be more in the days to come: 74% think it at least somewhat likely that there could be more acts of violence attempted next week, during President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration.
Seventy percent of Americans don't want to see President Trump's supporters hold protests next week. But most of Mr. Trump's 2020 voters, who are less likely than Americans overall to think violence is likely next week, would favor protests.
More immediately, a majority of Americans feel President Trump should be impeached now, as the House prepares to take up the matter.
More from the poll here.
12/31/2020
Looking Back on 2020, and Ahead to 2021
2020 was not a happy year for most Americans. Just over half say that, personally, 2020 was a year filled mostly with sadness. Just 22% say it was a year filled mostly with happiness.
But looking ahead, most Americans feel hopeful. 71% of Americans say they personally feel mostly hopeful. Just 17% feel mostly discouraged. Most Americans feel hopeful regardless of how they feel about the past twelve months, though those with a happier outlook on the past year are more likely to be hopeful (81%) than those who view the last twelve months with sadness (68%).
Expectations for the coming year do come into play in terms of whether or not Americans plan to make New Year's resolutions. Nearly half (46%) of Americans who feel hopeful about the next twelve months plan to make New Year's resolutions, while just over a quarter (28%) of those who feel discouraged plan to do the same. Overall, 43% of Americans plan to make New Year's resolutions, similar to a year ago.
- Fred Backus
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone December 8-13, 2020 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
12/30/2020
Americans Spent More Time on Electronic Devices in 2020
Perhaps it's no surprise, but in 2020, most Americans say they spent more time engaging with electronic devices than they did the year before. 52% say the amount of time the spent interacting with electronic devices increased.
Younger Americans were the most likely to increase their time with electronic devices. 62% of Americans under 50 say they spent more time interacting with electronic devices than they did in 2019, while most older Americans say they either spent the same amount of time or spent less time doing so.
- Fred Backus
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone December 8-13, 2020 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
12/29/2020
Eight in 10 Americans Say the Coronavirus Has Made it More Difficult to Make Plans
Two in three Americans say they miss spending more time with other people
Americans are having trouble making short term plans in the age of coronavirus: 81% say the pandemic has made it more difficult for them to make plans or schedule activities in the near future.
Most Americans report a difference in the number of events they have scheduled compared to a year ago. 71% say they currently have fewer events scheduled in their calendars than they did twelve months ago, including large majorities of Americans regardless of age, race, gender, and income.
And nearly half of Americans say that a major life event they had either planned to throw or attend had to be cancelled as a result of the outbreak.
Those who are making fewer plans tend to view this development more negatively than positively. 66% say they miss spending more time with people, and 49% say having fewer plans makes them feel bored because they have less to do, compared to just 28% who feel relieved to have more free time.
Some Americans, however, are making the best of things. 41% of Americans who have fewer plans say they have taken up a new hobby or pastime that they wouldn't otherwise have had time for.
- Fred Backus
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone December 8-13, 2020 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
12/18/2020
Most Americans Plan to See Fewer People this Holiday Season
The coronavirus outbreak seems poised to transform the way Americans will be experiencing the holidays this year. 70% of Americans say they plan to see fewer people this holiday season as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. Just over a quarter say they plan to see the same number of people as usual.
Majorities of all age groups plan to see fewer people this holiday season, but this is particularly true of older Americans. Three in four seniors age 65 and older plan to see fewer people.
There are some differences by political partisanship as well. Though majorities across the board say they will be seeing fewer people this holiday season because of the coronavirus, Democrats and independents are more likely to say so than Republicans.
Christmas Trees
70% of Americans will have some sort of Christmas tree in in their home this year, and while more Americans will have an artificial tree than a real one, the percentage that plan on having a real tree in their home is up from last year: from 22% in 2019 to 28% this year. However, the percentage that will have no tree at all this year has also risen by the same amount.
Jingle Bells is Still America's Favorite Holiday Song
Like last year, Jingle Bells remains America's favorite holiday song, volunteered by more than one in 10 Americans. Nearly 12% of Americans pick Jingle Bells as their favorite holiday song, ahead of Silent Night.
Here's the whole top ten:
- Fred Backus
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone December 8-13, 2020 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
12/13/2020
CBS News poll: Most feel election is "settled" but Trump voters disagree
With the Electoral College poised to elect Joe Biden tomorrow, a sizable 62% majority of the nation's voters feel the election is "over and settled" and it's "time to move on;" large majorities feel their own votes were counted correctly, and a majority acknowledges Biden as the "legitimate winner."
But the President's backers feel very differently: 82% of Trump voters say they do not consider Biden legitimate and - perhaps most notably for the coming transition month - almost half of Trump's voters say Trump should refuse to concede after that Electoral College vote happens, and instead do all he can to stay in power.
More from the poll here.
12/11/2020
Drinking in the Age of Covid
We're heading into the time when many Americans usually start attending holiday parties, but the coronavirus pandemic may have changed how Americans get together to enjoy cocktails. 30% of Americans say they have attended a cocktail party online where they've socialized with friends or family over Zoom or some other video conferencing service, though younger adults are far more likely to have done so than older Americans.
And some Americans report drinking less alcohol as a result of the pandemic. A quarter have cut down their alcohol consumption, while just 10% of Americans say they have been drinking more alcoholic beverages. Half say the amount of alcohol they've been drinking hasn't really changed.
- Fred Backus
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone November 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
12/4/2020
Americans Plan to Do More Shopping Online than in Person this Holiday Season
For the first time, more Americans say they will do most of their holiday shopping online than in person this year. Just 33% of Americans plan to do most of their holiday shopping by going to stores in person, down from a 53% majority in 2018 (when CBS News last asked the question), and 69% in 2011. Nearly half - 46% - will do most of their holiday shopping online, and another 14% say it will be an even mix.
The shift is largely among older Americans. Two years ago, just 27% of Americans age 50 and older planned to do most of their shopping online. Today 45% plan to do so, virtually the same percentage as younger adults.
As we've seen in previous years, Americans with higher incomes also plan do to more of their shopping online than those with lower household incomes, though the percentage who are doing so has increased among all income levels.
About a third of Americans plan to spend less money on holiday shopping this year than they did last year. Most Americans say they will spend about the same amount.
As might be expected, Americans earning less are more likely to spend less. 44%of those with household incomes below $50,000 a year plan to spend less, compared to 24% of Americans earning between $50,000 and $100,000 and 18% of those making over $100,000 a year.
- Fred Backus
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone November 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
11/23/2020
Thanksgiving in 2020
This Thanksgiving, few Americans will be celebrating with large numbers of people from outside of their households, and half will be celebrating with only their immediate families. Still, a quarter plan to enjoy the holiday with five or more people from outside their homes, including 9% who will be celebrating with more than 10.
Political partisanship plays a role in how many people Americans plan to celebrate Thanksgiving with. Most Democrats and independents will have Thanksgiving dinner with just their immediate families, while this is true of just a third of Republicans. One in five Republicans plan to spend Thanksgiving with more than 10 people outside of their household.
- Fred Backus
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone November 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
11/20/2020
The Sunday before Thanksgiving marks an annual tradition at CBS News: The "Sunday Morning" 2020 Food issue. We've done some polling to go along with this year's issue on food insecurity, snacking, and eating and cooking in the era of Covid19.
Food Insecurity
More than a third of Americans say there has been a point in their lives where they didn't know where their next meal would come from. 37% say they have experienced this, while 63% have not.
Americans with lower incomes are more likely to have faced this predicament, though many who currently have higher incomes have dealt with this as well. 44% of Americans with household incomes of less than $50,000 a year say there has been a point where they have not known where they would get their next meal, and this is also true of 31% of Americans earning $75,000 a year or more.
One in five Americans say they don't feel their household incomes are enough to meet their bills and obligations, and those who feel this way may be facing some tough choices on how to spend their money. More than half who are having trouble making ends meet say they have had the experience of not knowing where their next meal would come from.
When it comes to addressing the needs of the hungry, most Americans feel this is a responsibility that is shared by the local community at large, rather than only being up to individuals and their families to make sure they provide enough food for themselves. But political partisanship and ideology play a factor: While six in 10 Democrats and liberals feel the local communities bear some responsibility for making sure no one goes hungry, only half of Republicans and independents (and moderates and conservatives) say this is so.
Dining Out Indoors
For those who have more money, dining out is an option, but Americans are divided about just how safe it is to go out to eat at a restaurant these days. 43% of Americans say they would be somewhat comfortable dining out at a restaurant indoors (though just 17% would be very comfortable), while 51% say it makes them either somewhat or very uneasy.
Americans under 50, who may be less at risk from serious effects of the coronavirus, express greater comfort with the idea of eating at a restaurant indoors: 47% of Americans under 50 would be at least somewhat comfortable, compared to 39% of older Americans. But there are bigger differences along partisan lines. 63% of Republicans say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with indoor dining, compared to 42% of independents and 28% of Democrats.
Cooking at Home
Instead of going out to eat, most Americans are doing more cooking at home. 54% say they are cooking more, an even higher percentage than the 44% of Americans who say they have been watching more TV since the pandemic began.
And the more concerned one is about indoor dining, the more likely one is to be doing more cooking at home. 65% of Americans who are very uneasy with the idea of eating inside at a restaurant say they have been doing more cooking, compared to just 37% who are very comfortable with the idea.
Family Recipes
Americans who are doing more cooking are getting some help from their elders. Eight in 10 Americans overall - as well as eight in 10 who are doing more cooking at home since the pandemic began - say their household cooks with at least one recipe that has been passed down from older generations.
Snacks
And for those who either don't want to cook or dine out, there are always snacks to tide you over. Most Americans have between two and five different types of snacks in their homes, though more than a quarter have more than this, including more than one in 10 Americans who have upwards of 10 different types of snack foods.
As for what people like to snack on, Americans have a slight preference for sugar over salt. 44% of Americans say they usually prefer something sweet when having a snack, while 36% usually prefer something salty. Another one in five Americans doesn't have a preference either way.
While men have a slight preference for salty foods, women prefer food that is sweet. Younger Americans also prefer food that is sweet, while adults age 50 and older are more divided.
Those who have 10 or more different types of snacks tend to prefer salty snacks, while those who have fewer prefer something sweet.
- Fred Backus
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone November 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
11/19/2020
Nearly a quarter of Americans say they have had trouble paying their rent or mortgage as a result of the coronavirus and the resulting economic shutdowns.
Not all Americans have been affected equally: women are more likely to have had trouble paying for housing than men, younger Americans have had more trouble than older Americans, and lower income and Americans with lower levels of education have also had more trouble paying their rent or mortgages.
Some of these Americans have relocated. 17% of those who report having trouble paying their rent or mortgage have changed their residences within the past 12 months.
Many Americans also have financial concerns when looking ahead to the future. 28% are at least somewhat concerned that they will lose their home to eviction or foreclosure, and 36% are at least somewhat concerned that they will not have enough money for food or groceries.
- Fred Backus
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone October 13-18, 2020 among a random sample of 1,001 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
11/13/2020
Exit poll analysis: Which voters supported Biden or Trump in Georgia and North Carolina?
Georgia
In Georgia, which has not voted to send a Democrat to the White House since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992, Joe Biden was able to hold onto some traditional Democratic voting groups like Black voters and younger voters while also making inroads with White voters, particularly those with college degrees, and older voters, CBS News exit polls show.
North Carolina
Although President Trump was projected by CBS News as the winner of North Carolina, President-elect Joe Biden narrowed the gender gap in North Carolina and turned out Black voters in greater numbers - and won them by slightly larger margins - than Clinton did four years ago, and he narrowly edged out Mr. Trump among White voters with college degrees, by one point.
More here.
11/10/2020: Voters' views on Obamacare
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments on Tuesday on the latest challenge to the Affordable Care Act.
Voters in the presidential election are largely divided on what the Supreme Court should do about Obamacare, according to CBS News exit polling.
There are political divisions. Three-quarters of Democrats who voted want Obamacare kept in place, along with just over half of independents. Seven in 10 Republican voters want the law overturned.
Roughly one in 10 voters chose health care policy as their top issue and a majority of them say they want the Court to keep Obamacare in place. -Jennifer De Pinto
Exit poll results may have updated since this was published.
11/9/2020: Most voters remain hesitant about getting a coronavirus vaccine
A recent CBS News Poll, conducted just days before Election Day, found most voters taking a wait and see approach on getting a coronavirus vaccine.
Six in 10 said they would consider getting one should it become available this year, but would wait to see what happened to others first.
Just one in five voters said they would get a vaccine as soon as it became available.
Views are similar to what they were in September. Most Democrats and Republicans said they would not get a vaccine right away.
There's skepticism across demographic groups. Most voters across all age groups said they would wait to see what happens to others first before getting a vaccine. There are some differences by race as more White voters (23%) than Black voters (13%) said they would get a vaccine as soon as it was available, but most in each group still said they would wait and see what happens to others first before getting one themselves.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The CBS News survey of 5,175 registered voters in the U.S. was conducted by YouGov between October 26-30, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on voter registration lists, the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2016 Presidential vote. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 1.5 points.
11/7/2020
How Biden won the 2020 election: Exit poll analysis
Joe Biden was projected as the winner of the 2020 presidential election largely because he was able to convince enough voters that he could better handle the coronavirus pandemic and that he had the right temperament for the job, according to CBS News' analysis of the exit poll data.
The data show that voters who supported Biden were looking for a candidate with good judgment and for someone who could unite the country. Bringing the country together might be difficult, since voters who backed President Trump did not say they saw the coronavirus as a serious problem -- as Biden voters do -- and roughly half of these voters say they're scared of a Biden presidency.
The president-elect had the support of some groups that traditionally vote Democratic and made some inroads with some not-so-traditional Democratic groups, like men and seniors.
More here,
11/6/2020: More from the CBS News Exit Poll
A CLOSE RACE IN NEVADA
President Trump has bumped up his support with Latinos from 2016 and Biden has improved with young voters compared to Hillary Clinton four years ago, keeping this race close.
Mr. Trump has an edge over Biden with Latino Men, a group that went for Clinton by double digits four years ago.
NEVADA LATINO VOTE
2020 Biden 56%, Trump 37%
2020 Clinton 60%, Trump 29%
Biden's vote share among younger voters is higher than than Clinton's was in 2016.
NEVADA VOTERS UNDER AGE 30
2020 Biden 59%, Trump 35%
2020 Clinton 52%, Trump 35%
And there is a gender gap with men voting for Mr. Trump and women voting for Biden.
-by Jennifer De Pinto
More from the CBS News Exit Poll in Nevada here
==================================================================
GEORGIA: WHY IT'S CLOSE
Part of what's keeping the race tight in Georgia is Joe Biden's improved performance among White voters compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, particularly among White voters with a college degree. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump continues to run strong with groups who backed him four years ago.
GEORGIA: WHITE VOTERS
2020 Biden 29%, Trump 70%
2016 Clinton 21%, Trump 75%
Margins are an important metric when looking at support in various voter groups: in some cases, whether a candidate "wins" a group may be less important than how much he or she wins or loses it by.
GEORGIA: WHITE VOTERS WITH COLLEGE DEGREE
2020: Biden 42% Trump 56%
2016: Biden 28% Trump 69%
Biden is winning groups that often vote Democratic like young voters and Black voters.
GEORGIA: BLACK VOTERS
2020: Biden 87% Trump 11%
Trump is running strong with his coalition like White evangelicals and rural voters.
GEORGIA: WHITE EVANGELICALS
2020: Biden 14% Trump 85%
-by Jennifer De Pinto
More from the CBS News Exit Poll in Georgia here
10/25/2020
Trump-Biden race is tight in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina -- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll
In the final stretch of the campaign, we find three Southern battlegrounds that could still go either way. Our estimates show Joe Biden with just a two-point edge over President Trump in Florida, Biden up four points in North Carolina, and the contest even in Georgia.
More from the poll here.
Black voters motivated, but concerned about votes counting -- CBS News/BET poll
Black voters are motivated and engaged in this election, but fewer than half are very confident their vote will be counted correctly, and more than half express some concern about potential voter intimidation at the polls.
Black voters are an essential part of the Democratic Party's coalition, and they are overwhelmingly backing Joe Biden over President Trump in this election. But Black voters aren't uniformly excited about 2020. We find younger Black voters are less likely to be thinking about the election, and less motivated to vote than older voters. Younger Black voters are also not as enthusiastic in their support for the Democratic ticket. Despite a lower level of enthusiasm for Biden, these younger voters are largely in agreement with their older counterparts in at least one area -- at least nine in 10 say they would never consider voting for Mr. Trump.
More from the poll here.
11/1/2020
Biden leads, Trump needs Election Day surge to win -- CBS News Battleground Tracker
Joe Biden heads into Election Day preferred by voters who have already cast their ballots early. President Trump has a lead among those who plan to show up on November 3. So will Biden's lead hold up? If we trot out the old horserace analogy, Biden has a lead, but we still don't know how long the track is. We need to see how big that Election-Day vote will be.
So we took our baseline state model estimates from our initial polling, which sums to Biden holding an Electoral College lead heading into Election Day, and also estimated what it would take for each candidate to ultimately win.
We estimate from our polling that Mr. Trump is doing, on average, over 30 percentage points better among likely Election-Day voters than early voters. We know the approximate size of the early vote so far, and we vary the potential size of the Election-Day vote to explore two scenarios.
More here.
10/18/2020
Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin, has edge in Arizona -- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll
From Wisconsin to Arizona, as in much of the country, these final weeks of the campaign look to be about who actually votes, because voters say they've made their choices, and many have made it official. Mail ballot returns are pouring in, and almost all remaining voters say they're locked into their decisions anyway.
The coronavirus outbreak continues to shape the election in these states. Wisconsin is now going through another rise in cases, and Arizona was hard-hit earlier this year. It's particularly related to the views of those voting for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who note it as a big reason they're picking him over President Trump and believe he would handle the outbreak better. Biden is cutting into the president's 2016 support levels with key groups like seniors, men and White, non-college voters, helping to push him to a 5-point lead in Wisconsin, and a 3-point lead in Arizona.
More from the poll here.
10/12/2020
Biden leads Trump in Michigan and Nevada, and race is tied in Iowa -- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll
Most voters in the battleground states of Michigan, Nevada and Iowa feel President Trump set a bad example for the nation during his own recent battle with the coronavirus, handling things in a way they call irresponsible.
More voters say it made them feel angry rather than feel confident, and many even say they were offended. Most voters in Michigan think the Trump administration's policies are making the outbreak worse. And with voters still concerned about getting the virus themselves, large majorities suspect that, as he recovered, the president received better medical treatments than they would.
Meanwhile Joe Biden holds a large advantage over Mr. Trump on being seen as someone who cares about others, draws more favorable ratings for how he handles himself personally and, as in other states recently, would be better on handling the outbreak.
In Michigan, Biden has now drawn even with Mr. Trump on handling the economy, too -- which was one measure where the president had enjoyed an edge.
Biden remains in the lead in Michigan, ahead by six points, and he's up in Nevada by six, and is even in Iowa -- a state the president won handily four years ago.
More from the poll here.
10/4/2020
Trump and Biden even in Ohio, as Biden leads in Pennsylvania -- Battleground Tracker poll
In an election held during a pandemic, partisan voters in two key battlegrounds continue to divide over casting ballots by mail versus in person. In Pennsylvania, where more than 2 million have requested mail ballots, most Democrats say they'll vote by mail, while Republicans overwhelmingly say they'll vote in person. And in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, President Trump is the preferred candidate among those planning to vote in person, while Joe Biden is the overwhelming preference among those who plan to vote by mail. This polling was completed before the president's hospitalization on Friday.
Overall, voters' preferences in these two important states remain much as they were this summer. Voters in Ohio show an even preference between Mr. Trump and Biden, and Pennsylvania's voters continue to give Biden a lead over Mr. Trump, by seven points.
More from the poll here.
9/30/2020
Debate-watchers say Biden won first debate, but most felt "annoyed" - CBS News poll
In the first presidential debate between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, voters who watched Tuesday night say Biden won the debate, but those who watched the heated exchanges overwhelmingly called the debate's tone negative, and most said they felt annoyed watching it.
Forty-eight percent say Biden won, while 41% think Trump was the winner. Biden's margin here is not too different than his lead in national polls. Ten percent called the debate a tie.
More here.
9/29/2020
CBS NEWS BATTLEGROUND TRACKER POLL
The First Debate: Voters who plan to watch are rooting for their candidate, few are still trying to decide
In an election where almost everyone says they've already made up their minds, few debate watchers tonight say they are trying to decide who to vote for. Instead, they're rooting for their candidate, looking to see how they do, and they're also playing political consultant, offering some views on debate strategy for their candidates. CBS News surveyed a representative group of likely voters who say they plan to watch tonight.
Voters who plan to watch say they are tuning in primarily to see how their favorite candidate does, but they also have some views on debate strategy for their candidate.
Both Biden and Trump voters want their candidates to explain their plans and inspire confidence. Both items are at the top of the list when asked what their candidate should do tonight. This is the case for both Joe Biden's and Donald Trump's supporters.
Many of Biden's voters think he needs to avoid mistakes tonight. 57% of Biden's supporters say he should avoid mistakes, by comparison, just 40% of Trump's voters say that about their candidate.
Trump's backers (33%) are twice as likely as Biden's (14%) to say their candidate needs to "be entertaining."
Showing a more personal side is important too. Majorities of each candidate's supporters say their candidate should "show who he is as a person" -- more of Biden's voters feel he needs to do that than Trump's voters think their candidate does.
While most voters who plan to watch tonight are doing so to see how their candidate performs, many say they are tuning in "just for the entertainment about it." Few - just 6% - say they are watching because they are still deciding who to vote for. - Jennifer De Pinto
This CBS News survey of 7,447 registered voters, including 4,622 likely voters who plan to watch the debate, was conducted by YouGov between September 25-28, 2020.
The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on voter registration lists, the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2016 Presidential vote. The margin of error is +/- 1.8 pts.
9/29/2020
Biden Lacks Energy, Trump lacks the Right Temperament - More from the Battleground Tracker
As the presidential candidates gear up for a debate that will put their personalities and attributes on display to millions of Americans, our latest Battleground Tracker polls show a glimpse into how voters view them in two critical states in the South that are considered toss ups right now: Georgia and North Carolina. Overall, Joe Biden has the advantage on empathy and disposition, most see him as a person who cares about people and who has the right temperament, and he beats Donald Trump on both of these measures in both states - particularly among Black voters and White voters with college degrees.
Both candidates are viewed as intelligent by over half of voters, but Biden has a slight edge here as well, particularly among women.
But Donald Trump is seen as having more energy. Despite being only a few years younger than his adversary, Donald Trump outpaces Joe Biden on this attribute by a wide margin.
These results are similar to what was found nationally in a Battleground Tracker poll conducted earlier this month.
Views of the candidates are highly partisan and tied to vote, with most Democrats and Biden supporters saying Joe Biden possesses all of these qualities and that President Trump possesses none of them; and the opposite is true of Republicans and Trump voters. Still, a few voters do have doubts about their own candidates. In North Carolina, 17% of Biden supporters say their candidate lacks energy - his biggest weakness. 63% of Biden voters who say he lacks energy are voting for him mainly because they dislike Donald Trump not because they like him, compared to 47% of Biden voters overall.
For Donald Trump, 26% of his voters say he doesn't have the right temperament. Though most of these voters say they probably won't change their minds, the 64% who say their support is very strong and that they've decided is considerably lower than the 83% of Trump voters who say so overall. These voters also say they are less motivated to vote compared to those who have no doubts about Donald Trump's temperament. While most Trump voters are supporting the president because they like him, most who think he lacks the right temperament support Donald Trump either to oppose Joe Biden or because he is the Republican nominee.
Concerns about Donald Trump's temperament may cut very slightly into the extreme partisanship that characterizes vote choice this year: 14% of Republicans who don't think Donald Trump has the right temperament are voting for Biden in North Carolina.
A few voters are willing to give the candidate they are voting against good marks on some of these measures as well. Four in 10 Biden voters in North Carolina concede that Donald Trump has energy, while a third of Trump voters give credit to Biden for caring about people, and a quarter say he's intelligent (just 12% of Biden voters say the same of Donald Trump here).
- Fred Backus
These surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between September 22-25, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,164 registered voters in Georgia and 1,213 in North Carolina. Margins of error for registered voters are +/- 3.3 points in Georgia and +/- 3.6 points in North Carolina.
9/28/2020
As the debate over the Supreme Court nominee heats up, a look at the public's views on abortion and Roe v. Wade
- More than six in 10 Americans want Roe v. Wade kept in place -- including many who would nonetheless like to see abortion more restricted.
- Majorities of Democrats and independents want the ruling kept in place; Republicans are divided.
- The public's views on abortion and its availability have held fairly steady over the years. Democrats and liberals are more inclined to think abortion should be generally available and Republicans and conservatives are more likely to want limits on abortion, or say it should not be permitted.
- While some Americans want to see stricter limits on abortion, most (60%) of that group supports keeping Roe v. Wade in place. Americans who say abortion shouldn't be permitted at all overwhelmingly would like to see the ruling overturned.
Gender
- Political party and ideology are more related to views on abortion and Roe v. Wade than gender. Similar majorities of men (60%) and women (65%) think Roe v. Wade should be kept in place.
- There are differences within women by party, women who identify as Democrats (eight in 10) favor keeping Roe v. Wade, a number that drops to 45% among Republican women.
- Women with college degrees are generally more supportive than women without a college degree of making abortion generally available and to want Roe v Wade to be kept in place. Still, a majority of women without a college degree want Roe v. Wade to stay - it's largely political party and ideology that are the driving factors.
Religion
- Looking at religious affiliation, majorities of both Protestants (54%) and Catholics (59% think Roe v. Wade should stand. Most white evangelicals, many of whom feel abortion should be permitted at all, think the ruling should be overturned.
- How frequently one attends religious services plays a role regardless of religious affiliation. Those who attend religious services weekly are inclined to feel abortion should not be permitted and to think Roe should be overturned, while those who attend less often support keeping Roe v. Wade in place.
- Jennifer De Pinto
This analysis is based on CBS News Poll conducted by telephone May 29- June 2, 2020 among a random sample of 1,309 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, Pennsylvania. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cellphones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
9/27/2020
Tight races in Georgia and North Carolina, while Supreme Court is another factor -- Battleground Tracker
Voters say the Supreme Court vacancy has added to the already high stakes of the presidential election.
In the battlegrounds of Georgia and North Carolina, most say it makes the election feel even more important -- it's one more factor in an election in which most voters from both parties think their culture and way of life are at stake.
President Trump's voters here think the Democrats want society to change too fast, and Joe Biden's voters think Republicans want to go back to the past. The court fight may not be changing votes, since most were already locked in, but many describe it as adding even more motivation to the race. Both sides are about equally likely to say they'll vote (and some already have). In two contests that will turn almost entirely on turnout, that's essential.
And as important as the Supreme Court is, voters tell us it is just one of the major topics on their minds. Issues of race continue to split voters in these fast-growing, changing Southern states, and views on the protests are a major factor, too. The Black voters who make up sizable shares of the electorate here voice agreement with the Black Lives Matter movement, as do White Democrats, but the president's supporters say too much attention is being paid to discrimination against Black people today.
And it all adds up to a razor-thin horse race: Georgia remains a toss-up, with Mr. Trump up just a point; it favored Biden by a point this summer. North Carolina sees Biden up two; he had a four-point edge this summer. Mr. Trump is up comfortably in neighboring South Carolina, but that state offers some real Senate drama of its own.
More from the poll here.
9/22/2020
The End of Summer
As of today summer has officially come to an end, and most Americans are happy to turn the page to autumn. While 30% of Americans say they are sad to see summer end, 64% are looking forward to the fall.
Still, summer is America's favorite season of the year, just barely edging out fall and spring. Fewer Americans pick winter as their favorite season.
There are some differences by gender. Women have a preference for summer, while men slightly prefer fall.
And while Americans under the age of 50 prefer summer, older Americans prefer either spring or fall.
Not surprisingly, it is Americans who prefer summer that are the most likely to be sad to see it go. Americans who prefer the other seasons are looking forward to the fall.
- Fred Backus
This poll was conducted by telephone August 11-16, 2020 among a random sample of 1,008 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
Which is your favorite season of the year?
Winter 18%
Spring 25%
Summer 29%
Fall 27%
Don't know/no answer 1%
This year, are you sad to see summer come to an end, or are you looking forward to seeing fall arrive?
Sad to see summer end 30%
Looking forward to seeing fall arrive 64%
Don't know/no answer 7%
9/20/2020
Florida race tightens and Trump has edge over Biden in Texas -- Battleground Tracker poll
Joe Biden still has a small edge in Florida, but the contest has tightened since our last poll in July, from six points down to two now, amid an ebbing -- if still sizable -- concern about coronavirus, while President Trump has picked up a few more of the state's remaining uncertain voters, rebuilt some of his lead among White voters and leads Joe Biden on handling the economy. (And of course, this is Florida, where races are usually close.)
The poll was finished just before the news of the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. So it remains unknown how a court vacancy might shape the presidential race in this and in other states, but we do know voters are already overwhelmingly locked into their choices with strong support, and future polls will see if it impacts voters' already sky-high motivation to turn out, too.
In Texas, the race still looks tight as well, though the president maintains his small edge from the summer, adding perhaps a point of breathing room and is up by two points; it was one point in July.
More from the poll here.
9/18/2020
Minnesota: Bidens's lead boosted by more support from young voters
Both presidential candidates travel to Minnesota today - a state that Joe Biden would like to keep in the Democratic column, where's it been since 1976, and one that President Donald Trump has in his sights on, after losing it just narrowly to Hillary Clinton four years ago.
The latest CBS News Battleground Tracker shows Minnesota may be out of reach for President Trump...at least right now. Biden leads Mr. Trump by nine points and one of the groups helping contribute to that lead is young voters.
Biden currently has a 19-point advantage over the President among voters ages 18 to 29 -- a group Hillary Clinton won by just three points. It was among her weakest performances with young voters of the states she won, based on exit polls.
Throughout the 2016 Democratic primaries, young voters backed Clinton's rival Bernie Sanders in big numbers. Most young Democratic voters nationwide didn't see Clinton as honest and trustworthy and some of that negativity carried over into the general election. More of Minnesota's young voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton (52%) than a favorable one (46%) on Election Day. One in 10 Minnesota voters under age 30 backed either Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, a higher percentage than any age group.
Today, Biden is viewed positively by young voters (who are more likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans) on the way he handles himself personally. 55% like the way he does, the highest percentage of any age group. And seven in 10 of Minnesota's young voters dislike how the President handles himself. In addition, young voters think Biden would do a better job on key issues like the coronavirus outbreak, the economy and climate change.
But some young voters may not be feeling the love. While they think Biden is paying more attention to their needs of concerns than Trump is, 45% think he is paying too little attention to young people, about the same number who think he is paying the right amount of attention (43%). And might this impact turnout? Currently, eight in 10 young voters in Minnesota say they are very motivated to vote, but they remain less likely than older voters to say they'll definitely vote. - Jennifer De Pinto
9/13/2020
Biden gains edge in Arizona over Trump and has big lead in Minnesota -- Battleground Tracker poll
Every four years it can seem the path to the presidency runs through the same list of well-trodden battleground states. But this time, we're on some newer turf: the Democrats are contesting some states in the fast-growing Sunbelt - notably Arizona, which has been in the Republican column all but once since Eisenhower. And the Republicans would love to leverage their White, working-class support in the Upper Midwest to flip Minnesota, which oh-so-narrowly eluded them four years ago to keep its string of Democratic votes unbroken since 1976.
Right now that potential trade looks tilted in favor of the Democrats. Let's start in Arizona, where Joe Biden has moved out to a small lead, ahead by three points, an edge that's up from the tied race we found back in July. It was then we first saw concern about COVID and the President's handling of it putting the state in play. Though that virus concern has come off its highs of the summer, it remains for a sizable two-thirds of voters, and is still closely tied to vote: the more concerned a voter is, the less likely they are to be voting for the President.
About 1,600 miles north in Minnesota, we find the Republicans with their work really cut out for them. Biden has a substantial nine-point lead, backed by improvement over Democrats' 2016 performance with college-degree holding voters, particularly college-educated White women. His current percentage is 13 points better than Hillary Clinton's was in 2016 and is closer to what Democrats got in the 2018 midterms.
More from the poll here.
9/9/20
Over a Third of Voters Plan to Vote by Mail in 2020
While Biden Leads Among Mail-in Voters, Trump Leads Among Voters Planning to Vote in Person
With less than two months to go before Election Day, the prospect of mail in ballots determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential election after Election Day night looms large. About a third of registered voters nationwide say they would prefer to vote by mail or absentee this year - a larger proportion than has ever voted this way in any past presidential election. Among those who say they usually vote in person, one in five want to vote by mail this year.
Few who are planning to vote by mail foresee many problems. Six in 10 think voting by mail in their state will be easy; just one in five thinks it will be either inconvenient or difficult. Not even recent experience of delays of postal deliveries seems to concern vote-by-mail voters: 55% of vote-by-mail voters say they have experienced postal delays in recent weeks, but most still expect the vote-by-mail process to be easy.
But the size of the mail-in vote this year - as well as the partisan differences between those who would prefer to vote by mail and those who would prefer to vote in person - has implications for Election Day. As we've seen throughout the summer, far more Democrats say they prefer to vote by mail than Republicans: 50% of Democrats do, compared to just 15% of Republicans. And while just a third of independents prefer to vote by mail, this rises to 56% of independents who say they lean Democratic.
And while Democrats are moving in the direction of more mail-in voting, Republicans are not. 30% of Democrats say they have usually voted by mail, now half say they would prefer to vote this way in 2020. But little has changed among Republicans: 13% of Republican voters say they have usually voted by mail, and a similar percentage - 15% - say they would prefer to vote that way this year. Moreover, many Republicans are moving in the opposite direction: 36% of Republican voters who say they usually vote by mail or absentee would prefer to vote in person this year.
As a result, while Joe Biden overwhelmingly leads among voters who would prefer to vote by mail, Donald Trump holds a substantial 20-point lead among voters who would prefer to vote in person. In most states, Election Day vote results will be counted before mail-in ballots will be. If the current pattern holds, one candidate could seemingly be ahead in the vote count until mail-in ballots are tabulated. So even if Joe Biden's 10 point lead in the national popular vote holds up until Election Day, Donald Trump is likely to have the lead until all mail-in ballots are counted based on his substantial lead among those planning to vote in person.
We see this divide in many of the battleground states being contested this year as well. Take Wisconsin, for instance - a contested state in which Joe Biden currently holds a six-point lead in the latest Battleground Tracker poll. In Wisconsin, Biden's lead is predicated on an overwhelming advantage of mail-in voters, while Trump leads by double-digits among those who would vote in person.
And Wisconsin is not alone. The same trend is evident in a number of key battleground states polled over the summer that are either toss-ups or leaning in Biden's direction. In state polls taken in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Biden has a commanding lead among mail-in voters, but Trump maintains a double digit lead among those who plan to vote in person.
- Fred Backus
9/6/20
CBS NEWS BATTLEGROUND TRACKER POLL: NATIONAL, WISCONSIN CONTESTS STEADY AMID PROTESTS; MORE THINK BIDEN TRYING TO CALM SITUATION
Attention to the protests has not changed the Presidential horse race, which former Vice President Joe Biden still leads by the same margins nationally and in the battleground state of Wisconsin. Here's why: though neither candidate gets rave reviews for all they've said about the matter, Biden is seen by more as trying to calm the situation, while views of the President show slightly more thinking he encourages fighting than calms things. And the larger notion that violence could come to "the suburbs" finds little concern among those actually in the suburbs. Biden maintains his lead over Trump nationally and is also ahead in Wisconsin, as he was in early August.
More here.
Voters skeptical about potential COVID-19 vaccine and say that one this year would be rushed
Skepticism about getting a coronavirus vaccine has grown since earlier this summer, and most voters say if a vaccine were made available this year, their first thought would be that it was rushed through without enough testing.
Just 21% of voters nationwide now say they would get a vaccine as soon as possible if one became available at no cost, down from 32% in late July. Most would consider it but would wait to see what happens to others before getting one.
More here.
9/4/20
Live Performances...on the Screen
We're experiencing a time when attending large live performances such as concerts and musicals is not possible for many Americans, but though few think watching them on a screen is any more fun, many Americans don't think they are worse off for it either. While 43% think it is less enjoyable to watch a live performance on TV or online, nearly as many - 39% - don't see much of a difference. Just 15% think it is more enjoyable.
Younger Americans in particular tend to prefer being there in person: about half say such events are more enjoyable being there. But this is true of just a third of Americans 55 and older. Older Americans tend to be just as happy watching live events on TV or streaming as they are being there in person. - Fred Backus
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted by telephone July 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,002 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
In general, do you find watching a live performance such as a concert or a stage musical on television or online to be more enjoyable than watching them in person, less enjoyable, or doesn't it really matter to you either way?
More enjoyable 15%
Less enjoyable 43
Doesn't matter 39
Don't know/no answer 3
8/28/2020
Some Summer Polling as the Season Draws to a Close...
Back in July we asked some questions about summer. Here are some of the results:
Summer Reading
If you didn't finish that long summer reading list you set up for yourself at the beginning of the summer, you may not be alone: most Americans don't read more books during the summer than they do during the rest of the year. 14% of Americans say they read fewer books in the summer compared to 12% who say they read more. Seven in 10 say they read the same number of books during summer than they do the rest of the year. Results were similar when we last asked this three years ago.
Younger adults are the most likely to increase their reading over the summer. One in five adults under 30 read more books over the summer than the rest of the year, compared to one in 10 older Americans.
What types of books do Americans prefer to read during the summer? On the whole, they tend towards non-fiction: while 40% prefer fiction, 46% prefer non-fiction. And it doesn't seem like this changes much during the summer, either. When CBS News asked in March 2019 what Americans preferred to read generally, the results were nearly identical.
Summer Refreshment
More Americans find iced tea to be the most refreshing thing to have on a hot summer day than lemonade. When asked to choose from a list of items, 27% picked iced tea, while 22% picked lemonade. Beer came in third at 17%, followed by ice cream (13%).
There are some gender differences, however. While women tend to prefer iced tea and lemonade, men are split between iced tea and beer.
- by Fred Backus
This poll was conducted by telephone July 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,002 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
Compared to the rest of the year, do you read more books in the summer, fewer books in the summer, or do you read about the same number of books in the summer as you do the rest of the year?
More 12%
Fewer 14%
Same 70%
Don't know/No answer 3%
Generally speaking, which type of book do you usually prefer reading in the summer, fiction or non-fiction?
Fiction 40%
Non-fiction 46%
Don't read books (vol.) 11%
Don't know/no answer 3Which one of the following do you find most refreshing on a hot summer day?
Iced tea 27%
Lemonade 22%
Beer 17%
Wine 2%
Soda 8%
A popsicle 7%
Ice cream 13%
None of these (vol.) 3%
Don't know/ no answer *
8/27/2020: Republican Convention - Day 4
Going Into the Convention, Republicans Focused on "Law and Order"
President Trump tonight is expected to put an emphasis on "law and order," an issue that's top of mind for Republicans.
Heading into the GOP convention, our latest Battleground Tracker polling found Republicans' top issues after the economy included policing and law enforcement issues, and the recent protests.
In the survey (which was conducted just prior to the events in Kenosha, Wisconsin) voters were asked about recent protests and we found different views of what was happening split by partisanship.
About three-quarters of Republicans say the protests have been made up of people trying to destroy property and cause harm. On the other side of the political spectrum, half of Democrats believe people protesting have been looking to raise awareness of racial discrimination, while 40% say it's a mix of both.
- By Elena Cox
The CBS News national survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,226 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 19-21, 2020. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points.
8/26/2020: Republican Convention - Day 3
Most Republican Voters Are Enthusiastic about Mike Pence
Vice President Mike Pence will be speaking at the Republican National Convention tonight, and our recent Battleground Tracker Poll shows that Pence finds favor with most Republican voters nationwide. 56% of Republican voters say they are enthusiastic about Mike Pence's place on the ticket as the Vice Presidential nominee, and another 35% say they are satisfied. Almost no Republicans express dissatisfaction with Pence.
While most Republicans across the board are at least satisfied with Mike Pence, some Republicans are more enthusiastic about Pence than others. Three in four Republicans who say they are very conservative are very enthusiastic about Pence, more than Republicans who are only somewhat conservative.
Another group of Republican voters that Pence finds a lot of support from - and one which tends towards the very conservative wing of the Republican Party - are White evangelicals. 66% of White evangelicals are very enthusiastic about Pence, 10 percentage points higher than Republican voters overall.
In general, Republican voters who say religion is very important in their daily lives are far more enthusiastic about Mike Pence than those who don't: 68% are very enthusiastic, compared to less than half of Republican voters who are less so.
Similarly, Republican voters who attend religious services at least once a week are also more enthusiastic about Mike Pence.
- by Fred Backus
For the GOP, It's Still the Economy
At the Republican National Convention this week, the party is reminding voters of what it considers to be President Trump's pre-COVID economic successes, and our latest Battleground Tracker poll shows Republicans have a rosier view of the economy right now than Democrats do. About two thirds (67%) of Republicans say they would rate the condition of the national economy at least somewhat good, though just 18% say it is very good.
This is important, because Republicans overwhelmingly say the economy is one of the most important factors in their vote choice. (The economy is important for Democrats too, but not as much as coronavirus, which is playing an outsized role in this election.)
Personal Finances
Part of the reason Republicans say things in the U.S. are better off than they were four years ago is because of the economy (70%) and their own family and finances (64%) In fact, about half of Republicans say they are better off financially than they were four years ago, while a third say things are the same.
Republicans are more secure about their financial situations than Democrats, with nearly three quarters saying they are at least somewhat confident they would be able to pay their monthly food and housing costs. They are also more likely than Democrats to say they're able to pay their debts every month, pay for medical bills and have some money left over to save.
While income levels do play a role, the majority of Republicans who say their family makes under $50,000 per year (62%) say they are confident they would be able to cover their food and housing costs. Only 35% of Democrats making under $50,000 say the same.
Looking forward, 57% of Republicans say they want the president to put a high priority on lowering taxes in the next four years, ahead of controlling the coronavirus and health care reform.
In our Battleground Tracker last month, we saw some evidence that might help explain Republicans' assessments, in the form of optimism. Republicans were more likely to say any negative economic impact from the coronavirus outbreak was going to be a temporary one. This will be worth following in the coming months to see how assessments bear out.
- By Elena Cox
The CBS News national survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,226 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 19-21, 2020. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points.
8/25/2020: Republican Convention - Day 2
Republicans think Trump Has Delivered on His Promises, and Like His Priorities for the Future
Looking back over the first term of Trump's presidency, Republicans are happy with what they've seen. Most Republicans rate the Trump presidency as "excellent", and eight in 10 think Donald Trump has delivered on most, if not all, of his campaign promises.
Specifically, nearly all Republican voters think Donald Trump has made the country safer from terrorism and the borders more secure, and that manufacturing jobs are returning to the U.S.
Most also think that "the swamp" is being drained (66%), special interest groups have been stymied (65%), and that they are now safer from criminals and gangs (62%).
More broadly, seven in 10 Republican voters think their culture and way of life are now safer since Donald Trump took office.
One campaign promise that Donald Trump gets mixed results on is building a border wall with Mexico: while three in 10 Republican voters think most or all of the wall has been built, most say "just some" of the wall has been completed (and even fewer think Mexico has paid for all or most of it). Those who say just some of the wall has been built give a slightly lower - but still net positive - rating for the Trump presidency so far (50% say it has been excellent, compared to 57% of Republican voters overall). Nevertheless, they largely think Donald Trump shares their policy goals and that he has still made due on most of his campaign promises.
Looking forward, nine in 10 Republican voters say the President is advancing the policy goals they want, and first among these goals is stopping the Democrats' agenda. Three in four Republican voters think this should be a high priority if Donald Trump is re-elected, more than who prioritize lowering taxes, controlling the coronavirus, or reforming health care.
- By Fred Backus
The CBS News national survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,226 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 19-21, 2020. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points.
8/24/2020: Republican Convention - Day 1
The Party of Lincoln is Now Very Much the Party of Trump
As we head into a Republican Convention that will feature the President taking center stage throughout the week, Donald Trump will be addressing a political party that is very much his own. The vast majority of Republicans think Donald Trump exemplifies Republican values and they would prefer Republican candidates who would support his agenda, not be independent from him. In fact, more Republicans say that being a Trump supporter is very important to their political identity than say being a Republican is.
Few Republican voters now see much daylight between Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Eight in 10 Republican voters see in Donald Trump a personal example of what they see as Republican values.
Some Republicans go further: 72% consider Donald Trump a good role model for children.
Republicans express what might be described as a personal connection, as nine in 10 Republican voters think Donald Trump takes on people who deserve it, and nearly as many think he speaks for people like them in a way they can understand and relate to.
And nearly all Republicans think Donald Trump deserves their loyalty.
This belief in personal loyalty behind the President extends to how Republican voters view their party leaders in Congress. Seven in 10 say they want to vote for Republican candidates for Congress who do what Trump wants, rather than be independent.
This sentiment marks a turnaround from four years ago when Donald Trump first accepted his party's nomination. Just before the Republican convention in July 2016, a CBS News Poll found that 53% of Republican registered voters felt that Republican leaders in Congress should have more influence over the direction of the Republican Party than Donald Trump (33%). Back then, most Republican voters were satisfied with Trump as the nominee, but few (24%) were excited.
- by Fred Backus
The CBS News national survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,226 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 19-21, 2020. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points.
8/23/20
Battleground Tracker poll:
Republicans see U.S. as better off now than 4 years ago ahead of convention
It was mostly Democrats who watched last week's convention, and they liked what they saw. Now, as the Republicans begin theirs, we find a Republican Party whose voters not only hold a different view of things in America than Democrats do -- but also one very different from most voters overall. And therein may lie Republicans' own challenge.
Republicans see an America -- to borrow Ronald Reagan's famous test -- better off today than it was four years ago, mainly, they say, because of their confidence in President Trump.
Democrats react to their convention, Biden keeps same lead
Meanwhile, the Democrats' convention -- which was watched mostly by Democrats -- appears to have solidified Biden's existing support, and those who watched said it made them feel more positively.
More from the poll here.
8/20/2020 Democratic Convention - Day 4
Most Americans Want More Funding for the Post Office to Handle Mail-In Ballots
As postmaster general Louis DeJoy halts his proposed cost-cutting changes to the United States Postal Service until after Election Day, most Americans say that the USPS should be getting more funding in order to handle mail-in voting this year. And amidst reports of recent slow downs in service due to the measures, nearly half of Americans say they rely a lot on mail and deliveries from the U.S. Postal Service in their daily lives.
Majorities across demographic groups feel this way, though there are partisan differences. Nearly all Democrats and most independents think more funding should be allocated, but few Republicans agree. Most Republicans think the U.S. Postal Service should get the same amount of funding it has always gotten.
Given past voting history, this partisan split may not be surprising. Our most recent CBS News Battleground Tracker poll shows that 26% of Democratic registered voters say they have usually voted by mail in the past, compared to 15% of Republican voters. Looking ahead to this year, 37% of registered voters say they would prefer to vote by mail for the presidential election. Of those who would prefer to vote this way, 78% plan on voting for Joe Biden.
Despite the many new ways technology has afforded people to communicate, the vast majority of Americans say they still rely on the U.S. Postal Service. Eight in 10 rely on the service at least somewhat, and 45% say they rely on it a lot.
Here there is less political division. Large majorities of Democrats and Republicans alike say they rely on the U.S. Postal Service, and Democrats (50%) are only a little bit more likely than Republicans (40%) to say they rely on it a lot. Women (52%) are more likely than men (38%) to say they rely on the U.S. Postal Service a lot, and older Americans are far more likely to rely on it a lot than younger Americans.
- Fred Backus
The CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,000 U.S. citizens interviewed online between August 13-15, 2020 and a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed online between August 12-14, 2020.
8/19/2020 Democratic Convention - Day 3
Barack Obama: Highly rated and in high demand
Former President Barack Obama will speak at the convention tonight and Democrats are looking forward to hearing from him.
Heading into the convention, far more Democrats wanted to hear from President Obama than another recent Democratic president, Bill Clinton, who spoke last night. Across demographic groups within Democratic voters, roughly 90% want to hear from Mr. Obama.
Looking back, nine in 10 Democrats rate the Obama presidency positively, including 59% who say it was "excellent."
Both White and Black Democrats rate Obama's presidency highly, but three in four Black Democrats rate it as "excellent" compared to 55% of White Democrats who do.
While most Democrats express strong support for nominee Joe Biden, this is especially so among those Democrats who rate the Obama presidency as excellent- nearly all of them (92%) say their support is "very strong - I've decided" - higher than the number who rate it as good (79%). Very few in either group say they would consider voting for President Trump.
Biden's association with former President Obama was an asset during the primaries. Last summer, ahead of the nominating contests, 86% of Democrats in the early primary states who were considering backing Biden cited his time as Vice President with Barack Obama as a reason - far ahead of his policy stances (57%) or his time in the U.S. Senate (54%).
Biden was helped by his connection to Mr. Obama in another way. The Democratic primary electorate was more inclined to prefer a return to President Obama's policies than a move toward more liberal policies, and Biden won a majority of those Democratic voters who were seeking a return to Obama era policies. - by Jennifer De Pinto
This analysis is based on a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020. Additional sources: CBS News Battleground Tracker, May 31-June 12, 2019, 2020 CBS News primary exit polls.
CBS News Battleground Tracker- August 12-14, 2020
Registered Voters
Sample 2,210 Registered Voters
Margin of Error _2.4%
Looking back on it now, how would you rate Barack Obama's presidency? Was it...
Among Democrats
Excellent ............................................................................. 59%
Good ...................................................................................31%
Fair ...................................................................................... 7%
Poor ..................................................................................... 2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A Look at Black Voters Nationally, and Within the Democratic Party
Our recent nationwide Battleground Tracker Poll fielded just before the Democratic Convention shows that 90% of Black likely voters nationwide plan to cast their ballot for Joe Biden. In this, Biden is doing better among Black voters than Hillary Clinton did at this point in the campaign four years ago. In a July 2016 poll taken before both parties' nominating conventions (which occurred earlier in the summer that year), CBS News polling showed Hillary Clinton with the support of 72% of Black voters (Clinton ultimately won 89% of Black voters nationally).
The solid support of Black voters will be crucial for the Democrats' chances of winning many of the key battleground states that President Trump won in 2016, and Biden is getting that at the moment. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio are all states that Trump won four years ago, but this year are "toss ups" right now in the CBS News Battleground Tracker Model. Black voters made up between 14% and 30% of the vote in these states in 2016, and recent polling in these states show Biden with a huge lead among this group. And in each of these states, Biden is trailing Donald Trump among White voters by double digits.
How Black Voters View Joe Biden
Four in 10 Black voters who are voting for Biden say they are doing so because they like Joe Biden, far more than what we're seeing among White voters, who mostly say they're voting for Biden to oppose Donald Trump.
Black and White Democratic Voters both largely like the way Joe Biden handles himself. They also see Biden as honest and authentic in equal proportion, and they view him similarly in terms of being knowledgeable and presidential as well. But Black Democratic voters are far more likely than White Democrats to see Biden as inspiring. 82% do, compared to 63% of White Democratic Voters.
And most Black Democratic voters find Biden to be an exciting candidate, compared to fewer than half of White Democrats.
The Harris Pick
Though Biden's selection of Kamala Harris as his running mate finds favor from most Democrats across the board, Black Democratic voters are even more likely to be happy about the choice, and are even more enthusiastic about her place on the ticket.
Like most White Democrats, Most Black Democratic voters think having Harris on the ticket will make it easier for Biden to win in November.
Are Black Voters Taken for Granted?
Although Black voters are, once again, supporting the Democratic nominee in large numbers this year, many Black voters think the Democratic Party today does not pay enough attention to the needs and concerns of Black people. 46% say they do, but another 46% say the Democratic Party pays too little attention to their needs. But they give the Democratic Party much higher marks than the Republican Party in that regard: eight in 10 Black voters think the Republican Party pays too little attention to the needs of Black people.
Though many Black voters may think the Democrats should pay more attention to their needs, most Black Democrats don't feel the Democratic Party takes their vote for granted. More than three in four Black Democrats think their party's candidates try to earn their vote.
Views on Discrimination and the Black Lives Matters Movement
85% of Black voters say race relations will play a major factor in their presidential vote this year, placing it right behind the economy (87%) and the coronavirus (86%) in terms of importance. In contrast, 54% of White voters say race relations will play a major factor in their vote this year.
Overall, Black and White voters see discrimination in America differently. Eight in 10 Black voters think there is a a lot of discrimination against Black people today. Though most White voters say there is at least some discrimination against Black people, just four in 10 say there is a lot.
Over half of White voters say there is also some discrimination against White people in the U.S. Just a quarter of Black voters agree.
And while most White voters say there has been too much attention being paid to issues of discrimination today, most Black voters say there hasn't been enough.
Nearly all Black voters agree with the ideas expressed by the Black Lives Matters movement, while fewer than half of White voters do. While support for the movement has remained strong among Black voters, support among White voters has slipped, from 52% at the end of June to 45% today.
Even among Democrats, Black voters show more solidarity with the ideas behind the Black Lives Matters Movement. While most white Democrats say they agree with the ideas of BLM, fewer than half do so strongly (those who do tend to be younger and very liberal). In contrast, 70% of Black Democrats strongly agree with the ideas of the movement.
- by Fred Backus
Source: This analysis is based on a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020.
8/18/2020 Democratic Convention - Day 2
Hispanic Voters Largely Support Biden As Coronavirus Becomes A Top Issue in 2020 Race
Hispanic voters are backing Joe Biden ahead of the Democratic Convention at levels near or exceeding those Democrats got in 2016, and Biden's support -- particularly in key battleground states -- is bolstered by the view that he cares more about the risk of coronavirus to their communities. Nationally, more than two-thirds (71%) of Hispanic voters say they intend to vote for the former vice president in November.
In Texas and Florida, Joe Biden currently has about the same level of support as Hillary Clinton did in the 2016 election. In Arizona, Biden's current support is a bit higher than Clinton's was in 2016, which could give Biden an edge in the battleground state.
Hispanics express more concern than voters overall about contracting coronavirus and are more likely to cite the current outbreak as a major factor in their vote decision.
The majority of Hispanic voters in these states say the president is doing a bad job handling the crisis, and most say he doesn't care about their coronavirus risk. Conversely, nearly three quarters of Hispanics say Biden at least somewhat cares about their risk. In both cases, Hispanics fall between White voters, who are more likely to support the president's response, and Black voters, who are more critical.
Like other voters in these states, Hispanics in Florida, Texas and Arizona all rank health care and the economy as major factors in deciding their votes. These issues are ahead of others including immigration, recent protests and gun policy in terms of importance.
Nationally, Hispanics are slightly more likely than White Americans to say they are worse off financially than they were four years ago. About a third (33%) say their change in personal finances is worse, while 40% say things remain the same. They are also concerned about their future finances, and are more likely than other racial groups to say they are "very concerned" about losing their jobs or getting a pay cut in the next few months.
And we see an empathy gap on economics, with Hispanics saying Biden cares more about their economic situation than Trump.
In Texas and Florida, Hispanics are more likely to say they are voting for Biden to oppose Donald Trump, not necessarily because they like him. That's similar to what we're seeing with White voters nationally. Only in Arizona do more Hispanic voters (42%) say they support Joe Biden because they like him.
When it comes to President Trump, about two thirds of Hispanic voters in these states say he works against them.
But while more Hispanics think Biden would favor them rather than work against them, many think he would be neutral. - by Elena Cox
Source: This analysis is based on a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020 as well as CBS News exit polls and primary polls conducted during the 2020 primaries.
State surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between July 7-10, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,099 registered voters in Arizona, 1,229 in Florida and 1,212 in Texas. Margins of error for registered voters: Arizona +/- 3.8 points, Florida +/- 3.5 points, Texas +/- 3.3 points.
8/18/2020 Democratic Convention - Day 2
ELECTION 2020: WHERE DO WOMEN VOTERS STAND?
As the country marks 100 years since women got the right to vote, their votes will be pivotal in this year's presidential election.
Historically, women are pretty reliable Democratic voters in presidential elections. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 13 points among women nationally. Men backed Trump by 11 points representing the largest gender gap since 1972 when exit polls were first conducted.
The last time women voted for a Republican for president was in 1988 when George Bush beat Michael Dukakis, women only backed Bush by 1 pt.
But winning a majority of women alone doesn't win you the presidency. As we've seen in past elections, vote preferences within women can differ, particularly by race and education.
Biden leads with women overall, but he will need to make gains with some types of women voters, including some who have been trending Republican in recent presidential elections in order to win the White House, and Trump will at least need to maintain his standing with these groups.
Gender Gap: Women for Biden, Men split nationally with edge to Trump in battlegrounds
Biden is currently ahead of Trump among women nationwide and in nine battleground states where CBS News has conducted polling. Men split nationally, while Trump has the edge with men in key battlegrounds.
Biden gains with white women, college graduates, Black women strongly behind him
Trump won white women by nine points nationally in 2016 - a group that has voted Republican in presidential elections since 2000. Biden trails Trump among white women nationally but he is making inroads with this group, particularly with white women who have college degrees.
In the battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Biden currently has the edge with white women voters. Clinton won this group (just narrowly) in Wisconsin, but lost them in Michigan and Pennsylvania four years ago. Biden trails Trump among white women in six other battlegrounds, but has mostly improved on Clinton's margins from 2016.
Biden also leads Trump among suburban women by 57% to 39%, a group the President has been targeting lately.
Many of Biden's gains come from white women with college degrees. He leads with this group nationally in seven of the nine battleground states CBS News has polled. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Clinton and Trump tied among white women college graduates, but Biden currently leads Trump by 20 points among them. And in Florida, Biden has a 23-point advantage with this group; Clinton lost them by that much in 2016 in that state.
White women who are not college graduates supported Trump in 2016, and most are backing him now. So far, Biden has not moved the needle that much among this group.
Black women, who were crucial to Biden's primary victories, are backing him in large numbers. 93% say they are voting for Biden, while 4% are backing Trump.
Women particularly concerned about coronavirus, say Biden will handle better
Women are more concerned about the coronavirus than men are, and they are more likely to think Biden will do a better job than Trump handling the outbreak, although men give Biden the edge on this too. Eight in 10 women who are very concerned about the coronavirus are backing Biden.
The most important qualities women are looking for in a candidate is someone knowledgeable and someone honest and on both of these, more women think Biden possesses these qualities than Trump.
- Women like the Harris pick
Women are happier about Biden's choice of Harris then men are: by two to one, women are glad Biden picked Harris rather than someone else. Black women (who mostly identify as Democrats) are particularly happy - 62% are.
While many women are happy about the pick of Harris, there is an enthusiasm gap with regard to voting between those backing Biden and those voting for Trump. 74% of women backing Trump are very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 60% of women voting for Biden. - by Jennifer De Pinto
This analysis is based on CBS News surveys conducted by YouGov nationally and in battleground states.
8/17/2020 Democratic Convention - Day 1
Bernie Sanders: From Biden rival to supporter
In Sen. Bernie Sanders' second bid for the presidency, he repeated his strong support among young voters, and had some success in moving the Democratic party toward some of his more progressive ideas. In the end, it was a candidate who could beat President Trump that Democratic primary voters were looking for, and for them, Joe Biden fit the bill. And the more liberal wing of the Democratic party that backed Sanders during the primaries appears to be coalescing behind the presumptive nominee.
- Two in three Democrats say Biden agrees with Sanders the right amount
Sanders endorsed Biden soon after exiting the race, and most Democrats say Biden has struck the right balance in his agreement with Sanders' ideas. Outside the Democratic Party, independents' views are more mixed, with nearly half (47%) saying Biden agrees too much with Sanders' ideas -- and those independents are backing Trump. The independents who don't hold this view are voting for Biden.
And perhaps not surprisingly, a majority of Republicans say Biden agrees with Sanders too much, as Trump attempts to paint Biden as being a tool of the "radical left".
- Biden winning over Sanders voter groups: the young and the very liberal
There are about half of voters who identify as "very liberal" who don't think Biden has embraced Sanders' ideas enough, but these voters are overwhelmingly backing Biden over Trump and are as likely as other Biden voters to say they'll vote this year, even if they are doing so mostly to oppose Trump. Overall, nine in 10 of very liberal voters say they are voting for Biden; similar to the level of support Biden is getting from voters who call themselves "somewhat liberal".
While Biden struggled to penetrate Sanders' support with young voters during the primaries (Sanders won them in every state where exit polls were conducted), 62% of voters under 30 nationwide are currently backing him, higher than the percentage that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton's share of the youth vote in key battleground states she lost fell short of Barack Obama's share in his presidential bids.
Heading into the convention, two-thirds of Democrats nationwide want to hear Sanders speak at the Democratic convention; this is particularly the case among "very liberal" and younger voters.
Sanders' signature issue of his campaign was his support of a Medicare-for-all health care system and while Biden hasn't fully embraced that idea (his plan builds on Obamacare providing a new public option),health remains a dominant issue for voters, particularly among Democrats. - by Jennifer De Pinto
The Covid Factor: Democrats Seize the Issue
As the Democrats set up for their first ever remote national convention, the issue at the heart of why the convention is being held remotely - namely the coronavirus outbreak in the United States - is one that finds particular resonance with Democratic voters. Nearly nine in 10 Democratic registered voters say the coronavirus outbreak will be a major factor in their vote come November, more than independents, and almost twice as many as the 45% of Republicans who say it weighs as heavily in their vote choice.
In this, Democrats are more reflective of voters overall than Republicans. Most voters nationally, as well as in many of the key battleground states, also say the coronavirus is a major factor in their vote. And nationally, as well as in these key battleground states, most voters think things are going badly for the U.S. in its efforts to confront the coronavirus outbreak. Voters who think so are voting overwhelmingly for Joe Biden.
- From the start of the outbreak, Democratic voters have shown more concern about the coronavirus than Republicans
Since the coronavirus outbreak shut down large sectors of the U.S. economy back in March, Democratic voters have taken the outbreak very seriously - considerably more seriously than most Republicans. Moreover, while concern among Democrats has risen since the outbreak began, concern among Republicans has dropped. In March, 45% of Democratic voters said they were very concerned that they or a close family member would contract the virus; that percentage is up to 54% today. While few Republicans said they were very concerned back when the outbreak began in March, 63% said they were at least somewhat concerned. Now just half of Republican voters are even somewhat concerned, and only one in five say they are very concerned.
Democrats are also more concerned about the potential economic hit they may personally take as a result of the outbreak than Republicans. More than a quarter of Democratic voters are very concerned that they or someone in their household may lose their job or have a major reduction in paid work as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, and more than half are at least somewhat concerned. In contrast, just one in 10 Republican voters are very concerned, and most say they are either not very or not at all concerned.
So why are Democratic voters so much more concerned about the coronavirus than Republican voters? Democrats (44%) are twice as likely to report many cases of coronavirus in their communities than Republicans (22%), and some of this may be due to the demographic breakdown of the two parties. The CDC reports that Covid-19 is affecting communities of color in the United States in a greater proportion than white Americans. In the latest CBS News Battleground Tracker poll, 46% of Democratic registered voters identified themselves as people of color, compared to just 11% of Republican registered voters. In terms of economics, Democrats also have a higher proportion of lower income voters, making them potentially more at risk to the economic consequences of the outbreak.
- One's political views may be shaping how one views the virus to a greater extent than the virus is shaping one's political views.
For instance, though Democratic voters are far more likely to say there have been many cases of coronavirus in their communities than Republicans, they do so regardless of what type of community they live in, and regardless of what region of the country they reside in. Whether they reside in the Northeast - which saw the initial surge of cases in early Spring - or in the South - where cases are spiking today - about twice as many Democratic voters than Republican voters report many cases of the virus in their communities.
The same holds true in terms of what type of community they live in. The coronavirus began by ravaging urban centers in the spring, and has since moved to more suburban and rural settings as it has progressed. Nevertheless, Democratic voters are more likely than Republican voters to report large numbers of coronavirus cases in the communities whether they live in cities, the suburbs, or small towns. Similarly Democrats report more cases of coronavirus in their communities, and higher levels of concern than Republicans across all income levels.
In other words, Democrats and Republicans are seeing the effects of the coronavirus outbreak through different lenses, and their levels of concern remain strikingly different, even while, in many cases, living in the same types of communities in the same regions of the country.
- Democrats and Republicans are getting their information from different sources.
Back in May we asked who Democrats and Republicans trusted to give them accurate information about the virus, and they differed widely on many of their potential sources. A large majority of Democrats, for instance, said they trusted the national media to give them accurate information about the coronavirus, while the news media was trusted by just one in five Republicans. And while more than eight in 10 Republican voters said they trusted President Trump in this regard, fewer than one in 10 Democrats said they trusted him.
- Democrats are more reflective of most Voters than Republicans when it comes to the Coronavirus Outbreak
The result of this disconnect is to put Republicans at odds with the majority of Americans on this issue, an issue which the Democrats are likely to make a central issue this week in making the case to unseat President Trump in November. Like Democrats, most voters nationwide are concerned that they or a family member could get the virus, most think things are going badly in the U.S. efforts to deal with the outbreak, and most voters are not happy with the current administration's response: six in 10 registered voters think the Trump administration could be doing more to fight the coronavirus, and only a quarter of voters - mostly Republicans - think the Trump administration's policies have helped their own state try to contain the outbreak. 41% think the Trump administration has hurt their state's efforts.
And as September looms, just a quarter of voters want schools to reopen with children returning to full classes as normal,and most voters think the Trump administration is pressuring schools to reopen, rather than allow state and local school boards to set their own timelines.
More importantly, criticism over how the President is handling this issue can be seen in a number of the battleground states that are crucial for a victory in November. The CBS News Battleground Tracker polls have found that majorities of voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas,, and Wisconsin all give President Trump poor marks for handling the coronavirus outbreak.
The result is that voters nationwide think Joe Biden would do a better job handling the coronavirus outbreak than Donald Trump.
- by Fred Backus
This analysis is based on a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020 as well as CBS News exit polls and primary polls conducted during the 2020 primaries.
8/16/20
Battleground Tracker poll: Biden solidifies Democratic base support ahead of convention
Helped by a party that seems unified behind him, Joe Biden leads in our current estimate of the Electoral College -- the only count that will matter -- as his nominating convention begins. The CBS News Battleground Tracker model has Biden up in states worth 279 electoral votes, slightly more than the 270 needed to win in November. To be clear, that doesn't mean Biden will win. This is now.
The electoral map has expanded this summer. Multiple Southern states previously in the Republican column now look to be in play, like Arizona, Georgia, and even Texas. Biden currently leads in the three upper-Midwest states that President Trump narrowly flipped in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
All that opens up multiple paths for Biden to reach 270, as we have seen widespread movement toward him, rather than shifts in just a few states. We estimate that states worth 96 electoral votes are toss-ups, including others that Mr, Trump won, like Iowa and Ohio. However, states currently leaning toward Biden could go back to toss-up status or even lean Republican if the race changes down the road.
More here.
Democrats happy with Harris pick and Biden holds lead ahead of convention
And we find Biden's vice presidential pick of Kamala Harris is exciting to his Democratic base. Democrats say they're glad he picked Harris and, asked to play political consultant for a moment, feel Harris also improves the ticket's chances of winning.
More here.
8/9/2020
Biden leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania due to COVID concerns, country's direction -- Battleground Tracker poll
Late on election night 2016, it was Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that put Donald Trump over the top and into the White House, thanks to late-deciding voters who went his way, and big margins among people who wanted change.
Today, the vast majority of voters in these two states say things in the U.S. are going badly. They think Joe Biden would do a better job of handling coronavirus by significant margins, washing out any edge Mr. Trump has on the economy. And looking back now, relatively few voters in these states say the Trump presidency has been going as they expected -- more say it's gone worse than gone better.
And so Biden leads both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin today by six points in each. He's cutting into Mr. Trump's margins with the White, non-college voters who've been a key part of the Trump base. He's leading among independents -- a group that went for Mr. Trump last time -- and even peeling off a few Republicans who think things in the U.S. aren't going well.
More from the poll here.
More from the Battleground Tracker...
Do voters view Biden and Trump as moderate or extreme?
One of the Trump campaign's main attack lines portrays Joe Biden as a puppet of the radical left and stokes fears of socialism. Is this messaging resonating with voters, and conversely, how extreme or moderate do voters think President Trump is? More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/do-voters-view-biden-and-trump-as-moderate-or-extreme-opinion-poll/
8/2/20
Biden has edge in North Carolina and race is tight in Georgia -- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll
It's another two states and another two competitive contests, as concern about President Trump's handling of coronavirus continues to take a political toll on him.
Together, North Carolina and Georgia add to our picture of an expanded electoral map. Biden is up four points in North Carolina, where Democrats haven't won a presidential race since 2008. Biden is up one in Georgia, and the last time a Democrat won there, Athens' hometown band R.E.M. had just released its 1992 classic "Automatic for the People." The race today is so close, winning will be anything but automatic -- for either side.
More from the poll here.
7/30/2020
More from our Battleground Tracker:
Republicans growing more concerned about coronavirus, could that weigh on Trump?
Since the coronavirus began spreading in the U.S., Republicans have shown the least amount of concern about the outbreak. But according to our latest Battleground Tracker poll, 38% now say things are going at least "somewhat badly," up from 31% in June and the most pessimistic Republicans have been since we began asking this question in March.
While the number of Democrats and Independents who think things are going badly has also increased over time, Republicans reported the biggest month-to-month jump from June to July.
Meanwhile, 3 in 5 Republicans now say they are at least "somewhat concerned" about getting infected, up from a little more than half in June. That number remained little changed for Independents (68% vs. 66%) and for Democrats -- a large majority who have long been concerned about the virus -- 87% are at least somewhat concerned, a dip from 91% in June.
While most Republicans continue to think President Trump is doing a good job handling the coronavirus outbreak, some may be cooling on his response. Fewer Republicans say the president is doing a "very good" job compared to last month.
As we've seen throughout our CBS News polling, Trump voters are far less likely to be concerned about COVID overall. However, nearly 1 in 5 who believe the virus efforts are going badly say they may consider voting for Joe Biden in November. - by Elena Cox
This CBS News survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 2,008 U.S. adult residents. The margin of error for U.S. adults is 2.5 pts.
--
7/28/20
More from the Battleground Tracker...
Even if Schools Re-Open, Many Parents Would Keep Their Children Home
Almost Half Say Child Care Would be Difficult if Schools Stay Closed
As reported in the latest CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll, just one in five Americans wants schools to reopen to full classrooms in the fall, and even if their local schools were to reopen, most parents would be cautious. Just a third of parents of school-aged children would categorically send their children back to the classroom. Instead, 37% say "it depends", and another 31% would keep their children home. Weighing on the decision for parents is widespread concern about contracting the coronavirus, but also worries about the difficulties of providing child care if schools don't reopen, particularly among working parents. And politics looms over how Americans view this issue as well.
Concerns about safety seem to be foremost on the minds of parents when making the decision about whether they would send their children back to school if they reopened in the fall.
Parents of school-aged children tend to be more concerned than Americans overall that they or a close member of their family will contract the coronavirus: 47% of parents are very concerned, compared with 35% of Americans overall.
Just 21% of parents who are very concerned say they would send their children to school in the fall, compared to over half of parents who are either not very or not at all concerned. Like the vast majority of Americans overall, three in four parents of school-aged children believe children can both contract the coronavirus and spread it to other people. Most who feel this way want schools in their area to remain closed.
Child care seems to be another factor that parents are considering when deciding what to do about their children's education in the fall. Nearly half of parents across the country say providing child care for the children would be difficult for them if schools in their area were to remain closed. This cuts across income levels.
Those who would have more difficulty providing child-care are more likely to send their children back to school if the schools do reopen. 23% of parents who would have difficulty providing child care would keep their children home if school reopened, but this percentage rises to 37% among those for whom providing child care would not prove difficult.