Winter storm timeline for New York, New Jersey shows when heaviest snow will hit this weekend
People in New York City and the surrounding area are bracing for a major winter storm that's set to hit the region with heavy snow on top of dangerous, subfreezing weather this weekend.
New York and New Jersey are under winter storm warnings, prompting both governors to declare a state of emergency, with the forecast calling for 12 inches or more in parts of the Tri-State Area.
Gov. Kathy Hochul activated the New York National Guard to assist across NYC, Long Island and the northern suburbs during the snowstorm, which could be the city's worst since February 2021.
When will it start snowing?
Winter storm warnings are in place for the NYC area from 3 a.m. Sunday-6 p.m Monday. Once it starts snowing early Sunday morning, it will get heavier throughout the day, according to the latest models.
Here's how the storm's timeline is shaping up:
3 a.m.-7 a.m. Sunday: Snow moves into the region from west to east as the potent winter storm travels northward. Snowfall will start off light and then become moderate toward daybreak.
7 a.m.-2 p.m. Sunday: Snow becomes very heavy and may fall at rates of 1-2 inches per hour.
2 p.m-10 p.m. Sunday: The freezing line shifts northwestward as warmer air gets drawn into the system, changing the snow to a mix of freezing rain and sleet for NYC and points south and east. Plain rain is likely for the Jersey Shore and Long Island's South Shore. It's all snow — and heavy, too — north and west of NYC.
Winds will also increase, especially at the coast, gusting between 25-35 mph at times. Ice accretion may reach up to .20 inches during this time frame and may lead to downed trees and branches when mixed with the winds.
10 p.m. Sunday-7 a.m. Monday: Precipitation transitions back to snow for the entire Tri-State Area, but the storm starts winding down and snow becomes light to moderate at times. It may linger into Monday afternoon.
How much snow is NYC getting?
Despite some mixing, New York City and locations across the Tri-State Area are anticipated to receive copious amounts of snow from this storm.
In general, areas north and west of NYC are most likely to see over 12 inches of snow. In and around the five boroughs could see 8-12 inches, while locations along the coast may only see 5-10 inches.
Here's a look at the snow totals forecast for the region:
New York City: 8-12 inches
Long Island: 8-12 inches for the North Shore and western portions. The South Shore and eastern half are more likely to see 5-10".
Central Jersey and Jersey Shore: 8-12 inches inland, 5-10 inches along the coastline.
North Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut: 12" or more
Upper Hudson Valley and far northwestern New Jersey: 12" or more
