Long Island Rail Road strike could be a problem for N.Y. Gov. Kathy Hochul's reelection bid
If history is any indication, the Long Island Rail Road strike has potential to derail Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul's bid for reelection.
Although polls have Hochul comfortably ahead of her Republican opponent Bruce Blakeman, the governor might do well to remember the political consequences of the last LIRR strike 32 years ago.
Lessons from the last LIRR strike
LIRR union workers last went on strike in 1994, also an election year.
Then-Gov. Mario Cuomo, desperate to win suburban support, gave in to union demands to end the strike in two days. Cuomo, a Democrat, still lost reelection to Republican George Pataki, who entered the race as an obscure upstate senator.
Experts say it's a race Hochul should pay attention to.
"The message is clear. Independent voters in Long Island were able to get Governor Pataki elected. Independent voters in Long Island vote in high propensity, and they may give this election to Bruce Blakeman if this is mishandled," said J.C. Polanco, assistant professor at University of Mount Saint Vincent.
Hochul has so far been walking a tightrope between aggrieved union workers, who want too much, she says, and aggrieved Long Island commuters, who don't like the disruptions.
An opportunity for Republicans
A recent Siena poll had Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, trailing Hochul by 16 points. The strike could give him an opportunity to close the gap.
Blakeman said union leaders told him they're "incredible frustrated."
"They pointed out to me that there's no money for their workers, but there's $8 billion over the last three years for illegal migrants and $5.5 billion to bail out Zohran Mamdani in New York City. There's no money for Long Island, apparently," Blakeman said.
Hochul's union problems are bigger than just LIRR workers, with union pension issues still a sticking point in state budget negotiations in Albany.
"She's becoming more exposed every single day to the trade unions that she's anti-trade union. She fired 3,000 correctional officers last year because they struck for safety in the prisons, both for inmates and the officers. She scabbed the New York City nurses strike just a few months ago," said John Samuelsen, president of the Transport Workers Union.
Strike getting statewide attention
Showing fiscal competence is a good thing for Hochul, but there are other issues.
Long Island voters are already upset with Hochul about Manhattan congestion pricing, and Blakeman is very popular in Nassau and Suffolk counties. The governor winning any support there would be a plus.
Also, the strike is getting attention all over the state and Hochul has to be careful not to lose widespread union support.
