Minnesota House special election Tuesday will determine balance of power in chamber
A special election for a Twin Cities metro state House seat will determine the balance of power in the chamber on Tuesday, after the vacancy sparked a power dispute earlier in the session that brought it to a halt.
The election will conclude a political saga that's lasted months and ended up in court. DFL candidate Curtis Johnson won the House District 40B general election in November, but a judge then ruled in December he couldn't take the oath of office because he didn't live in the district, giving the GOP a one-seat advantage, at least temporarily, until there was a replacement to represent constituents there.
That means this district, which covers Shoreview and Roseville, will have an outsized impact beyond its borders. If Democrat David Gottfried wins, the chamber will return to a 67 to 67 tie, but if Republican Paul Wikstrom prevails, the GOP will have a true 68-seat majority, allowing them to advance their agenda without Democrats' support.
"Pretty much everybody at the doors that I'm talking to knows what's going on, knows the stakes of this race," said Gottfried in an interview last week.
Right now, Republicans have a one-seat advantage but neither party has 68 votes — the magic number for legislation to pass off the House floor. The vacancy prompted Democrats to boycott the first few weeks of session in order to keep Republicans from seizing total control for two years. In early February, both sides came to a deal to end the stalemate and chart the course for how the House will operate under a power-sharing agreement if there's a tie once again.
Wikstrom is running again as the GOP candidate. The district favors the DFL — Wikstrom lost by nearly 30 percentage points in November — but he believes the residency controversy gives him a unique opportunity. And special elections typically have lower turnout.
"Some people are not going to change their vote regardless. But in this election, I think there's a certain demographic within the Democrats that they're certainly listening to my message," Wikstrom said in an interview.
Gottfried said transparency is "paramount" to his campaign, which is owning" what happened — even if he wasn't the candidate whose residency was challenged last year. But his focus is on the future and what his seat means for the balance of power.
"Defending that bill to make sure that we can take care of our loved ones when they're going through severe hardship without having to worry about where a paycheck is coming from is something that is near and dear and personal to me" he said of the paid family and medical leave law some Republicans want to delay or roll back. "I think restoring the tie allows us to defend that."
Even if the House returns to a tie, Republicans will maintain a new oversight committee tasked with probing the reported fraud in public programs and GOP Speaker Lisa Demuth will remain in that role, though her powers will be somewhat curtailed under the terms of the agreement.
Wikstrom said tackling the unlawful use of state funds and curbing state spending as Minnesota stares down a potential $6 billion deficit are top priorities.
"The overarching theme is really about truth and trust, giving truth a second chance in Minnesota, and bringing balance to our state government, which is badly needed," Wikstrom said, citing the DFL trifecta of the previous two years.
Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, the Democrats' stronghold over state government is over. Whether the House stands at a tie or Republicans gain control, both parties will be forced to work together to pass the next two-year budget before session ends in May — a must-do item to avoid a government shutdown.
