Mike Lawler-Cait Conley race in N.Y.-17 continues to be tight. Here's how experts say each can win.

New York election officials say early voting is surging across the state. That includes in the lower Hudson Valley, where more than 126,000 votes have already been cast in Westchester Rockland Putnam and Dutchess counties.

Driving the turnout is the toss-up 17th Congressional District race between Republican incumbent Mike Lawler and Democratic challenger Cait Conley.

Lawler hopes to defy the odds for a third time by winning in a district with 70,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. He outperformed Kamala Harris there in 2024.

Veteran Hudson Valley reporter David McKay Wilson says a key for Lawler is turnout in his Rockland County base.

"Well, Mike has to continue walking this tightrope that he's walked for years, engaging the MAGA base while also bringing Democrats to his fold," Wilson said. "Lawler has a strong affinity with the Orthodox community there. So that's going to be, that's part of his Rockland coalition, the Orthodox."

Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report said Lawler continues to be popular in a decidedly blue district.

"The reason it is still rated a toss-up is a testament to the congressman's strength as a campaigner and his proven ability to overperform the president in this district where the president is deeply underwater at this point," Covey said.

Covey said a key to victory for Conley is pushing back on attempts to define her as a left-leaning Democrat.

"She has long worked in the national security space. She's, of course, a retired Army officer who was in the Special Forces, and so, she certainly has a very different profile than the socialists who have been successful in running in New York City," Covey said.

Another key for Conley is union support with canvassing and phone banking to get Democrats to the polls.

"Just a matter of getting out that Democratic vote and making sure that Democratic enthusiasm is high in the district will be important," Covey said.

The final day of early voting is on Sunday.