How will Jayson Tatum perform after his Achilles injury? Here's what a doctor says.
Jayson Tatum has a long road ahead after the Celtics superstar ruptured his Achilles during Boston's playoff series with the New York Knicks. But Tatum is already heading down that road, after he underwent surgery for the injury on Tuesday.
There is no timetable for his return, but Tatum will likely miss most or all of the 2025-26 NBA season. When he does get back, the question becomes what he'll look like and if he'll be able to continue to play at his superstar level.
Tatum's chances are good, according to Dr. Lafi Khalil of Henry Ford Health.
Jayson Tatum's ruptured Achilles
Dr. Khalil studied NBA players who sustained Achilles tendon ruptures going back to the 1970s, and found that 72 percent of players returned to the league. Those who did return took a step back in their first year, and their usage obviously went down compared to their pre-injury days. But eventually, most players were able to return to form or something close to it.
"Overall, when comparing them to themselves and their pre-injury baseline, they had less game utilization and they had a reduced production and performance -- which we measured with PER, their Player Efficiency Rating -- than their own pre-injury baseline. But when we compared them to healthy controls, we really only saw that reduction in the first year," said Khalil.
"By the time we got out to three years after surgery, they had maybe played in less games or started less game, but overall their minutes played and performance was generally about the same," Dr. Khalil noted. "That being said, players with Achilles tendon injuries did play less overall seasons after returning than the healthy controls."
Superstars like Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Durant continued to have Hall of Fame careers after their recovery, and Dr. Khalil says Tatum will have a chance to do the same thanks to his young age (27) and the evolving nature of the NBA.
"There is a lot more finesse, a lot more skill, and a lot more shooting. Jayson Tatum will be able to utilize those aspects of his game, even if his explosiveness takes a step back," said Dr. Khalil. "I think with Tatum and his age, his skill level, and superstardom, he has a remarkable chance to come back and be a very effective player."
