Republicans roll into Dallas for first-ever midterm convention in Texas with more than history at stake

Generally, the biggest pep rally of the week would be for the legendary Texas Friday night lights or a college matchup. Not this week.

Republicans are flying and driving in to fill up the American Airlines Center for something the party has never tried before: a national midterm convention designed to turn political enthusiasm into votes with control of Congress hanging in the balance.

The two-day gathering begins Wednesday, Sept. 9, in Dallas. President Trump and Vice President JD Vance headline a lineup of more than 100 speakers as Republicans will make their case to voters less than two months before Election Day. The RNC expects about 20,000 people, making it the party's largest convention in a decade.

While the spotlight will be national, some of the biggest stakes are right here in Texas.

Why Dallas, why now?

CBS News Texas' Eye on Politics reporter Jack Fink believes much of what may transpire could depend on what Mr. Trump says.

"President Trump is obviously still very popular with a majority of the Republicans," Fink said. "He can motivate Republicans like no other to get out and vote."

Republicans believe they will need that motivation, especially as the party enters the final stretch of the midterms, facing political headwinds nationally and competitive races at home. The RNC has said the convention is intended to highlight the Trump administration's record and rally voters behind Republican candidates as the GOP fights to maintain control of Congress.

Expect Republicans to lean heavily on tax cuts, immigration and border security, the economy and education. Democrats are offering a much different assessment of the administration's record, including its immigration enforcement policies, while affordability and the ongoing war with Iran add another layer to voters' concerns.

Republicans are coming to Dallas with a sales pitch — and a turnout operation.

"This is meant to fire up the base and get them out and vote and get them excited," Fink said.

Trump likes the state, Republican leaders told CBS News Texas when Dallas was selected. Texas is also home to one of the country's most closely watched U.S. Senate races, where Trump's endorsed candidate, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. 

The latest numbers explain some of the urgency.

VoteHub, which is working with the CBS News Data Desk, told CBS News Texas that its current polling average has Talarico ahead of Paxton by 2.4 percentage points. But its broader model considers the race a toss-up, in part because some undecided voters have previously supported Republican candidates.

That makes Texas more than a backdrop for this convention.

Trump, Vance, Gov. Greg Abbott, Paxton, and other Republican leaders will use Dallas to argue for keeping Texas — and Congress — in Republican hands.

What to expect at the RNC convention

Trump is scheduled to address the convention on both days, delivering the opening-night keynote Wednesday. Vance headlines Thursday evening, with Trump returning for closing remarks. 

Outside, expect a different kind of production.

Victory Park and the streets surrounding the American Airlines Center will be under heightened security. CBS News Texas has reported that tents, gates, and staging are already going up around the arena, with local, state, and federal law enforcement involved in security preparations. Road closures and checkpoints will affect the area during the convention. (CBS News⁠)

Inside, expect a rally.

Outside, expect a fortress.

And beyond the gates, expect both parties to be watching whether any of it moves voters.

Dallas has seen this stage before — but not like this

The midterm convention is a first for Republicans, but a Republican convention in Dallas is not.

Remember 1984?

Forty-two years ago, Republicans gathered here to renominate former President Ronald Reagan. The political landscape was different, the purpose was different, and the stakes were different. 

This time, there is no presidential nomination waiting at the end.

There is a November election.

And turnout could be enormous. VoteHub has told CBS News Texas it expects unusually heavy participation in Texas this midterm cycle. Democrats are motivated, Fink said, which puts pressure on Republicans to match that energy.

"Democrats are very motivated to get out and vote," Fink said. "And that's why the Republicans want their people to be motivated as well."

For two days in Dallas, Republicans will have the arena, the lights and some of the party's biggest names.

The question that won't be answered inside American Airlines Center is whether the energy follows voters home — and eventually, to the ballot box.