Texas turnout more Democratic in first two days of early voting than in 2024, VoteHub says, but too early to draw conclusions

Nearly 1.5 million Texans cast ballots during the first two days of early voting, according to VoteHub, as candidates in major statewide races make a final push to get their supporters to the polls.

In Allen on Wednesday, Gov. Greg Abbott urged supporters to vote as soon as possible and encouraged family and friends to do the same.

"Tell them they got to go vote today or tomorrow to make sure their vote counts in this election. Are you with me?" Abbott said.

His Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, has also urged her supporters to vote. In addition to meeting directly with voters, Hinojosa said she is spending heavily to get her message out.

"People are turning out," Hinojosa said. "We are on broadcast TV. This is an expensive state to run in, and we're playing at the high rollers table, but that's because the payout is so high."

Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, which is working with the CBS News Data Desk, said the electorate during the first two days of early voting appeared more Democratic-leaning than during the same period in 2024.

"For the people who voted on the first day, on Monday, in Texas, we think that the electorate was about 10 points more Democratic than it was the first day of the 2024 in-person early voting," Donnini said. "But we think the second day was a little bit better for Republicans in the sense that maybe it was only eight or nine points more blue than the same day in 2024."

VoteHub estimates that 32% of Texans with a history of voting in Democratic primaries cast ballots during the first two days of early voting, compared with nearly 21% of those with a history of voting in Republican primaries.

Tracking partisan turnout in Texas is more difficult because voters do not register by party, unlike in some other states. Donnini cautioned that it is too early to draw conclusions from the turnout trends.

President Donald Trump won Texas by 14 percentage points in 2024. This year, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico has led Republican Ken Paxton in most polls.

A CBS News poll conducted Oct. 8-16 showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 49%. The RealClearPolitics average of polls conducted Oct. 5-19 showed Talarico ahead by 1.9 percentage points, 48.2% to 46.3%.

Despite Democratic enthusiasm this year, Donnini cautioned that polling numbers do not automatically translate into election victories.

"To win a Trump-plus-14 state like Texas, you need two things: If you're James Talarico or Hinojosa, you need one, a good electorate," Donnini said. "You need your people to be mobilized and come out just to make the job easier. Then, the job is win over people who voted for Donald Trump. It's that simple."

Meanwhile, Abbott maintains a lead in the governor's race.

The CBS News poll showed Abbott leading Hinojosa 52% to 48%. The RealClearPolitics polling average showed Abbott ahead by 2.2 percentage points, 49.1% to 46.9%.

As of Wednesday night, nine days of early voting remained in Texas.

VoteHub projects that two-thirds of Texas voters will cast their ballots during early voting this year and that total turnout could approach the number of ballots cast in the 2024 presidential election.

Watch Eye on Politics at 7:30 a.m. Sunday on CBS News Texas, on air and streaming.

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