Here's the First Alert Weather Team's "super" El Niño NYC seasonal snow forecast

Winter is just weeks away, and a big question this year is will the "super" El Niño lower the snowfall this season? 

The First Alert Weather Team has a look at your NYC seasonal snowfall forecast. 

New York City gets on average 29.8 inches of snow per season. 

"This El Niño is off the charts," said Dr. John Krasting, New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University. 

"El Niño is when tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures warm to a half degree above average," Krasting said. "We're now pushing 2.5 degrees above that threshold, five times what would classify as a normal El Niño."

Nelson Vaz of the National Weather Service says that means for us a "very strong intrusion of air masses from the Pacific Ocean."

That intrusion typically leads to warmer and wetter than normal weather, locally, Vaz said. 

"What that brings is a lot of storms that run across from the Pacific Ocean, across the U.S., across southern parts of the U.S. into our area," Vaz said. 

More storms does mean more snow, though. Cold air has to be in place, and only then does a whopper of a snowstorm become possible. 

Our most recent "super" El Niño winter was in 2016. In January of that year, New York City got slammed with its biggest snowfall on record, 27.5 inches. An overall 32.8 inches of snow fell in Central Park that season. 

Other "super" El Niño winters reveal a vast range. During the 1997-1998 winter, just 5.5 inches of snow fell. 

Krasting says seasonal forecasts can be problematic. 

"I wouldn't advise anybody to put money on a seasonal forecast in any year," Krasting said. 

"We're going to have to look at shorter-term patterns," Vaz said. 

Nonetheless, the First Alert Weather seasonal forecast is calling for 18-28 inches of snow this winter in Central Park. For Southern New Jersey, more snow is likely as super El Niño delivers a stronger signal for snow.