N.Y. Gov. Kathy Hochul's lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman slips to single digits in new poll
The race for New York governor between incumbent Kathy Hochul and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has narrowed to single digits, according to a new Siena poll.
Hochul's lead over Blakeman is down to 50-41% according to the latest Siena Poll of likely New York voters. That's a marginal decrease from her 49-39% lead in August.
That said, the latest Quinnipiac Poll tells an entirely different story, with Hochul holding a commanding 58-39% lead.
Breaking down the Siena Poll's findings
"With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman. She now has the support of 50% of voters and saw her favorability and job approval ratings edge into positive territory. He now trails by single digits – well, nine points – in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. "At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin by 17 points, 54-37%, before going on to win by six points."
The Siena Poll also found the state is headed in the wrong direction 49-38%, up from 47-43% in August. An even larger majority, 66-28%, say the country overall is headed in the wrong direction, up from 62-31% in August.
The poll shows that while half of likely New York voters say they'll be supporting Hochul, two-thirds of respondents believe Hochul will win, including 37% of Republicans.
"Given a nine-point race, it might seem surprising that two-thirds of voters think Hochul will win. On the other hand, voters haven't elected a Republican governor in 24 years, and there is that two-to-one Democratic enrollment edge, so it may not be surprising that more than one-third of Republicans think Hochul will win, as do 61% of independents, although only 39% of independents currently plan to vote for her," Greenberg said.
"All polls continue to show Kathy Hochul's downward spiral and me closing the gap as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half. And let's remember: at this point in the 2022 race, a Siena poll had Lee Zeldin trailing Kathy Hochul by 17 points. Today, our race is in single digits, with one-third of New Yorkers still needing to learn more about me," Blakeman said.
President Trump's endorsement of Blakeman is a negative for his campaign, likely voters said in a 51-30% split. Meanwhile, the poll found New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsement of Hochul will be a positive for her campaign by a 50-30% margin.
"Currently, Blakeman is doing a better job with Republicans, leading 88-8%, than Hochul is with Democrats, leading 81-11%. Additionally, Blakeman is holding onto a narrow lead among independents, 44-39%, nearly the same as last month, 45-40%," Greenberg said. "Hochul has a dominant lead in New York City, 61-27%, and the two are running neck and neck in the downstate suburbs – Hochul 48-46% – and upstate, Blakeman 47-44%."
"Bruce Blakeman's Donald Trump obsession is a problem for this state and for his campaign, and New Yorkers can see it. No one wants a Trump puppet in the governor's mansion who will cut their healthcare, raise their costs, and let ICE trample their rights – they trust Governor Hochul's record of investing in public safety, lowering crime, and putting money back in their pockets – and they know she'll fight for their families, not Trump," Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said.
Hochul's favorability has ticked up 48-46%, which is an improvement from 46-49% in August. Her job approval is also up 48-47%, an improvement from 48-49% last month. Blakeman's favorability is 35-34%. In August, it was 33-26%.
The poll finds Hochul enjoys small leads over Blakeman on affordability, public safety and undocumented immigrants in the state, according to Greenberg.
Other poll findings include widespread disapproval in New York for renaming Lake Ontario as Lake America, 74-19%.
Also, opposition to new, large data centers in New York after the current moratorium expires still draws strong support, 63-25%.
And what about the president's challenges to voting by mail?
"When it comes to Trump's push to largely eliminate mail-in voting, New Yorkers disagree with Trump 59-39%. While Republicans strongly agree with Trump on eliminating mail-in voting, Democrats strongly disagree, and independents disagree 54-45%. Majorities of upstaters and downstaters, men and women, and white, Black and Latino voters disagree with Trump on mail-in ballots," Greenberg said.
Pundit casts doubt on Blakeman's Mamdani strategy
Blakeman is also hoping to take a bite out of Hochul's lead after gaining the endorsement of former Democratic City Councilman Robert Holden. Blakeman made that announcement on Tuesday at a Middle Village, Queens, bagel establishment.
"Everyone knows dozens of people that have left this state. It's unaffordable. [That's] bad leadership. Hochul exemplifies that," Holden said.
Blakeman, who has been campaigning heavily around the state, made it clear that he's hoping to pick up the votes of moderate Democrats and independent and disaffected Jewish voters by tying the governor to Mamdani, a democratic socialist.
"Kathy Hochul is a doormat for Zohran Mandami. He's running the Democratic party now. He's calling the shots," Blakeman said.
Hochul, who has had something of a Rose Garden strategy, was not available for an interview on Wednesday, but her campaign put out a new ad labeling Blakeman a puppet of President Trump.
Law professor J.C. Polanco says what may be upending the Blakeman strategy is Mr. Trump's decision to embrace Mamdani.
"He called him a great mayor, called him a smart guy. Not calling him what we thought was going to be the talking point in experience. We thought that was going to be the talking point. None of that is resonating with voters," Polanco said.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail
In other races, Attorney General Letitia James enjoys a comfortable 52-39% lead over her Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy, which is a drop from 54-36% in August. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads challenger Joseph Hernandez 56-33%.
"Unless Komatireddy can find a way to get more known to likely voters in the next few weeks, it appears that James is in a strong position heading into the home stretch of the campaign," Greenberg said.
