Former Iran hostage Barry Rosen calls the war "a lose-lose situation for the United States"

Former hostage Barry Rosen was the U.S. press attaché at the U.S. embassy in Tehran when the mullahs overthrew the Shah in 1979. 

Rosen was among the group of Americans held hostage there for 444 days. He is the co-founder of Hostage Aid Worldwide. 

Speaking with CBS News New York, Rosen calls the current war in Iran a "lose-lose situation" for the United States. 

All eyes on Iran's Revolutionary Guard  

Rosen said the idea of affecting regime change in Iran by killing the top leaders may be simplistic. President Trump has urged the Iranian people to topple the government now that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several of his key aides have been killed, saying the government "will be yours to take." 

Does Rosen see that as a realistic possibility?

"No. I don't there's any possibility right now, perhaps even for weeks, for anything like this to happen. We have to see whether the Revolutionary Guards will be staunchly behind the regime," Rosen said. "If there's any defection from Revolutionary Guards ... then there is a possibility." 

"I could actually see chaos" 

Rosen asked what the endgame of the attack on Iran is.

"Is there anything that we want to see happen? That is, if we want to see a democratic Iran, we might be seeing more chaos in Iran," he said. "There's no real demonstrated opposition to the regime, even though the Iranian people themselves, the majority of Iranian people, want to see an open Iran.

"I could actually see chaos more than anything else," he added. "I think at this moment, I don't see any movement towards any open society in Iran. I am fearful there might be chaos inside Iran, and there could be even dismemberment of the country. We just don't know what will happen." 

"The regime is still intact"

What impact does killing the ayatollah have?

"I think the regime is still intact. As many Iranians who have been killed by the United States, there is a grand supply of new rising Iranian leadership that is pro-Islamic republic," Rosen said. "I think right now, yes, Iran is weakened militarily, absolutely. But I don't see the regime at all falling apart. The leadership will continue. There will always be a replacement for another one. This has been going on for years ... they've had this replacement system going on for years and years." 

What about Iran's nuclear program?

"I don't think right now the issue of enrichment is the purpose of what's going on," Rosen said. "For me, I'm almost amazed that the president has not come out and said what he really wants, what is the endgame. Why is he doing it right now, when there were negotiations going on that seemed to be moving Iran, in many ways, to lowering its enrichment." 

"A lose-lose situation"

What effect will this attack have on relations with our allies?

"I think it's a lose-lose situation for the United States. Already, Iranians have hit Cyprus, and the British are really discussing what they can do and what they cannot do. The U.K. population does not want to see the British in any military operation at all. And I don't see the E.U. at all supporting the United States in this initiative, at all," Rosen said. "They don't want to get involved in a long-term situation. Look, the Iraq situation has taught many people in many governments in the E.U., too, that it went nowhere. There was no purpose in it at all. It was a lose-lose situation. And I think Afghanistan absolutely was the same thing." 

Is Iran's regime on the brink?

"Trump knows that right now that he has not degraded Iran to a situation where Iran will give up. The only way anything can happen like that is boots on the ground, and the American people will not stand for it, and many in Congress will not stand for it, and many of his own supporters will not support that. Air power has always been proven not to be the winner in any war," Rosen said. "I don't see this, anything, happening, unless and if the United States committed boots on the ground, and the United States is not going to do that. I think that Trump is going to say 'I won, I've done what I had to do, now Iranian people you're free now to overturn the regime.' And he knows, and everybody else knows, that's impossible." 

So why did the president attack now?

"That's going to be the $64,000 question," Rosen said. 

A key campaign issue for President Trump's first term in office was withdrawing from the nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama. That deal is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Rosen thinks that's a factor. 

"A sense of retribution against previous administrations in the United States. Most likely the Obama administration. Look, the Obama administration and the JCPOA was working. It was working. It was limiting Iran. And he, Trump, moved out. And I think from there on, he moved to limit Iran and make life miserable for Iranians," Rosen said. 

"Mowing the lawn" in America's future with Iran?

Ray Takeyh is an Iranian-American and senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He knows all too well that America's relationship with Iran has bedeviled presidents for decades. 

Takeyh says the decision to bomb Iran now may commit the country and future commanders-in-chief to attacking Iran on a regular basis. 

"You need to bomb Iran when there is no nuclear urgency, and bomb it periodically," Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The Israelis call that 'mowing the lawn.' You don't just mow the lawn once. You have to go back and do it again."

Takeyh says the president may be overestimating his belieff that the people of Iran will rise up and overthrow the regime. 

"I would be on the regime's survival and sustaining its power," Takeyh said.