Trump saw record gains with Black, Latino voters in 2024. Will conservative minority voters stick around for midterms?

In the 2024 election, President Trump, then a candidate, received record support among Black and Latino voters. However, as we gear toward the midterm election, will that support hold strong?

In 2020, candidate Joe Biden won Hispanic voters by 25%. Flash forward to 2024, Kamala Harris won Hispanic voters by just 3%.

Mr. Trump doubled his support with Black voters — in 2020, 8% of Black voters nationwide supported him. In 2024, that support jumped to 15% of Black voters.

University of Minnesota Professor Michael Minta is an expert on minority voting. He thinks the Trump surge was more of an anti-Harris wave.

"There's still some concerns and uneasiness in the communities, Black, White and Latino, Asian Americans, in terms of, is a woman ready to be president in the United States?" said Minta.

A Bayan Research Center poll found that even in communities Mr. Trump disparaged, his support grew. In 2020, 13% of Somali voters, most of whom lived in Minnesota, cast ballots for Trump. That figure jumped to 23% in 2024.

Minta says some of the appeal is the "Trump swagger" that's featured in rap and hip-hop songs.

"Trump has been kind of like this model of success, right? So successful businessman. He's this playboy, and everyone, even in many of the rap, hip hop songs, he's featured in songs," said Minta.

But according to new polling by the Washington Post, that support is declining: Mr. Trump is 11% down among Black voters, 6% drop in Hispanic voters and a 4% drop among Asian voters. Minta sees a disillusionment with being taken for granted. 

"The fastest demographic that's growing in the United States are the Black, Latino, Asian American population. So many, many of these activist groups have said you need to do more to mobilize these groups and put resources in there," said Minta.