Will a Raúl Castro indictment lead to an arrest? Not likely, expert says
The United States will announce federal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro on Wednesday in an historic move carrying the weight of decades of tension between Washington, D.C. and Havana – including the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown.
Dr. Andy Gómez, retired professor of Cuban Studies at University of Miami and expert on Cuba relations joined CBS News Miami on Wednesday morning to break down the significance of the announcement and what it could mean moving forward.
"First and foremost, I think it's going to be a very difficult day for the families of the four men who were shot down in the Straits," he said. "It will bring back some very sad memories."
Raúl Castro is 94-years-old and turns 95 next month, so will his indictment lead to an arrest? Not likely, Gómez said. This is likely to just put more pressure on the Cuba.
"I do not see anyone in the Cuban government turning over Raúl Castro to the United States," he said. "I don't see Raúl Castro turning himself in."
He said that, in a way, this could be trying to get the Cuban government to come to the table and negotiate in good faith.
In February 1996, three airplanes from Brothers to the Rescue took off from a Miami-area airport. Two of them were shot down by a Cuban fighter jet, killing four people.
Wednesday's indictment will be significant because the story is personal not only for the victim's families, but for an entire community.
Gomez said to think of the symbolism of the indictment on Wednesday – Cuban Independence Day.
"So the symbolism, also it's very powerful for the Cuban American community," he said. "However, the reality is that Raúl is still going to remain in power. And we'll have to see if the Cubans now are going to be put additional pressure and be willing to negotiate. And I sincerely have my doubts."
But, Gómez continued, the Cuban government is under intense pressure.
Their infrastructure is falling apart. They cannot fix it," he said. "The 8.3 million Cubans on the island, their needs are greater than I've ever seen them. So, the Cuban government is under tremendous pressure to deliver."
He said the lives of Cubans need to get better, and he doens't see Cuba's government doing it.
"So, they have no choice than to come to the United States and see what they're going to be able to negotiate," he said. "However, we have to keep in mind that their biggest issue has also been not losing political control, political power."