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Lauren Boebert faces competitive Colorado primary, Republican analyst says "no guarantee" she'll win in Congressional District 4

It's been a tough year for Rep. Lauren Boebert
It's been a tough year for Rep. Lauren Boebert 04:16

Change is the theme this year with the Republican representation in Colorado's Congressional delegation, and one of the most watched races to fill one of the open U.S. House seats will take place in District 4. Lauren Boebert is vying for the Republican nomination in a primary there that will happen in less than 13 weeks.

GOP debate running in the 4th and 8th Congressional Districts
Rep. Lauren Boebert answers a question during a debate for GOP candidates running in the 4th Congressional Districts at the Fort Lupton Recreation Center in Fort Lupton, Colorado on January 25, 2024. RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

CBS Colorado Republican political analyst Dick Wadhams says the well-known and controversial congresswoman faces a big challenge in the June 25 election.

"She's got a competitive primary in front of her," Wadhams told CBS Colorado Political Specialist Shaun Boyd. "There's no guarantee she's going to win this nomination."

Colorado's 4th Congressional District includes Loveland and Douglas County on the Front Range as well as most of the Eastern Plains. CBS

Boebert currently represents Colorado's 3rd Congressional District and has a leg up over her competitors in her new district when it comes to name recognition and fundraising.

"She's still probably got advantages nobody else has, like money and visibility," Wadhams said, referring to her CD4 competition.

But a recent poll commissioned by the nonpartisan Colorado Polling Institute asked voters statewide about their feelings about Boebert and other prominent lawmakers in the state. While a total of 48% of Republicans had a "strongly favorable" view of Boebert, a surprising 36% had a "strongly unfavorable" view of her. Wadhams said it's a cause for concern.

"Her fundamental problems are certainly exposed in this poll. I mean, she's very polarizing. She had to move from a pretty good Republican district to an overwhelmingly Republican district in order to think she could win re-election," he said.

Aside from Boebert, the pool of GOP candidates running for the CD4 nomination include Deborah Flora, Jerry Sonnenberg, Ted Harvey, Richard Holtorf and Mike Lynch. The primary winner is expected to be a heavy favorite in the general election in November. District 4 has one of the highest concentration of conservative voters in the Centennial State.

The CD4 seat is currently empty after last month's resignation by former Rep. Ken Buck, and the special election to fill out the rest of his term takes place on the same day as the primary. The choice of Greg Lopez as the Republican candidate to represent his party in that special election should help Boebert's candidacy, says CBS Colorado Democratic analyst Mike Dino.

"If there was a strategy behind it, I thought it was pretty brilliant in the way that you just get a placeholder to fill in and that person -- whoever is in that special election -- doesn't affect the primary," Dino said. "I think that's a plus for Boebert. She did support Greg running as a placeholder."

Dino says Boebert has a big advantage in the primary race because her CD4 campaign is endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

"She's in a good spot," he said.

While family matters have generated negatives headlines for Boebert in recent months, Wadhams said he doesn't think Boebert's announcement this week that she has May-Thurner Syndrome will hurt her campaign. 

"Listening to her and her campaign, I think she's going to have a full recovery. And that's good. Nobody wants to see her in a bad health situation," Wadhams said.

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