White Christmas for 2026? Here's a meteorologist's take on the Old Farmer's Almanac weather forecast.

With Halloween in the rearview and sunsets now in the 4 p.m. hour, we might as well start talking about winter in Massachusetts. That is exactly what the Old Farmer's Almanac is doing with the release of their "White Christmas Outlook."

Sounds a lot like clickbait doesn't it? I couldn't agree more.

However, I feel some sense of duty to bring some context to their forecast now that it is out there for all to see.

Old Farmer's Almanac White Christmas weather forecast

First a quick reminder on the definition of a white Christmas: There must be at least 1" of snow on the ground at your location as of 7 a.m. Christmas morning.

The Almanac is forecasting that to be the case across much of central and northern New England as well as a good portion of the Mountain West.

They have somewhat lower odds across the Ohio River Valley, the Northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest.

This forecast looks quite similar to the most recent 30-year average seen here from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

And, in New England, it looks awfully "chalky" as well. 

Here are our typical chances of a white Christmas locally:

And, a zoomed in version of the Almanac's map:

Essentially, they are forecasting snow in the areas that, on average, have a greater than 50% chance by Dec. 25.

This includes northern Worcester County, Western Massachusetts and all of central and northern New England. They're not exactly going out on a limb.

Odds of a white Christmas for 2026

If you want my opinion, given the Super El Niño this winter, the odds of a white Christmas should be LOWER than average across the entire northern tier of the United States.

The National Weather Service temperature outlook for the next three months shows the likelihood of above-average temperatures stretching from the Pacific Northwest, through the Upper Midwest and right through the Northeast.

Most of our weather models show the exact same thing, a very typical El Niño look.

Of course, it only takes one strategically timed snowstorm to leave an inch of snow on the ground by Dec. 25, we certainly cannot rule that out anywhere in New England.

But, given the massive El Niño, if I were an oddsmaker, I would be heavily favoring a brown Christmas and also a below-average snowfall for the winter season. Looking back at all the winters with strong El Niño's in the last several decades, they all had below-average snowfall in Boston.

Another common fingerprint of strong El Niño winters: A very mild and snowless start to the season.

Typically, if the cold and snow do make an appearance, it is towards the end of winter or early in the spring.

The WBZ-TV NEXT Weather Team will be issuing our official winter forecast in just a few weeks. We shall see if anything changes by then.