Could Massachusetts get hit with a nor'easter this weekend? Here's what the weather forecast says.
After another record setting, top-ten snowstorm for Boston, it's hard to ignore what may be coming next for Massachusetts.
Anyone else getting vibes from the historic winter of 2014-2015 yet?
It's winter storm tracking season, that time of year when you can't really make plans without some hesitation. Frequent questions heard in the weather office: Could that storm blow up my weekend? Is my flight going to be delayed or canceled?
Sometimes we just get into stormy weekend patterns. Nearly all of the snow Boston received in December (3.3" of 4.3") came on the weekend. Our two January storms have both arrived on Sunday and spilled into Monday.
Bombogenesis "a lock this weekend"
Our next potential storm is on Sunday.
This one has enormous potential. It will be a classic, powerful, and very deep ocean storm.
Here's a word we haven't used in a while: Bombogenesis.
This is a term for a rapidly deepening storm system (low pressure area) that, by rule, must drop by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours.
We believe that is a lock this weekend. Models are currently predicting the central pressure to drop by more than 30 millibars between Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
This will rile up the ocean something fierce. The forecasted wave heights offshore look similar to that of a hurricane.
Here is what we know
A storm system will form and emerge out of the Gulf and deepen into a very powerful storm east of the Carolinas this weekend.
It will be a much stronger storm than last weekend's by just about every meteorological measure, most importantly, wind and waves.
Unfortunately, it is simply too early in the evolution of the storm to confidently predict its track and subsequent impacts to New England and the rest of the East Coast.
Weekend storm scenarios
At this juncture, we still have several possible tracks and scenarios.
- A classic nor'easter track for southern New England with the center of the storm passing near or inside of the 40N/70W "benchmark". The impacts of this would be massive. Destructive winds, major coastal flooding and a boatload more snow. We are giving this a 1 in 4 chance.
- A track just outside the benchmark, leading to our area being fringed. In this scenario, the biggest impacts would be felt at the Coast and over SE Massachusetts. Still, some wind, snow, and coastal issues, but we would avoid the worst-case situation. We are giving this a 1 in 2 chance.
- A total miss for our area, out to sea. Chances: 1 in 4.
Why do odds favor the fringe track?
Why did we up the odds on the fringe track?
In the last 24 hours, there has been a bit of a model trend toward the center of the storm passing outside of 40N/70W, the benchmark for classic New England nor'easters.
Since we are giving slight favor towards a fringe track, this map shows our current concern level for storm impacts in southern New England on Sunday.
The immediate coastline, southeastern MA, and the Cape/Islands have the highest risk of impacts. Those include wind, waves, coastal flooding and snowfall.
The farther north and west you live, the less the risk, for now.
Not too early to prepare
It is not too early to take some action. Over the next few days, it would be prudent to start preparing just in case we get another major blow next weekend.
Clear out any house vents and consider clearing your roof if possible (use extreme caution).
Thankfully, the storm we just got was largely light and fluffy. If you take an average roof with two feet of light/fluffy snow on it, you are talking about a weight of more than 12,000 pounds. That is equal to approximately two SUVs or trucks on your roof, above your heads. A little math tells us this equates to about eight pounds per square foot (again on an average size roof with a typical pitch). Most roofs can withstand weight up to about 20 pounds per square foot, so we are well within the comfortable range at the moment.
Worst case scenario, we add another 1-2 feet of snow on top this weekend, (with very little melting this week), then we would have true reason for concern.
So, when will we know for sure? Wednesday will likely be another day like today, watching model trends and perhaps, narrowing down our scenarios. Once we get within 48-72 hours from the storm's arrival, (Thursday and Friday) we will have a lot more data to work with and should be able to provide a more confident track and impact-related forecast.
Our WBZ NEXT Weather Team has you covered. We will provide frequent updates all week on WBZ-TV and WBZ.com. When we know, you know.
