These 4 Pennsylvania Congressional Districts could decide balance of power in Congress

With Labor Day in the rearview mirror comes the onslaught of political campaign season. Control of Congress hangs in the balance in this year's midterm elections.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, as of Sept. 8, Republicans maintain a narrow, four-seat majority. The Keystone State could again hold the key to which party controls Washington's lower chamber, with experts pointing to four competitive seats, all currently held by the GOP, up for grabs in November.

7th Congressional District

The Lehigh Valley-centric district is one of the swingiest areas in the swingiest of states.

Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie flipped the district during the GOP's red wave of 2024, defeating incumbent Democrat Susan Wild. But he won his race by just over 4,000 votes, and according to The Downballot, he ran behind President Trump in his district.

Republicans, who won control of Congress and the White House in the 2024 elections, face a series of headwinds this time around.

Generally, the party of the president loses seats during the midterm. Mr. Trump's approval ratings have also slid, tabbed at just 39% in Pennsylvania in a July Quinnipiac survey.

Sitting lawmakers are facing questions about the economy, data centers and the war in Iran.

Mr. Trump also not being on the ballot could dampen turnout from his base.

Democrat and retired firefighter Bob Brooks is slated to challenge Mackenzie in November after emerging from a four-person primary in the spring. Brooks has the backing of both Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and progressive U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Cook Political Report Race Rating: Toss Up

8th and 10th Congressional Districts

Just outside the Philadelphia region lie two other competitive districts with similar situations to the 7th. The 8th Congressional District, encompassing much of northeastern Pennsylvania, and the 10th district of Harrisburg and its surrounding areas are being closely watched.

In the 8th District, Republican Rob Bresnahan defeated longtime Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in 2024 by just over 6,000 votes.

Republican Rep. Scott Perry's race in the 10th District was even tighter, fending off Democrat and former TV news anchor Janelle Stelson by just over 5,000 votes.

Data from The Downballot also shows both Bresnahan and Perry ran well behind Mr. Trump in their respective districts two years ago.

Polling shows Republicans could also be losing the battle for enthusiasm. A Franklin & Marshall College survey from late August showed 48% of Pennsylvanians support the Democratic nominee for Congress on a generic ballot, compared to just 36% who backed Republicans.

Bresnahan will face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti in November. Perry is due for a rematch with Stelson.

Cook Political Report Race Rating:

8th District: Toss Up

10th District: Toss Up

1st Congressional District

The seat that encompasses Bucks County and a sliver of Montgomery County has long been represented by Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. While Democrats will make a play for the purple district, experts say this one is likely their biggest uphill climb.

Unlike the previously discussed districts, Fitzpatrick's 2024 race was not particularly close. He won reelection then by more than 59,000 votes, just shy of 13 percentage points. Fitzpatrick also well outpaced Mr. Trump in his district during the 2024 cycle.

The Congressman has clashed with Mr. Trump at times over the last year-and-a-half. Fitzpatrick said he would move to "kill" the president's controversial anti-weaponization fund. In July, he also became one of four House Republicans who voted to limit Mr. Trump's war powers in Iran.

In May, Trump took a swipe at Fitzpatrick, without naming him directly, while responding to a question from Fitzpatrick's now-wife Fox News correspondent Jacqui Heinrich.

"She's married to a certain Congressman. He likes voting against Trump," the president said. "You know what happens with that. It doesn't work out well."

Democrats see a favorable environment in a swingy district, though. Bob Harvie, a former teacher and Bucks County commissioner, is slated to challenge Fitzpatrick in the fall.

Cook Political Report Race Rating: Likely Republican