Nor'easter bringing coastal flooding concerns to New York, New Jersey, Long Island, Connecticut
This weekend's nor'easter is bringing coastal flooding concerns and bands of rain to New York City and the Tri-State Area.
Sunday is a First Alert Weather Day due to the storm.
A High Wind Warning is in place for coastal Monmouth, Ocean, Nassau and Suffolk counties through noon Sunday, and a Wind Advisory is in place for most counties in the region – excluding Sullivan and western Ulster – through noon Sunday.
There is a Coastal Flood Warning for all coastal locations within the Tri-State Area, including Manhattan, through 6 p.m. Sunday, and a High Surf Advisory for all ocean beaches through 8 p.m. Sunday.
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The storm so far
A potent early season nor'easter will continue to impact the entire Tri-State Area throughout the weekend. Nor'easters occurring in September are exceptionally rare, with an occurrence rate of 5%. The storm will be advancing closer towards the region overnight. It is very large, and given that is happening in late September, it has more moisture to work with than typical cool season nor'easters.
Continuous bands of rain have already put down anywhere between a half inch to over 2 inches of rain so far. Winds have gusted as high as 81 mph in Montauk, New York, while lots of other places have recorded gusts between 40-60 mph. Coastal flooding has inundated many locations as well and will continue with each high tide cycle through Sunday. Inundation may reach as high as 3 feet.
As a result of unrelenting strong winds pushing onshore, wave heights may reach as high as 12 feet. This most certainly will lead to extensive beach erosion.
The brunt of the storm
Between 10 p.m. Saturday and 10 a.m. Sunday, the brunt of the storm will be upon us. During this timeframe, all elements of the storm – including heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding – will be at their peak.
Winds could gust as high as 60 mph or higher, especially at the coast. Wind gusts that high could be damaging at any time of the year, but with pretty much every local tree still fully leafed out and green, the effects of the wind will be much worse, as the leaves add extra weight to the trees. Downed trees and powerlines are highly likely, resulting in lots of power outages.
The storm will actually make a landfall along the Jersey Shore in the early hours of Sunday morning. Just as is the case with hurricanes, after this storm landfalls, it will gradually weaken. However, strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding will still be a concern; they'll just diminish slowly through the day on Sunday.
Total rainfall totals will average between 2-4 inches regionwide, with higher totals at the coast and lower totals in northwestern zones.
Because this is a long duration event, flash flooding is not a huge concern, but some inland flooding from heavy rain may occur.
Temperatures through the weekend will vary little, generally hovering in the upper 50s to low 60s. Conditions start to improve later on Monday afternoon.
Breaking it down by region
Jersey Shore: Periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Rainfall totals: 4-5 inches. Wind gusts up to 60 mph or higher. Moderate to severe coastal flooding. 1-3 feet of inundation. High surf will lead to beach erosion.
Lower Hudson Valley, Central and northern New Jersey: Periods heavy rain and strong winds. Rainfall totals: 2-4 inches. Wind gusts up to 50 mph or higher. Moderate to severe coastal flooding. 1-3 feet of inundation.
Long Island: Periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Rainfall totals: 4-5 inches. Wind gusts up to 60 mph or higher. Moderate to severe coastal flooding. 1-3 feet of inundation. High surf will lead to beach erosion.
NYC: Periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Rainfall totals: 2-4 inches. Wind gusts up to 50 mph or higher. Moderate to severe coastal flooding. 1-3 feet of inundation. High surf will lead to beach erosion.
Western Hudson Valley, Northwestern New Jersey and Northern Connecticut: Periods of moderate to heavy rain and strong winds. Rainfall totals: 1-3 inches. Wind gusts up to 40 mph or higher.
Coastal Connecticut: Periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Rainfall totals: 2-4 inches. Wind gusts up to 50 mph or higher. Moderate to severe coastal flooding. 1-3 feet of inundation.
