As Catholic school students across New York City head back to class this week, the excitement for a new school year is being tempered by a troubling trend.

Experts say enrollment is continuing to decline, causing fears more schools will close for good.

Students returning to new schools after mergers

At St. Ephrem Catholic Academy in Brooklyn, classrooms were buzzing again Wednesday with first-day energy, but for some, the year is starting off with big changes.

Seventh grader Jocelyn Guillen was a student at Our Lady of Perpetual Help until it closed over the summer. Now, she's one of dozens of new faces at St. Ephrem, where staff members are working hard to make the students feel at home.

"I'm really looking forward to meeting new people and introducing myself to new staff members," Jocelyn said.

"It's a new beginning, and we brought in about 55 of their families," St. Ephrem Principal Michael Phillips said.

This kind of transition is becoming all too common.

Experts say enrollment across Catholic schools in the Archdiocese of New York has been falling steadily, from around 53,000 in the 2020-21 school year to a little less than 49,500 in 2024-25, which is about a 7% loss.

During that time, dozens of schools in both the Archdiocese and the Diocese of Brooklyn have shut down or survived only by merging.

Experts attribute the declining enrollment to tuition costs.

"Some families need to make some economic decisions, and sometimes the Catholic schools are falling victim," Notre Dame Prep of Sacred Heart University Head of School Chris Cipriano said.

"Because of people's lack of confidence in the church of late, doesn't mean the schools are a problem," said James Wolfinger, dean of St. John's University's School of Education.

Queens Catholic school expanding as part of long-term strategy

But in Queens, Holy Cross High School is investing in an expansion. School President Mark Mongelluzzo says it will draw in more students, especially young women.

"We started to see a decline in enrollment about 10, 15 years ago, so our response to that was to go co-educational," he said.

The school is putting the finishing touches on a new 11,000-square-foot multi-use building that will house dance classes, a 1,200-square-foot flexible performing arts space, robotics labs, athletic training, and several art demonstrations.

"For Catholic schools to survive, you've got to innovate and you've got to motivate," Mongelluzzo said.

It's all part of a long-term strategy to keep students and their futures in mind.

Meanwhile, the Archdiocese of New York said there is a sign of hope: it has seen a significant rise in enrollment among diverse immigrant families and their children.