Who gained more from the conventions: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

Reuters photos of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, by David Becker and Jim Bourg


As the dust settles in the wake of the Republican and Democratic conventions, the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton does not look dramatically different than it did before the big party gatherings: Clinton is guarding a significant but not overwhelming lead in national and swing state polls.

Both Trump and Clinton received a polling "bounce" after their respective nominating conventions, increasing their support in national surveys by several points and reducing the pool of undecided voters. On July 15, the RealClearPolitics polling average pegged Clinton's support at 43.1 percent; today, that number is 46.5 percent - an increase of 3.4 percent. And on July 15, Trump was at 40.4 percent in the RCP average; today, he's at 42.0 percent - a 1.6 percent jump.

What will live on from Clinton's convention speech?

Those averages suggest that Clinton, on balance, is in better shape after the conventions than is Trump. But there's no denying Trump's support increased in the wake of his convention, even if it later ebbed a bit during the Democratic convention. On July 26, the second day of the Democratic convention, Trump's average support stood at 45.6 percent, an increase of 5.2 percent from his pre-convention average. It was only when pollsters began surveying voters after the Democratic convention's sustained attacks on Trump that his support began to fall.

Individual surveys tell a similar story. Before both gatherings, Trump and Clinton stood at 40 percent apiece in a CBS News poll in mid-July. After the GOP convention, both were at 42 percent - a convention "bounce" of two points for Trump. And now, Clinton is at 46 percent and Trump is at 42 percent - so in the wake of the Democratic convention, not only did Clinton add four percent to her support, Trump has lost three percent of his.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll before both conventions found Clinton ahead, 49 to 42 percent. After the GOP convention, the numbers flipped, with Trump ahead, 48 to 45 percent. Now, according to the same poll, Clinton is again in the lead, 52 to 43 percent.

The takeaway: Clinton and Trump both benefitted from their conventions, but Clinton perhaps a bit more so - and any "bounce" Trump secured from his own convention was essentially annulled by the Democratic convention.


Some new swing state polls show the race remains close in some perennial battlegrounds - and Clinton is within striking distance of Trump in some states that should be comfortably in the GOP column.

Trump sees small uptick in polling after RNC

A KTNV/Rasmussen poll out of Nevada released Tuesday found Clinton ahead of Trump, 41 to 40 percent, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson winning 10 percent. In 2012, President Obama defeated GOP nomine Mitt Romney in Nevada, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent.

In Georgia, the race is tied at 45 percent, according to a WSB-TV/Landmark poll released Monday. But Trump is up by four points in Georgia, 46 to 42 percent, according to another poll released Monday by WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA. In 2012, Romney carried Georgia by eight points, 53.4 to 45.4 percent.

And in Missouri, Clinton is narrowly ahead, 41 to 40 percent, according to a St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll released late last week. Nine percent of respondents in the survey voiced support for Johnson, the Libertarian. For comparison's sake, Romney carried Missouri comfortably in 2012, winning 53.9 percent to the Mr. Obama's 44.3 percent.

Despite evidence of an expanding battleground map for Democrats, some corners of the country remain solidly red: A Sooner poll out of Oklahoma this week found Trump ahead of Clinton by 24 points, 53 to 29 percent.