Trump never won Minnesota, but political experts say his grip on state GOP politics keeps growing
Minnesota Republican strategists say President Trump's influence over the state party remains strong heading into this year's primary and general elections, even though he has never won Minnesota in three presidential campaigns.
Trump repeated a false claim about his standing in the state during a June 12 appearance, saying, "I won Minnesota three times easily, I won almost every county, but they didn't give it to me." State voting records do not support that claim. Trump lost Minnesota in 2016, 2020 and 2024.
Despite those losses, support for Trump in Minnesota has grown, and Republican strategists say his sway over the state party has not diminished.
Amy Frederiksen, a Minnesota GOP strategist and former Minnesota Senate majority leader, said Trump has reshaped the Republican Party in the state and cemented a broader political realignment. Comparing Minnesota's presidential election maps from 2008 and 2024 shows a marked shift, with several counties that once favored Democrats moving into Republican territory.
"I think that people are perhaps underestimating Trump's ... let's call it influence, power within the GOP party, which is still as strong as ever," Frederiksen said.
Frederiksen described the intensity of Trump's support at campaign events as unlike anything she has seen in state politics. "I have never seen anyone garner that kind of adulation, and the folks that are there are there for Trump," she said.
Asked whether that enthusiasm still holds, Frederiksen said it is "fading, as anything will."
She was more measured on how much that enthusiasm will translate into Republican wins in November, citing economic headwinds, the conflict with Iran and the toll of high-profile immigration enforcement actions in the state.
"I think it's going to be a little tougher row to hoe for Republicans because of the economy and potentially Iran, and frankly, [immigration enforcement activity] has left a trail in Minnesota," she said.
Primary field runs the gamut
Minnesota's primary is Aug. 11. Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate in either the governor's race or the U.S. Senate race, though he has said Mike Lindell, the MyPillow CEO running for governor, "deserves to be governor." According to current polling, Lindell is the front-runner in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Major statewide GOP candidates in both races have said they would welcome Trump's endorsement.
Trump has endorsed Minnesota's four Republican members of Congress: Reps. Tom Emmer, Brad Finstad, Michelle Fischbach and Pete Stauber.
Trump's endorsements have proven decisive in a number of contested Republican primaries nationally. According to Ballotpedia, an election-focused website that tracks endorsement outcomes, Trump-endorsed candidates have won at a rate of roughly 95%.
This year, Trump's endorsements played a central role in the primary defeats of two incumbent Republican senators: Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, who lost a runoff to Trump-backed Attorney General Ken Paxton in May, and Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who failed to advance out of his state's primary after Trump backed a rival candidate.
Economic headwinds at top of mind for voters
Strategists say the war with Iran and elevated consumer prices are expected to weigh on Republicans in this year's elections, though possibly less than some analysts anticipate. Trump's supporters in Minnesota, where his base remains sizable, have largely accepted his rationale that short-term economic pain is a necessary cost of curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions, strategists say.
Recent polling shows Trump's approval in Minnesota in the high 30s to low 40s, percentage-wise — a level that, while not high, is roughly consistent with his support through much of his term. Strategists note that Trump's supporters, particularly when he actively urges them to the polls, have a strong record of turning out to vote.
