Latest polls show Klobuchar, Flanagan with double-digit leads against opponents in Minnesota midterm races

A New York Times/Siena College poll that puts Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan 14 points ahead of Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race is the biggest surprise before the election, because every other poll has shown a close contest.

Candidates across Minnesota are making their final pitches to voters before the Nov. 3 election. WCCO's Esme Murphy looked at where the key races stand, and where surprises could come, on "Today's Talking Points."

Flanagan, the DFL nominee, and Tafoya, a sportscaster and talk show host, each won their party's nomination in the August primary for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith.

Republican analyst Amy Frederiksen is skeptical of the new poll. She called it "a massive outlier in all the nonpartisan polls that have been taken." She said no nonpartisan poll had shown Flanagan ahead by more than 4 points, which is basically within the margin of error, and she cautioned people to take polls with a grain of salt.

Democrats say the poll could be right. They point to the August DFL primary, when polls showed Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig neck and neck. Flanagan won by 20 points.

"It's one poll, it's a snapshot in time, but I do think it speaks to an enthusiasm gap as well," said Democratic strategist Abou Amara.

Amara said Republicans are less enthused about turning out, which he said is why President Trump is traveling the country to try to energize the Republican base.

In the governor's race, Sen. Amy Klobuchar has held a consistent lead over House Speaker Lisa Demuth. An average of recent polls shows Klobuchar ahead by 11 points. Klobuchar, the Democratic nominee, and Demuth, the Republican nominee, will meet in the Nov. 3 general election, and Klobuchar has led in fundraising since before the primaries.

In the attorney general's race, polls have consistently shown a close contest between DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison and Republican Ron Schutz. Republicans point to the 2022 race, which Ellison won by just 20,000 votes.

Frederiksen said Ellison is used to tight races, and she said fraud adds to the pressure this year, with allegations she believes are being aimed more credibly at the attorney general's office.