Balance of power in Minnesota Legislature on the ballot this election
They may not be the marquee Minnesota races for governor and U.S. Senate, but down-ballot battles for the Legislature will determine which party controls the divided state Capitol.
In the Minnesota House, Republicans and Democrats are hoping to break the 67-67 tie that's defined the last two years. Across the hall in the state Senate, Democrats are hoping to defend and expand their majority while Republicans are pushing to take back the reins for the first time in four years.
Every seat — all 201 of them in both chambers — is on the ballot.
After the 2024 election, a tied House created a divided Legislature that forced Republicans and Democrats to work together these last two years to find compromise in order to pass a budget and a slate of other laws impacting taxes, schools, roads and bridges, public safety, the state's natural resources and more.
Shared power is pretty commonplace in Minnesota: Only twice in the last 25 years has there been a "trifecta" in which Democrats control both chambers and the governor's office.
DFL Sen. Majority Leader Erin Murphy is fighting for her caucus to at least hold onto its narrow majority, but hopes the number of DFL seats grows. She told reporters recently that she believes Democrats have put otherwise Republican-leaning districts in play and that even if the White House is many miles away, policies coming from Washington will shape the outcome of legislative races here.
"There is no doubt that things that have come to Minnesota from Washington, D.C. — increasing costs, tariffs, taxes, plus what we experienced during [Operation] Metro Surge with the killing of Renee Good and Alex Pretti have left an indelible mark," she said.
But even if the conventional wisdom about midterm elections — that they favor the political party opposite the party of the president — and polling suggesting a Blue Wave are true, Republicans believe state-specific issues matter more to voters and give them an advantage.
Sen. Mark Johnson, the GOP minority leader, thinks rampant fraud in state government and the 2023-2024 DFL trifecta will help Republicans overcome national headwinds.
"That really is countered by the mismanagement of government that we've seen in Minnesota by the DFL. This just does not feel like the same Minnesota was four years ago, and that's not for the better," he said in an interview. "And so when you see Minnesota being the laughing stock across the nation, you know there's got to be change in state government, and that's a local issue."
In the House, Republicans and Democrats have shared power in what was only the second tied chamber in modern history.
Under two dozen House districts are truly competitive out of 134 on the ballot in every corner of the state.
Every vote matters in these local contests. Two years ago, a tie-making race in Shakopee, Minnesota, that was subject to recounts and court challenges was decided by just 14 people.
