How National Weather Service staffing shortages are already making weather forecasts worse
There are 122 National Weather Service (NWS) offices nationwide, each of which performs critical lifesaving duties every day from issuing tornado warnings to keeping airplanes out of hazardous weather.
But many NWS offices are now short-staffed, following recent Department of Government Efficiency-ordered staff cuts and voluntary early retirements.
CBS News Chicago found that scaled-back services are already making weather forecasts from your phone to your television less accurate.
"I do think public safety is going to be more in jeopardy," said Dr. Richard Spinrad, who served as the Administrator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the administration of President Barack Obama.
Dr. Spinrad expressed concern that the number of certain employees serving a vital role in local NWS offices, electronics technicians, is down by at least 16%.
"That means the Weather Service's ability to operate, maintain, fix, repair the weather radars is going to be compromised," he said.
Meteorologists at television stations use that radar data to help track and forecast dangerous storms during severe weather season.
"There is a high likelihood that through the season, one or two or more radars will not be fully operable at a time that there's a major spate of tornadoes developing," Dr. Spinrad said.
That is important as severe weather season ramps up in the Upper Midwest, and studies show that tornado alley is shifting eastward into Illinois as the climate changes.
In 2024, the Chicago area experienced an all-time record 63 tornadoes. Most of those came in back-to-back outbreaks on July 14 and 15.
The staffing shortage could also impact summer vacation travel plans, as the NWS also handles critical airline weather forecasts.
"I expect we're going to see a lot more delays and cancellations due to weather, just because we cannot get the information into the hands of the FAA and the commercial airlines as well," said Dr. Spinrad.
CBS News Chicago tried to determine the current extent of staff shortages at weather offices nationwide by calling many offices directly, checking online, and reaching out to the NWS and NOAA.
Local offices referred us to NOAA. NOAA responded via email by writing, "Per long-standing practice, we don't discuss internal personnel and management matters."
Online, however, we found that 43% of those 122 weather service offices actually post staffing information — including positions, names, and vacancies that anyone can see.
Dr. Spinrad says the new round of job cuts only exacerbates an existing serious shortage.
"The Weather Service really needed to hire a lot of people, even well before we saw all of these impacts of somewhere in the neighborhood of about 1,500 people now down," he said.
Those 1,500 empty jobs are about one-third of the entire NWS workforce.
Indicating there are empty seats in NWS offices, NOAA went on to write, "The National Weather Service is adjusting some services at our local forecast offices throughout the country in order to best meet the needs of the public…"
One of those services being adjusted is the usual twice-a-day launch of weather balloons from dozens of offices across the country.
A total of 67 NWS offices launch weather balloons, which serve a critical role in weather forecasting. As balloons ascend through the depths of the atmosphere, they feed data into computers that help meteorologists forecast the weather. These data serve to supplement and improve data from satellites and the ground network of weather observing stations.
The weather balloons launched west of Chicago in the Great Plains provide especially valuable information to the CBS News Chicago First Alert Weather team, as most of our weather comes from that direction. The weather team uses that information, along with the most up-to-date weather technology in Chicago, to be able to accurately inform viewers about the risk of severe weather — including tornadoes.
On the day we checked recently, eight of 67 offices were down to one balloon launch a day — many of those located west of Chicago. Another three had canceled launches altogether.
Not having sufficient weather balloon data is like forecasting our next storm with one eye closed.
"The simple logic is that the reason NOAA uses balloons is because they improve the forecast," said Dr. Spinrad. "So therefore, if you take the balloons out, that forecast is going to be degraded."
Computer modeling expert Dr. Sharan Majumdar from the University of Miami Rosentiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science agrees. He worries about the impact on the 2025 hurricane season, which runs from June through November.
"The National Hurricane Center calls for extra observations to supplement the network when there's a hurricane that's approaching," Majumdar said.
Majumdar said data show without extra balloon launches that provide three-dimensional structures of the atmosphere surrounding a storm, hurricane track forecasts are less accurate.
"The computer models need that, that accuracy of data that the satellites cannot provide," he said.
With more people moving to or vacationing along the country's coastlines, that accuracy matters.
"The number of people that are just in harm's way, it's always important to keep improving our weather forecasts, and the availability of more observations is only going to improve weather forecasts," Dr. Majumdar said.
U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-California), who represents California's 18th Congressional District in the central part of the state near the coastline, is pushing the Trump Administration for answers.
"We have sent six letters … and they refuse to answer them," said Rep. Lofgren. "So not only are they doing irresponsible cuts, but they're hiding what they're doing from the public."
Lofgren said she has been searching for bipartisan consensus.
"And so far, we have not seen Republican members in the majority willing to join with us to press on this," she said. "I think they're afraid of Trump. I would be more afraid of my constituents being harmed because of those cuts to the weather service."
NOAA, again, did not respond to our request for specific staffing information, but did write, "Work is underway to restore services at local forecast offices around the country."
However, it doesn't appear that vacant NWS positions will be filled soon, as the place to apply for an open spot, USAJOBS, shows no job openings for the National Weather Service.
In the meantime, Dr. Spinrad said NWS employees are doing their best with limited numbers.
"Imagine a defense on a college football team playing with only eight players. They're going to get the job done. They're going to work hard," he said. "I don't care how good they are, they can't compete as well. They can't cover every consequence."
CBS News Chicago reached out to the Congressional Committee that oversees NOAA and did not hear back. Rep. Lofgren is the ranking Democratic member of that committee.
We also reached out to GOP Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Illinois) of Illinois' 16th Congressional District, and did not hear back.
