Run Prevention Isn't The Problem

It's the easy thing to say. The Red Sox are struggling? Of course they are, who other than Theo thought this run prevention thing was going to work? The guys they brought in just aren't the answer; everyone knew that before the first pitch was thrown!

Well, if you look at the numbers, the truth is that no one could've seen this coming.

In what may seem as an obvious statement, this team has drastically underperformed. What may not be so obvious is that it's not the new guys. Judging by the past three Aprils, this team should've gotten off to a damn good start. Unfortunately, April was completely unpredictable.

We all know David Ortiz was atrocious. But let's look at some of the other guys, shall we? Many talk about Victor Martinez' struggles behind the plate, and rightly so, but his offense has been just as bad and no one expected or could expect that. From 2007-2009, Martinez was a .350 April hitter. This April, he had to heat up to get above .250. Martinez' OBP and OPS were also drastically below the norm.

Martinez is just an example of a lineup wide issue. Out of 13 positional players, eight underperformed their usual April numbers this April. Included in those eight were Kevin Youkilis and JD Drew. The numbers back it up, but the idea of this blog isn't to put you asleep…You'll have to trust me.

There are three hitters that have hit better than could've been expected, any guesses? Ok, times up. Jacoby Ellsbury (limited sample size), Jason Varitek and Adrian Beltre all did better at the dish than could've been predicted. There are only two, yes TWO, hitters that came close to mirroring their April track record; Dustin Pedroia and Marco Scutaro…Golf clap for those two gentlemen.

If you figured pitching would walk into the room and help out…Um, nope. The pitching staff found it necessary to keep up with the one through nine. Daniel Bard and Scott Atchison don't count due to small sample size. Ramon Ramirez was so bad he couldn't be included with these numbers, because he'd skew them so badly. Out of the other nine pitchers on the staff, two have done better than could be expected (Manny Delcarmen and Clay Buchholz), while Jon Lester has been predictable... predictably mediocre.

Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jonathan Papelbon, Tim Wakefield and Hideki Okajima have all ranged from below average to puke inducing awful. Look at those names one more time. If you predicted that Delcarmen and Buchholz would be the two best pitchers on this staff in April, while Okajima and Beckett failed to hold their own, quickly run to the corner store and play the numbers.

The truth of the Red Sox terrible start is that they haven't gotten production from guys that have consistently produced in the past. These are the Guys that have been wearing Red Sox uniforms for a number of years and that fans have mostly loved and cheered for.

If you want to get on the team for believing in Ortiz or not realizing how bad VMart's defense was, then so be it. But, before spewing the Theo stinks garbage and the tired "run prevention" line, ask yourself if you could've predicted fourteen out of twenty-two players to statistically do worse than what logically could've been projected. It's doubtful anyone did.