Red Sox' playoff hopes looking grim entering AL East homestand at Fenway Park
BOSTON -- The Red Sox have not been officially eliminated from the playoff race. This coming week may unofficially end those hopes.
As the Sox get set to host the Blue Jays for three games at Fenway before a three-game set vs. the Rays, they sit six games out of the third and final wild card spot in the American League. That spot is currently occupied by the Seattle Mariners, who are in a virtual tie with the Blue Jays. In between Boston and that wild card duo are the Baltimore Orioles, the Minnesota Twins, and the Chicago White Sox. The O's are 2.5 games out, the Twins three games out, and the White Sox four games out.
In theory, the Red Sox could go 4-2 or 5-1 this week to gain some ground in that crowded race. But reality may prove to be not so simple.
The Red Sox have played the Blue Jays 13 times already this season, tied for the most games against any opponent thus far. And in those games, the Red Sox are a miserable 3-10. Included in that 3-10 record is a 1-5 mark at home, including the infamous series at Fenway after the All-Star break. The Red Sox entered that series with some positive vibes, with several paths to the playoffs mapped out after a four-day hiatus. That hope was crushed early, as the Blue Jays pounded the Red Sox with that 28-5 blowout at Fenway Park, lowlighted by Jarren Duran losing a routine fly ball in the lights and refusing to even try to retrieve the ball, leading to an embarrassing inside-the-park grand slam.
Boston lost 4-1 the next day (with Alex Manoah belittling numerous Red Sox players along the way) before losing the series finale, 8-4.
In the 13 games between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, Toronto has outscored Boston 82-42. Even eliminating the massive outlier of the 28-5 games, the Blue Jays own a 54-37 run differential in the other 12 contests.
The Red Sox have played fewer games vs. the Rays, but the results have been worse. In 10 games against Tampa, the Red Sox have gone 2-8. Only three of those games have taken place at Fenway, with the Rays winning the final two games of a series that began on the Fourth of July. Overall, the Rays have outscored the Red Sox 48-29 in their 10 meetings.
Of course, it's baseball, and anything can happen. Past results aren't guarantees of future outcomes. Yet with the trio of Josh Winckowski/Rich Hill/Kutter Crawford starting vs. the Blue Jays, and with the Red Sox losing three of their last four games after generating just their second three-game winning streak since June, it's hard to feel too great about Boston's chances to jump-start a late-season run to the postseason.
According to Baseball Reference, the Red Sox have a 3.3 percent chance of making the postseason. That number has been halved in the past week, and it's dropped 14 percent over the past 30 days. Barring an unforeseen surge, next six days could well be the virtual death knell.
