Reality Now Rules
All good things must come to an end and that is the story with our February thaw. After two very balmy days with near record high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, colder air was introduced via an eruption of nasty thunderstorms last evening. The thunder seemed unusually loud due to leafless trees, a dense compact snowpack and the more powerful positive lightning. Additionally, while mainly a summer phenomenon, hail the size of peas and nickels fell in several communities along with strong, gusty winds. It has been a crazy week featuring a beautiful Valentine's Day in the 50s followed by an arctic sting in the middle 20s on Tuesday climaxed by spring fever the last couple days. It appears that the ongoing La Nina will continue to trigger more wild gyrations in the next several weeks. It's the battle of warming in the Southern States versus arctic air intrusions from Canada. This will lead to an active stormy pattern.
Temperatures steadily declined through the 40s into the upper 30s during the predawn hours and will hold nearly constant toward midday. After that, it is more likely that a drop of a few more degrees will materialize during this afternoon as intervals of bright sunshine occur between patches of passing clouds. Flurries and snow showers will be most prevalent over the hills and mountains of western and northern New England but a few over the coastal plain cannot be ruled out. A WIND ADVISORY has been hoisted by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Taunton. Expect changing wind speeds from 15-35 mph with a few fierce sudden gusts to 50 mph through the day and evening. This will add a noticeable chill to the air especially after the recent spring preview. One more upper air disturbance will pass through this evening then the sky will be clear the rest of the night and filled with sunshine most of tomorrow until wispy cloudiness appears later in the afternoon. After lows in the teens tonight, temperatures will max out near 32 tomorrow afternoon when there will be much less wind. An approaching wave of low pressure will release a swath of snow across the region starting after midnight tomorrow night and ending from west to east Monday afternoon. Presently, the available parameters should result in 2-3 inches across northern New England with 3 up to 5 inches over most of southern New England. As the wave exits, it will drag down another chunk of frigid air from Quebec as a sprawling high pressure system closes in from Ontario. There will be a brisk cold wind on Tuesday with late afternoon highs in the range of 26-31 despite ample sunshine.
Looking ahead, as the ridge of high pressure shifts across the region then moves offshore, a southerly wind will produce a warming trend the second half of the upcoming week. The next weather maker will be an intensifying storm in the Midwest which shows signals of being an inside runner and tracking well west of the Boston area. If this verifies, the temperatures will shoot into the lower 40s on Thursday then rise to near 50 on Friday when a ribbon of rain rambles through. Another possible option reveals a more southern route to this storm which would create a more wintery scenario for Friday into Saturday. At this time, I am selecting the solution of the European model. Clearly, it is too premature to be highly confident of the outcome at this time.
For the skiers and boarders, after the warm spell softening, the cold air has hardened the trails but the groomers, thankfully, have been and will be busy to loosen the surfaces for improving conditions. Be alert for patches of hard-pack and icy spots especially on the steeps and in areas of higher traffic after midday. Snow showers will be frequent over many of the northern resorts and favorable upslope locations will catch a few inches of snow into tonight. With the return of cold air into the teens with strong winds, bundle up in several layers with no bulky heavy coats please. Use helmets and googles, neck gaiters and warmer mittens. Take a few runs for me and be safe and courteous on the trails and that applies to you snowmobilers as well!
I'll be covering the morning shifts as well as the evening shifts through tomorrow as Joe Joyce spends time with his family. Congratulations to Joe and his wife on the birth of their son last Tuesday. Baby Michael joins his two older brothers and sister and everyone is doing just fine.
Enjoy the long holiday weekend... and, for many of you, the February school vacation week too.
