El Niño a major factor in NOAA's winter outlook. Maps show how it could affect Massachusetts.
NOAA's National Weather Service announced its winter outlook for the United States Thursday and there were no big surprises for Massachusetts. El Niño is ruling the roost.
As we inch toward the winter season, we have a record-setting, very strong El Niño in place across the Pacific Ocean.
This is the strongest El Niño ever recorded, beating out some very big El Niño events in the last several decades.
Currently, the weather phenomenon is overriding all other atmospheric factors and will be the biggest player in this winter's forecast across the entire country.
NOAA expects warmer-than-average conditions across the entire northern tier of the U.S., a very typical look for a strong El Niño.
The greatest confidence in milder-than-average temperatures resides in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest and in New England.
NOAA is forecasting greater chances for above-average precipitation across the southern tier of the country as well as the entire East Coast, including most of New England.
Again, this is a very typical look for an El Niño winter.
The big question, of course, is will that precipitation fall as rain or snow?
While there may be several big East Coast storms this winter, the likelihood is for much of it to fall as rain due to milder temperatures.
Looking back at the last several winters with strong or super El Niños, you can see that all of them had below-average snowfall in Boston (the city averages close to 49 inches of snow).
Of course, it only takes one or two "big ones" to bolster seasonal snowfall numbers.
As for ski country, that is a tougher call. There could be several storms with a variety of precipitation types this winter. So, while it may be raining in southern New England, there could be an icy mix or snow happening in central or northern New England.
The bottom line for ski lovers - don't lose hope.
The WBZ-TV Weather team will have our own winter forecast for the Boston area coming up next month.
