Let's all get lost in the NFL playoff simulators to see Patriots' potential path to playoffs

BOSTON -- Had the Patriots just not blown a late lead and then not handed the game to the Raiders last weekend, then this would all be a bit clearer.

But as Bill Belichick once said at the podium, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, then every day would be Christmas.

What happened happened, and that embarrassing loss to the Raiders might end up sinking the Patriots' playoff hopes.

For some, a playoff-less season may seem like the best-case scenario for this rough season. Better draft positioning wouldn't hurt, and flailing down the stretch would force Belichick's hand to reorganize his staff in a way that makes his team actually competitive going forward.

But for others, there's always value in being a playoff team. So if the Patriots can reach the postseason despite the faceplant vs. the Bears, despite the painful fourth quarter vs. the Vikings, and despite the utter collapse in Las Vegas, then there will be one positive for the Patriots to take from this season as they head into 2023.

So for anyone who has a vested interest in that scenario, let's fiddle around with the NFL playoff odd machines from Five Thirty Eight and The New York Times to see what can happen over these final three weeks.

For one, the Patriots don't need to beat the Bengals this week. So even if they lose on Saturday and ruin Christmas for everyone, they can still make the playoffs by beating the Dolphins the following week and then winning in Buffalo in Week 18.

If they lose to the Bengals but beat the Dolphins and Bills, they'll need:

--The Jets to lose one of their next two games (vs. Jacksonville on Thursday night, or at Seattle in Week 17)
--The Jets to beat the Dolphins in Week 18

That would give the Patriots a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Five Thirty Eight and a 95 percent chance according to the New York Times.

The Jets going 2-1 and beating the Dolphins isn't altogether improbable. They did beat the Dolphins 40-17 in Miami, though that was the game from which backup QB Teddy Bridgewater was removed. The now-injured Breece Hall also had 197 yards from scrimmage that day. So a rematch will be very different. Still, it's possible.

The Patriots could also get into the playoffs if the Chargers lose some games. That's unlikely, though, because this is the Chargers' remaining schedule:

at Indianapolis (4-9-1)
vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-10)
at Denver Broncos (4-10)

The Chargers might blow one of those games. If they somehow lose two of them, and if the Patriots lose to the Bengals but win their final two games, then the Patriots will be at 96 percent to make the playoffs on Five Thirty Eight and 97 percent at the New York Times.

That scenario, though, feels like a pipe dream. The Chargers aren't great. But they're not going to lose to the Colts (who just set an NFL record by blowing a 33-point lead), or the Rams (who just lost two offensive starters to injury, including one on their porous O-line), or most likely the Broncos (who can't score football points in their football games). So that one's not worth investing in.

Now, it's of course possible that the Patriots could beat the Bengals this week. It is a short week, it's Christmas, and some teams still struggle when they show up to Gillette Stadium, even if most of that intimidating aura has evaporated in recent years. Stranger things have certainly happened.

And if the Patriots beat the Bengals, then their season will really depend on their game vs. the Dolphins the next week on New Year's Day.

If the Patriots win this week and then beat the Dolphins in Week 17, they'll have a 61 percent (Five Thirty Eight) or 67 percent (NYT) chance of making the playoffs. But if they beat the Bengals only to lose to the Dolphins the following week, those odds plummet to 5 percent (Five Thirty Eight) and 7 percent (NYT). Clearly, a whole lot hinges on that Dolphins game.

Even though only three weeks remain in the season, there's a lot that needs to shake out to determine the AFC playoff field.

In the more immediate future, there's this:

If the Patriots beat the Bengals on Saturday, then their playoff chances are at 38 percent (Five Thirty Eight) or 42 percent (NYT).

If the Patriots lose to the Bengals on Saturday, then their playoff chances are at 8 percent (Five Thirty Eight) or 14 percent (NYT). From there, they'd only go up to 15 percent (Five Thirty Eight) or 22 percent (NYT) by beating the Dolphins in Week 17.

So there's a lot at stake this weekend. The Patriots could still make the playoffs after a loss to the Bengals, but it will require:

--Beating the Bills in Buffalo in Week 18
--The Jets beating the Dolphins in Week 18
--The Jets losing to either the Jaguars or Seahawks
--The Raiders losing at least once

Whether it comes to all of that, well, we will find out on Saturday afternoon.