The Beat Goes On

Yesterday, I was in a deep funk because I sensed that a snafu was in the works. I even sent out a tweet that said, "almost every storm has a puzzle and almost every storm has a surprise." After briefly feeling more relieved early yesterday that the output from the evening models revealed a reduction in their qpf predictions from previous days, I soon became perplexed by the ribbon of precipitation associated with the first piece of the evolving storm. The models already did not have a good handle on that ribbon of moisture. Consequently, it was unclear how that would interfere with the bigger picture of the main upper air low pressure system exiting the Tennessee Valley. That feature was progressing due east with a projected turn to the east-northeast. There was a mad nasty bundle of energy associated with this system. A similar setup existed earlier this season which resulted in the precipitation package of that blossoming storm staying offshore and the region never got much of anything. Fortunately, I downplayed the potential on that one and it worked. As you and I know now, it didn't work for me this time! The problem is that no two storms have exactly the same characteristics and the same potential. Each one is going to behave in its own way because the atmosphere is fluid and changes are a given. You can spend hours and hours microanalyzing a storm but Mother Nature has the last call. Blowing a forecast is like flunking a test. It makes me nauseous. The atmosphere is amazingly complex and meteorology remains an inexact science for all forecasters. In this case, the northwestern flank of the intensifying ocean storm zapped us bigtime. The challenging facet of this event was determining the placement and magnitude of the mid-level lift. It turned out to be excessive and it pivoted farther northwestward than I had projected and that was a huge mistake. The snowfall was intense and insane in eastern MA from 1AM to 5AM. I was driving to WBZ between 1:45 and 2:45am and I can tell you that it was a snow blitz. There were blizzard conditions but the duration didn't satisfy the strict definition of 3 continuous consecutive hours in most locations. With my game face on, I felt relatively comfortable in downplaying this event over the past few days projecting almost all totals under 8" but that certainly blew up in my face. So with egg on my face, I apologize for my blunder and I congratulate all of the Boston tv mets and those of you here in our "Beyond The Forecast" blog who accurately predicted this nor'easter.

In review, this beast produced 15 up to 20 inches of snow in the Philadelphia to NYC area. Then the mid-level lift shifted northeastward and pivoted deeper into southern New England. The result produced 10 up to 18 inches  from central and eastern Connecticut into southern and eastern Worcester County into northern Rhode Island. Middlesex County ended up with 9 to 13 inches with Essex County in the 8 to 12 inch range. In Bristol County and Plymouth County, it ranged from near a foot in the northern section to near 6 inches on the southern end. Amounts lowered from near 6 inches at the Canal down to 3 to 5 inches over most of the rest of Cape Cod with not much at all on Nantucket. The amounts were also lowered under 6 inches from far northwestern Worcester County westward across the northern Connecticut River Valley into the northern Berkshires. Across extreme southern NH, amounts of 6-9" were common with a quick dropoff from 6" northward. Officially for Boston, 9.9" was the final total at Logan Airport. This puts the seasonal total at 60.3" which is already 18.1" above the entire seasonal average. This storm raises the monthly total to 38.3" making it the 3rd snowiest January on record. The snowiest January was in 2005 at 43.3" and the seasonal total that year was 86.6". Last year's seasonal total was only 35.7".

Looking ahead, the storm track is set up over the Canadian Rockies to the Great Lakes into the Northeast, This track separates a reservoir of frigid air over Canada to milder air across the southern United States. Over the next several days, only weak systems will be transiting this track. As a result, there could only be a few spotty flurries tomorrow followed by a slightly more energetic system to crank out a bit of light snow or widespread flurries on Saturday when a few areas could get up to an inch or so. Timing brings the next one into the area on Tuesday. Daytime high temperatures over the next several days will range from the lower 30s through Saturday to the upper 20s Sunday into Tuesday. With the return of sunshine this morning and the rapidly improving road conditions, it almost seems like the overnight blitz never happened!

For the skiers, boarders and snowmobilers, there is obviously plenty of snow to enjoy your sport this weekend. Conditions should be fabulous with powder and packed powder. The northern resorts received a meager amount of snow or none at all from this recent storm but conditions are decent with most groomed nicely. Some of the glades in these areas may not be open because of the lack of deep snow. There would only be a few flurries or a bit of light snow in those areas this coming weekend. Fortunately, albeit cold with highs in the teens and 20s, it will not be super frigid like it was up there last weekend. Be courteous and safe on the trails and please take a few runs for me!

Have a great weekend one and all.