Severe Weather, Flooding... Then Winter

Since Winter started we've enjoyed highs that are 15-20 degrees above normal:

Don't expect to see 6 days-in-a-row of 70's again until next Spring. Winter arrives tomorrow and it sticks around this time. The transition from this unusually warm weather to winter weather will be rather traumatic. Warm again today but the winds will pick up as the risk of strong storms cranks up:

There is an good chance we'll see some severe weather this afternoon and evening as a cold front comes bearing down on us from the northwest. Most of north Texas is under an "ENHANCED RISK" of severe weather. The main threat will be damaging winds and flooding but isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening:

It'll be another VERY warm day with temperatures getting into the upper 70's. It will also be VERY windy. Storms that develop well ahead of the cold front today will be isolated but possibly severe:

The severe weather risk increases as a squall line develops just ahead of the front and sweeps through north Texas. The tornado risk will be higher to the north and northwest of the Metroplex by late today and early evening. The line will likely produce damaging winds:

Once the front passes through the threat will transition over to a high flooding risk. We are under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Monday morning:

The heaviest rain arrives tonight and continues overnight into the first half of the day tomorrow. Some areas northeast of the metro could get up to 5" - 6" of rain! The Metro area could easily get 2"-3". Be very careful on the roads tomorrow morning, especially before sunrise (7:29am):

Temperatures will drop into the 40's by afternoon with a powerful north wind making it feel much colder than that. Winter coats will be needed. The heavy rain will move off to our east by late afternoon:

The rain/snow line will move into the our western counties by the end of the day. Snow will increase in intensity Sunday night and continue into Monday morning. We could get 2"-3" of snow from Montague down to Eastland county. There will be strong north winds while it is snowing so visibility could be an issue as well as the roads become slippery. A WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect for this area until Monday morning:

By Monday morning the roads in the Metro area should be just fine as well as the roads east and south of the metro. We'll likely see spits of snow and sleet overnight into Monday morning but the ground will still be warm and amounts will be light. The precipitation will quickly come to a close by later in the morning.

Then winter cold will set in and stick around this time. We'll be cold all the way to the New Year and the week past:

We've have gone to 24-hour staffing here in the CBS11 Weather Center and will likely issue a Weather Alert Day this afternoon. Jeff Jamison will keep you updated starting at Noon, he'll bring you a full forecast tonight at 6p and again at 10pm with hourly cut-ins.  I'll be back in during the overnight to provide hourly updates and bring you the latest forecast at 7am on CBS11.

Follow us on Twitter: @CBS11jeffrey & @CBS11JeffJam and on Facebook @ CBS11 Weather.

-Jeff Ray