Severe Storms Possible Today & Tomorrow

MONDAY:  STORM TEAM 11 ON STORM WATCH

On this Monday, all of North Texas is under a slight risk for severe storms for the afternoon and late evening hours.  We will have two opportunities for severe storms with one being for eastern parts of North Texas during the afternoon and the other for western parts of North Texas along the dry line this evening.  The Metroplex and the bulk of North Texas will be sandwiched in between with windy and warm conditions into the evening hours.

Storms:  Eastern North Texas

Where:  along and east of a line from Paris to Sulphur Springs to Canton to Fairfield.  When:  noon through 6 PM.  What:  storms will produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  While most will remain below severe limits, a few will become severe with damaging wind and lightning being the number one and two concerns.  Hail will not be as big an issue, but we'll list it as a distant number three concern.  Tornado threat minimal.

Storms:  Western North Texas

Where:  along and east of a line from Wichita Falls to Breckenridge to Eastland to just west of the I-35 corridor with the best chance mainly north of the I-20 corridor.  When:  5 PM through 1 AM.  What:  first discrete super cells capable of large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and lightning well west.  Second, cells will likely form a line or large cluster that will track eastward toward Metroplex by late evening.  While initially the hail threat is significant, it will lessen as storms move east.  The tornado threat will also ease as storms move eastward.  The wind damage and lightning concerns will remain high with the storms to the I-35 corridor.

TUESDAY:  STORM TEAM 11 ON STORM WATCH

We are under a slight risk for severe storms again Tuesday as a cold front and upper level low wind up and slowly churn through North Texas.  We will have showers and storms throughout the day from the morning commute through the evening rush hour.  For the morning commute into the midday hours, expect scattered showers with a few non-severe storms.  The instability in the atmosphere will likely remain in-check by cloud cover for much of the day.  However, with clouds breaking apart in the afternoon and the approaching cold front/upper low combo, strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the front.

Morning Commute

Scattered showers with a few thundershowers and mild conditions.  Briefly gusty winds and lightning are possible, but nothing severe.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but not likely.

Midday Hours

Scattered activity continues across North Texas as the low and cold front increase in strength.  Storms will become stronger, but most will likely stay just below severe limits in terms of wind damage.  Hail concerns will not be big until afternoon heating and cold front approaches Metroplex.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Afternoon Into Evening:  3 PM – 9 PM

Scattered storms strengthening into strong and severe storms.  Winds will have a better chance to reach severe limits and the same for hail.  Lightning will continue to be an ongoing threat and heavy rainfall will become enhanced.  Flash flooding could become a concern with the slow moving upper low.  Part of North Texas may be under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Flash Flood Watch.