Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico: Why the Texas Senate race matters and what's at stake

The race for Texas' U.S. Senate seat between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is drawing national attention as both parties fight for control of the chamber. The outcome could also test whether Democrats can make gains in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades.

"It would be symbolically powerful if Democrats were able to break through and win a statewide office in Texas," said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.

Wilson said a Democratic victory would challenge assumptions about the state's political landscape and could open new opportunities for the party in future elections.

He said the stakes also make the race strategically important for Republicans seeking to maintain their stronghold in Texas and power on Capitol Hill.

Could Democrats turn Texas blue?

Several factors are contributing to what Wilson described as a favorable environment for Democrats.

Wilson said the president's party typically faces challenges during the second midterm election of a presidency. He added that President Donald Trump's low approval ratings, conflicts overseas, and economic concerns, including high inflation, are among the factors shaping the 2026 midterms.

"The other issue is that Ken Paxton brings considerable baggage to the table," Wilson said.

Wilson said Paxton's personal and ethical controversies may make some voters uncomfortable, potentially giving Democrats an opportunity they might not otherwise have.

But Wilson cautioned against viewing the race as a referendum on the candidates alone.

"The national climate is really the only reason this race is close," Wilson said.

In a more neutral electoral environment, Wilson said, Paxton would likely have an advantage of several percentage points. Instead, Republicans across the country are facing political headwinds that could make the Texas race more competitive.

The last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Democrat Robert Krueger briefly held the seat by appointment in 1993 before Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison won a special election.

Wilson sees the 2026 race as Democrats' best opportunity in decades to break that streak.

A record-breaking amount of political ad spending

The stakes are reflected in the unprecedented amount of money being spent to influence the race.

According to AdImpact, combined advertising spending across the primaries, Republican runoff and general election has topped $500 million—a record that could continue to rise before Election Day.

The previous record was set during the 2024 election between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, which saw more than $210 million in advertising spending, according to AdImpact.

The 2026 matchup follows a contentious Republican primary and runoff, in which Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn to secure the GOP nomination. Cornyn was first elected to the Senate in 2002.

"The race is hotly contested," Wilson said. "It had competitive primaries on both sides. And Texas is an expensive place to do politics because we've got multiple major media markets."

Those markets include Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and El Paso.

"You put all that together, and it's not surprising that this is likely to turn out as the most expensive race ever," Wilson said. "And I think we're on track to see that happen."

The spending is also fueling a battle over how voters perceive each candidate.

Talarico has sought to portray Paxton as corrupt and unethical, while Paxton has framed Talarico as a radical liberal.

"These are the dueling narratives here," Wilson said. "Both of them are saying more about what's wrong with their opponent than offering a kind of positive vision. Sadly, that's more or less par for the course in contemporary American politics."

What issues matter most to Texas voters?

But while campaigns spend millions defining their opponents, voters are weighing issues that affect their everyday lives.

Lower prices, taxes, job security, and the cost of housing, education and health care consistently rank among the most important concerns for voters, Wilson said.

Topics like immigration, crime and cultural issues also play a role. Republicans, for example, are trying to make transgender-related issues part of their appeal to voters, he said.

However, affordability remains a key concern.

"Pretty consistently, voters say their top concern in this electoral cycle centers around issues of economic conditions and affordability," Wilson said.

Voting groups to watch

Affordability could be particularly important among Hispanic voters, whom Wilson identified as one of the key groups to watch as Election Day approaches.

"Hispanic voters in particular are economically focused voters," Wilson said. "They say the cost of living, economic opportunity issues are first and foremost."

Hispanic voters have shifted toward Republicans in recent election cycles, but Wilson said economic concerns could sway some voters back toward Democrats.

Wilson said he will also be watching whether traditional Republicans who have reservations about Paxton ultimately support him at the ballot box. Some may consider crossing party lines but ultimately stick with their party's nominee.

"That's what Paxton is counting on, is some of those Republicans who aren't crazy about him to still come home because they can't bring themselves to vote for Talarico," Wilson said.

What Texas voters should know before Election Day

Wilson said it's important for voters to remember the broader context of this race.

"This is not just a contest between two guys," he said. "This is a key part of the battle for overall control of the United States Senate."

While it is a local election, the outcome could have consequences well beyond Texas, affecting the balance of power in Washington, D.C.

Wilson also encouraged voters to participate in the midterm election even if neither candidate perfectly aligns with their preferences.

"Democracy gives them the chance to weigh in, and I would encourage them to exercise that franchise," Wilson said.

With polls showing a close contest, Wilson expects this race to be competitive until the end.

"Most of the polling shows it within a margin of error," he said. "It'll be a close and interesting race to watch down the stretch."

Watch the full conversation with SMU political science professor Matthew Wilson for more analysis of the 2026 Texas Senate race.

Early voting continues through Friday, Oct. 30 . Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

To check your registration, view ballot information and find your polling place, visit VoteTexas.gov.

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