Easter Morning Rain, Stormy Week Ahead

A wonderful Saturday ended with clouds coming in from the southwest. Rain/storms started to move into Brown, Erath and Somervell Counties by end of day. This is the system that makes the Easter Day forecast look like this:

Most of rain that is moving in will fall in the first half of the day. Expect some embedded thunderstorms but we are not expecting any severe weather. Here is the forecast modeling showing the rain chances tapering off as the day goes on:

Storms are in the forecast for every day next week:

A huge upper-level low will move over California. This moves the Jetstream into a southwest flow overhead. With a strong south wind at the surface to provide the moist air the chance of storms will be in place most of the week:

All this situation needs is some surface mechanism to lift this warm air into the unstable air overhead. The dryline parked to your west will do the job. The only question is if the cap (a warm layer of air above the surface that keeps the clouds from rising higher) can hold each afternoon. If it breaks powerful storms could develop. So there won't be many of them (if any) but they could do damage:

The worst of it looks to arrive on Thursday as the upper-level low moves into the Central Rockies and sends a cold front into Texas. This will likely produce a widespread outbreak of strong to severe storms:

The unsettled weather stays in our forecast going into next weekend as the front stalls to our south and then rides back into north Texas to produce storms and showers: