Analyzing Pittsburgh's 2025 mayoral primary
It's the hottest contested Pittsburgh mayoral race in recent memory. More money has been spent on Tuesday's Democratic primary than any before.
What does Mayor Ed Gainey need to do to retain his office? Conversely, what does Corey O'Connor need to unseat him?
Four years ago, Ed Gainey ran as a progressive outsider, becoming the first Black mayor in city history, promising to make Pittsburgh a city for all.
Now, he is the incumbent and must run on whether he's delivered on that promise, though much of his focus has been on Donald Trump and drumming up his progressive base.
"He's still running as an outsider. Someone who's challenging the system or the status quo. But now he's been in office, and can he pull that off?" questioned political consultant Mike Butler.
In the 2021 primary, Gainey bested the incumbent Bill Peduto with historic turnout in the Black neighborhoods of Homewood, Lincoln-Lemington, and the Hill District, as well as strong support from younger, white progressive voters in neighborhoods like Lawrenceville, Highland Park, Bloomfield, and Garfield.
To win on Tuesday, Butler says Gainey will need to increase that turnout.
"Doing all he can to get the progressive base up as much as he can. He really needs to win with that core constituency," Butler said.
On the other side, Corey O'Connor needs to win those who voted for Peduto, who tend to be older, white, and dissatisfied with Gainey's performance in office on issues like crime and delivery of city services.
Peduto commandingly claimed voters south of the rivers in neighborhoods like Brookline, Beechview, and the West End. O'Connor is expected to do the same, but also benefits from former police officer Tony Moreno's decision to run in the Republican primary. Last time, Moreno got the most votes in Lincoln Place and Hays, and Butler says those votes should fall to O'Connor.
"Corey will be very strong south of the river. If Mayor Gainey is going to pull this off, he's going to need to outperform there. I don't know if that's possible," Butler said.
And while Peduto won the 14th ward of Squirrel Hill, Point Breeze, and Greenfield, Gainey did come close last time. But O'Connor, who grew up there, represented the district as a councilman and has deep family ties, is hoping for a larger margin to seal the election.
"That's the biggest voting bloc in the city. If Corey wins there, there might not be a path for Mayor Gainey." Butler said.
Still, don't count out the mayor and the progressive machine — which elected him, Congresswoman Summer Lee twice, and County Executive Sara Innamorato.
"If Mayor Gainey wins, it's because he has a better ground game on Election Day. The progressives know more where their voters are and they do a better job in turning them out," Butler said.
