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What the Phillies need to do to clinch their first playoff berth since 2011

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PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- With 10 games to play, the Phillies' magic number to clinching their first playoff berth in 11 years is eight. That doesn't mean they need to win eight games to end the second-longest postseason drought in baseball, but that would do.

The Phils will clinch a playoff berth with any combination of wins and Milwaukee Brewers losses that equate to eight.

So, if the Phillies win Tuesday and the Brewers lose, the magic number falls to six. If both teams win, the magic number goes down to seven. If both teams lose, it also drops to seven. If the Phils lose and Brewers win, it stays at eight. So on and so forth.  

Philadelphia opens up a season-ending 10-game road trip Tuesday in Chicago, while the Brewers end their regular-season schedule with a nine-game homestand beginning with a two-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Phillies face the Cubs, Washington Nationals and Houston Astros. Milwaukee faces the Cardinals, Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks.

As of Tuesday, the Phillies hold a 1½-game lead over the Brewers for the National League's third wild card spot. Because the Phillies own the tiebreaker, however, it's essentially a 2½-game lead.

If the Phillies finish the season 5-5, Milwaukee would have to go 7-2 to jump them.

We're looking at Friday as being the earliest the Phillies could clinch a playoff berth. That's if the Phils sweep the Cubs and win their series opener with the Nationals and the Brewers lose both games with St. Louis and their first two games with Miami.

The Phils are still in play to win the second wild-card spot in the NL. They're 1½ games behind San Diego and also own the tiebreaker over the Padres. San Diego finishes the season with nine home games.

FanGraphs projects the Phillies to have an 86.4% chance of making the postseason.

Baseball-Reference has the Phillies' odds at 80.9%.

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