In special House elections during Trump era, fortune rarely favors opposing party
Early on during Donald Trump's first term as president, Republicans were at risk of losing a reliably red congressional seat in Kansas.
His decision to nominate Mike Pompeo as CIA director led to the need for a special election to fill the former congressman's seat representing Wichita and a sprawling portion of the state along the Oklahoma border.
Months earlier, Pompeo had comfortably won the district by 31 points. But by the time polls closed in the April 2017 special election for the seat, Republican candidate Ron Estes narrowly avoided an upset, going on to win the seat by around six points.
That harried 2017 race underscored a familiar dynamic in American politics: the importance of special elections for House seats in a bitterly divided Washington and the long-shot opportunity of an opposing party to flip a district in what can be a low turnout affair. It's one that has taken on particular resonance amid the harsh partisan division that has gripped Washington.
According to Federal Election Commission records from 2017 to the end of 2024, control of a House seat flipped less than 15% of the time in a special election during that timespan. Those odds spotlight the stark challenge Democrats are facing on Tuesday in the special election for two reliably red seats in Florida that were held by Republicans Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz.
After winning his seat by 32 points in the 2024 general election, Gaetz left Congress during his abandoned attempt to become Trump's attorney general. Waltz won his seat by 33 points last fall before resigning to become national security adviser.
In the race to replace Waltz, Democratic candidate Josh Weil has vastly outraised Republican state Sen. Randy Fine, leading to surprising anxiety on the right for a seat that was expected to easily remain in GOP hands. In recent days, Trump himself has attempted to boost Fine while campaign finance records show the Elon Musk-founded AMERICA PAC has dedicated close to $77,000 to support the state senator in a relatively small but notable foray into the contest.
Even in the seven special House elections since 2017 where control of a district changed hands, unique dynamics were sometimes at play. When Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola won the seat that had been held by Republican Don Young in August 2022, she faced two Republican challengers in a contest decided through the state's brand of ranked choice voting.
And when California Republican Mike Garcia and New York Democrat Tom Suozzi won their special contests, they were running to replace politicians who had faced scandal.
There remains a certain level of unpredictability with special House elections, and despite the attention they receive, they can become more of a snapshot in time rather than a true sign of what will happen in the next general election.
After his narrow 2017 special election victory in Kansas, Estes faced the same Democratic challenger in the 2018 midterms.
Estes won by more than 18 points and remains in Congress.
