Super El Nino could fuel warmer-than-average fall in Minnesota, climatologists say

Between Minnesota's third longest heatwave on record and the first 100-degree day in four years, it's safe to say this summer has been a scorcher. 

If you're hoping for a big cooldown come fall, the odds aren't in your favor.   

"Recently, we've had a lot of really warm autumn conditions. I think three of the last four Septembers and Octobers have broken a lot of temperature records in Minnesota. And so I think that's a piece of it," said Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, it is looking more likely temperatures stay above average for the season which starts in September and ends in November on the meteorological calendar. The outlook is also calling for near-average precipitation, which Blumenfeld said would be a step in the right direction given the ongoing drought.

"We've gotten these large deficits underway and it'll take a long time to undo them," he said. "Although anything close to normal would definitely alleviate some of the immediate conditions that we're seeing."

Another part of the forecast equation — the fact we are continuing into what experts are calling a Super El Nino where ocean waters in the Pacific are well above average. 

El Ninos tend to intensify in late fall and typically mean less snow and warmer weather, but Blumenfeld said that's not always a guarantee.

"There's always variability and you never know exactly what's gonna happen," he said. "And if we do get early cold spells before the kind of mature El Nino really kicks in, maybe we'll get cold enough to get some good ice on the lakes. Maybe we'll have major snowstorms prior to the onset of the main winter pattern that we expect."

Blumenfeld said the Halloween blizzard of '91 was also during a Super El Nino year, so there's still a chance come late fall if you're hoping for snow.