Is prediction market betting dead on arrival for Minnesota lawmakers?
The annual debate over legalizing sports betting in Minnesota is back at the state Capitol, with lawmakers pointing to a new federal shift on prediction markets as a potential game-changer.
Sports betting is legal in 40 states, but Minnesota is not among them. Efforts to pass a law have failed in the last few years.
DFL Sen. Nick Frenz, who authored the Senate bill, said President Trump's decision to allow prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to operate in all 50 states could change the dynamics of the debate. Prediction markets let participants buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events ranging from elections to sports, and from a consumer standpoint, the experience is similar to placing a bet.
On Polymarket, users can place bets on questions such as who will be the next president of Denmark, how high crude oil prices will go, or NCAA basketball tournament outcomes.
"We're hoping people will take into account the fact that in the last year, the federal government's made some rulings that essentially allow prediction markets to they claim make sports betting legal in Minnesota," Frenz said. "That's a matter of some litigation around the country, but if we accept that sports betting is now being allowed in Minnesota, I think many people feel the better path is to regulate it."
Frenz's bill would split proceeds between Native American tribes, horse tracks, problem gambling organizations and youth sports-related grants.
The proposal has sparked debate within the Legislature. Another DFL Sen. John Marty has introduced a bill that would make prediction markets illegal.
"Under predictive markets, people could be betting on if this bill will pass, and I can give somebody a tip that, 'Here's what's going on.' And, 'Hey, we can tank this bill,' or something else. People could make it a corrupt system," said Marty.
The issue faces opposition from both sides of the aisle, but also bipartisan support. Frenz put the odds of his bill passing at 50-50 even. Others say the chances are lower.
Nationally, a bill was introduced this week in the U.S. Senate that would make prediction markets illegal across the country. The bill is sponsored by Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff of California and Sen. John Curtis of Utah, a conservative.
