Do gas prices actually affect election outcomes?

A major talking point for the upcoming election is once again staring drivers in the face: gas prices.

AAA reports the average price for a gallon of gas in Minnesota on Monday is $4.03. That's up 17 cents from a week ago and nearly 40 cents from a month ago, when prices were dropping.

WCCO talked with three voters outside a local gas station, asking whether gas prices influence how they vote.

"No, it does not," said Derek Moore.

"Not directly," said Zoya Humphrey.

"I would not say that that's a determining factor in how I vote," added Marc Humphrey.

Three people is a small sample size, but notably, all three said gas prices aren't top of mind when they vote.

Yet the issue remains a major talking point ahead of the midterm elections. Do gas prices actually impact elections?

"The short answer is yes, they do," said Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "There are two ways of getting at this. One is to ask people whether gas prices have any impact on their own votes. About two-thirds say yes."

The Center Square Voters Voice Poll, released in June, surveyed more than 2,500 people. 

Results showed 66% said gas prices are likely to influence their vote.

When broken down by party, 81% of Democrats said the price at the pump will be on their mind in November. A slight majority of Independents (56%) and Republicans (53%) said the same.

Zoya wasn't surprised, saying gas prices will likely influence voters' habits.

"I know for a lot of voters in the 2024 election, that was a big thing. Like, 'Oh, gas prices are gonna be cheaper, grocery prices,' and that's obviously not the case," she said.

Another way to determine whether gas prices affect elections is to look at historical data.

"When political scientists have studied this question, the answer is clear. It does affect voting behavior," Galston said.

Gas prices influence voting behavior by leading voters to downgrade their assessment of the president's job performance, he said.

Since the president isn't on the ballot in midterm elections, members of the president's party in Congress often pay the political price.

According to a Politico report, the incumbent party has lost an average of 21 House seats in midterm elections dating back to 1978. During election cycles when gas prices rise, that average loss jumps to 32 seats. While there are likely other factors influencing those results, Galston said gas prices represent a unique economic indicator because people encounter them so frequently.

"Those repeated experiences of prices that are higher than they used to be and higher than you think they should be, that will most affect, and affect most quickly, a voter's sense of inflation and who's responsible for it," he said.

Political party aside, Galston said people with lower incomes, those living paycheck to paycheck and people who regularly drive long distances are most likely to base their votes on gas prices.

"I was spending $200, $300 a week on gas," Marc Humphrey said while describing the cost of taking his son to baseball practices 30 miles from home. "A lot of the kids on our team, their parents were struggling to keep up with those prices and get them where they needed to be."

According to Brookings, drivers who live in congressional districts represented by Republicans tend to put more miles on their vehicles than those living in districts represented by Democrats — about 26% more miles per capita, according to the Center Square report.

Back in May, a Marist poll found 81% of Americans felt either major or minor strain from gas prices. Most respondents, 63%, blamed President Donald Trump for the prices.

In the Center Square poll, 49% of respondents blamed "wars or conflicts affecting global oil markets" for the increase, the highest percentage of any response.