How some key Texas primary runoff races are shaping up
TEXAS (CBSDFW.COM) - Election Day is Tuesday and there are a number of key races in the Republican and Democratic primary runoffs.
One of the most contentious battles is being fought in the Republican runoff for Texas Attorney General.
Ken Paxton, the two-term incumbent, had a big lead over George P. Bush, the current Texas Land Commissioner, 65% to 23% in the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll last month, and a much smaller lead, 41-35% in the Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler poll last week.
Paxton has called Bush too liberal, and the Attorney General won the endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
Bush has pointed to a reported FBI investigation into Paxton on bribery allegations and the fact that the Attorney General awaits trial on unrelated state fraud charges.
Paxton has denied any wrongdoing in both cases.
SMU Political Science Professor Matthew Wilson said, "I think Paxton is definitely still the favorite."
"If you're still supporting Paxton, at this point, it largely means that you don't think there's anything substantive there in terms of corruption or wrongdoing. That is either you think that that it's much ado about nothing, or you've decided to forgive him and move on. That is either you think that that it's much ado about nothing, or you've decided to forgive him and move on."
Former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and Congressman Louie Gohmert highlighted Paxton's legal troubles in their primary campaigns but didn't endorse either candidate in the runoff, which may hurt Bush in his attempt to attract their supporters.
"He's saying, 'look, the same corruption on the part of Ken Paxton, that may well have induced you to support Guzman in the first round, ought to now lead you to turn to me as an alternative.' That case, however, would be enhanced and more powerful if he actually had the endorsement."
In the Democratic runoff, former ACLU Staff Attorney Rochelle Garza has led former Galveston Mayor and attorney Joe Jaworski in the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll 46% to 31% and the Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler poll 35% to 20%.
But in the latter poll, 40% said they still don't know who they will vote for.
Wilson said, "I think it is her race to lose. The fact that she finished first in the first round, and that her lead in polls has been double digits, suggest that, you know, absent some last-minute revelation, which I don't imagine what that would be, that she would be expected to carry the Democratic banner into the fall."
In the Democratic runoff for the 30th Congressional District between Jasmine Crockett and Jane Hope Hamilton, there are no independent polls.
Crockett, a state Representative of Dallas, has the backing of the retiring long-time Congresswoman, Eddie Bernice Johnson.
Hamilton has received endorsements from State Senator Royce West, Congressman Marc Veasey, and Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price.
"She finished well ahead in the initial round of voting; she doesn't have that much further to go to get to that 50% threshold. So she certainly is the dominant candidate in this race. It is an interesting test of the relative influence of Eddie Bernice Johnson, versus most of the rest of the black political establishment in Dallas, because outside of Congresswoman Johnson herself, the other powers that be have largely coalesced behind Jane Hamilton."
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