Severe thunderstorms on the horizon Thursday in Southeast Michigan. Here's what to expect.
Southeast Michigan is bracing for a dramatic shift in weather on Thursday, as a strong cold front collides with unseasonably warm air, bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms to the region.
Thursday will begin with a rapid warming trend. A strong surge of southerly winds will draw significant moisture and warm air into the Great Lakes, pushing afternoon high temperatures into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees for much of Metro Detroit.
This unstable environment will serve as the fuel for developing thunderstorms as a powerful cold front sweeps across the state later in the day.
While a few scattered showers are possible on Thursday midday, the primary window of concern for severe weather will open in the late afternoon and persist through the evening.
Our expectation is for the storm risk to focus between 4 and 10 pm.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, primarily south of the M-59 corridor, but in particular south of Interstate 96.
With strong wind shear and atmospheric instability in place, all modes of severe weather are possible Thursday evening. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for hail production. Any stronger thunderstorms that develop could produce localized hail up to 2 inches in diameter.
Strong wind remains a primary threat. Strong wind fields aloft combined with the advancing cold front could produce isolated wind gusts exceeding 60 mph.
While the overall threat is localized, sufficiently low-level wind shear means that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in the southern tier of counties nearest the Michigan-Ohio border.
Once the cold front passes, Southeast Michigan will experience a jarring temperature swing.
Temperatures will plummet Thursday night, leaving Friday feeling sharply colder with highs struggling in the low 40s.
Lingering wrap-around moisture could even result in a few light snow showers early Friday morning.
