Hurley's Picks: The NFL is better than March Madness
BOSTON -- Some people just love March Madness. They go gaga for it. Can't get enough of it. They take vacation days from work months in advance, they book tables at their favorite establishments, they fill out their beloved brackets, and they sit back and hope to witness some beautiful chaos.
With all due respect to those people ... have they considered just watching an opening weekend in the NFL? Good gravy, it can get bananas.
Now granted, it wasn't exactly Creighton-UAB in the round of 64, nor was it at the level of a 40-minute Drake or Oral Roberts basketball contest. But Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season was as insane a sporting weekend as anyone could ever ask for.
The Thursday night season opener wasn't a great game, aside from the stunning show of the defending champs getting waxed on their home turf by a Buffalo team that seemed intent on sending a warning shot across the bow of the entire NFL. But on Sunday at 1 p.m., all hell broke loose.
The Bears rallied in the midst of a 10-year rainstorm to beat the Niners. It produced one of the best sports visuals imaginable.
(If the Bears actually move to a dome, football should just be canceled forever.)
The Steelers ragdolled Joe Burrow and knocked off the defending AFC champions at the very end of overtime, but only after the Steelers blocked a Bengals PAT attempt at the end of regulation and after Evan McPherson inexplicably missed a 29-yard chip shot in OT and after Chris Boswell thumped one off the upright in OT. That one just might stand as the game of the year.
The Colts and Texans tied, which was better than it sounds. The Saints furiously charged back from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Falcons. The Panthers took their first lead of the game over the Browns with 77 seconds left in the fourth quarter ... only for rookie kicker Cade York to boot a 58-yard field goal to win the game in Carolina. (That kick would've been good from 70, too.) The Lions -- the Detroit freaking Lions -- roared back to cut a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit down to three points, forcing the Eagles to run a QB sneak at the Lions' 40-yard line in order for the NFC East favorites to escape with a win. Even the Jaguars and Commanders gave the football world a wild entry in the Week 1 fray, with a couple of fourth-quarter lead changes and an interception of Trevor Lawrence to end the game.
Of the nine games at 1 p.m., only Pats-Dolphins and Ravens-Jets failed to bring the heat. That's a solid ratio.
Things cooled down in the late window, but only a little. The Vikings stifled Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense, while the Chargers fended off the Raiders in what promises to be one of the best battles for a division crown in NFL history. And then out of nowhere, the Giants shook off an atrocious first half and a 13-0 deficit to come all the way back in Tennessee against the Titans, with Brian Daboll boldly going for two with 69 seconds left to play to give his team the lead. Randy Bullock had the chance to make none of that matter, but he missed his 47-yard would-be game-winner, giving the Giants their first Week 1 win since 2016.
Si, señor, indeed.
To be fair, the Sunday night game -- featuring Tom Brady in Dallas -- was a complete dud. But Monday night more than made up for it, as Russell Wilson's return to Seattle, featuring the pleasant soundtrack of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman making their debut on ESPN, was an absolute show. From the pregame, through Geno Smith's shockingly good first half, through Denver's goal line fumbles, right up until Nathaniel Hackett authored one of the worst coaching moments in NFL history ... that thing was a spectacle.
Peyton Manning pantomiming timeouts on live TV, Brady lobbing bombs to Julio Jones, kickers missing chippies, overtimes going down to the wire, Rodgers yelling at his fellow Packers, Patrick Mahomes casually throwing five touchdowns without breaking a sweat, Justin Jefferson running wild, Justin Fields on the slip and slide -- what more could you want?
Again, perhaps you love to see Akron take on Arkansas, or Seton Hall vs. Iowa State in the Midwest bracket. Maybe every March, you like to check in on the teenagers of Marquette and St. Mary's on the hardwood. And hey, to each his own. Maybe it works out in a game or two in each of the first two weekends. I'll personally take that sweet, sweet Week 1 chaos every single time.
Of course, all of the upsets and anarchy led to a ... challenging opening week of picks. But that's a small price to pay for the entertainment delivered all week long. Now let's try to get back on track.
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
KANSAS CITY (-4) over Los Angeles
After saying all of that about how great Week 1, it's worth shaking a finger or two at Mr. Mahomes and the Chiefs. That game in Arizona stunk. The Chiefs just might make it in this world.
CLEVELAND (-6) over New York Jets
I might like the Jets here if Robert Saleh hadn't made that comment about keeping receipts. There are certain positions where you're able to talk about receipts. Head coach of the Jets isn't one of them. You can't take the job at an organization that's been the laughingstock of the NFL for the past dozen years. They haven't made the playoffs since 2010. They've finished with a .500 record or worse in 10 of the last 11 seasons. They're now 6-28 since the start of the 2020 season.
Keep your receipts, Robert. But you're going to need a bigger boat.
Tampa Bay (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS
Just as a warning, I can already feel this is going to be one of those years where I go like 3-14 picking Tom Brady's games. I'M TOO CLOSE TO THE SUBJECT!
That being said ... isn't Brady due to actually not play terribly against the Saints? Nobody -- nooooobody -- holds Tom Brady down forever. And even though Brady is 0-4 vs. the Saints in the regular season since joining the Bucs, throwing six touchdowns and eight interceptions while also having arguably the worst game of his career at home in 2020 ... maybe this is finally the time.
Probably not, though. Fade me on Brady until further notice. You're welcome for the honesty.
Carolina (+2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants proved last week that even if they have one of the worst first halves in football history, they can still win a game. And Giants fans actually have something to feel good about when they show up at the stadium on Sunday. How about that?
If I'm being frank here, though, I don't like either team. I'll give the slight edge to Carolina because of how bad Daniel Jones is. (It's wild that Jones had a 115.9 passer rating but a 25.8 QBR last week. Stats!)
New England (-2) over PITTSBURGH
I'm feeling a little crazy with this one but for one reason or another, I see the Patriots pulling this one out. It's not because "THE PATRIOTS AREN'T GOING TO LOSE TWO IN A ROW" or anything like that. All of those confident statements about things that could never happen to a Bill Belichick-coached team have been used up over the past two years, when the Patriots proved they can do a lot of things that we never thought possible.
I just think there's an element of the Steelers perhaps being overly impressed with their performance against the reigning AFC champs -- rightfully so, to a degree, as that was rather spectacular. And there's just enough veteran leadership and pride in New England to harass Mitch Trubisky and stun the home team.
I think.
Feels like a bad pick but some picks have to be bad in order to be good. If you know, you know.
JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Indianapolis
The Matt Ryan As Savior storyline has taken a hit.
BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Miami
Washington (+2) over DETROIT
I fear the Lions may have used up their best work, and it came in a loss. That's tough.
Meanwhile, now that the Dolphins got their universe-mandated win at home over the Patriots ... I can go back to worrying about Mike McDaniel's ability as an NFL coach. Did you see his "speech" in the celebratory locker room? Concerning.
SAN FRANCISCO (-9) over Seattle
It's possible that the Niners have a real problem with Trey Lance. Sure. But we can't use last week's nightmare in a deluge to gauge that.
It's more possible that the Geno Smith-Pete Carroll-feel-good-Seahawks expended all of their energy in an emotional Monday night win over Denver, thanks to the foolishness of Nathaniel Hackett. You can tell by the rather large spread that nobody's buying the Seahawks' Week 1 win as meaningful.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-10.5) over Atlanta
Speaking of Geno Smith, it's funny how much everyone loved his postgame interview, in which he said, "They wrote me off. I ain't write back, though. That's the problem -- I ain't write back." Meanwhile Arthur Smith (head coach of the Falcons, in case you somehow forgot), said, "You guys wrote our obituary back in May. You'll continue to write our obituary. Who cares? ... Write whatever y'all want. Same guys that ranked us 45th. You buried us in May, bury us again. We don't care. We'll get back to work." And the reaction to Mr. Smith has been ... crickets. Because nobody really cares about the Falcons enough to write their obituary.
DENVER (-10) over Houston
Betting against my heart here, because it would be really, really funny if the Broncos came home after last week's debacle and lost to the Texans. I mean, exceptionally funny.
Alas. The Texans punted on fourth-and-3 at midfield with 26 seconds left in overtime. They are, sadly, losers. Big time losers.
(Why is Houston playing for a tie? Does Lovie Smith think they'll be in the playoff mix? In the AF-freaking-C? I know you have to be a little delusional to survive in that league, but goodness gracious. Try to win, man. There's literally nothing to lose.)
LAS VEGAS (-5.5) over Arizona
The Cardinals will, presumably, win a football game again. Right? RIGHT?!
Yet ... the last time we've seen them -- once in a nationally televised playoff game, last week in the national 4:25 p.m. window -- they've been outscored 78-32. Bloodbaths, the both of 'em.
Kind of a hard time to pick the ol' Arizona Cardinals.
Cincinnati (-7.5) over DALLAS
I'm not a Cowboys fan. But I'm also not a Cowboys hater. (I also don't hate Duke basketball. Maybe I was just born without that gene?) So I don't know how a neutral observer can see the Dak Prescott injury without being at least a little bummed. You certainly want the Cowboys to be at or near full strength before they collapse in the worst possible moment in disastrous fashion. (See, I never said anything about my personal leanings regarding Mike McCarthy, you see.)
GREEN BAY (-10) over Chicago
Can you imagine? CAN YOU? The Bears going into Lambeau, on Sunday Night Football, improving to 2-0 while saddling Aaron "I Own You" Rodgers with an 0-2 record? The spectacle!
Not going to happen, mind you. Philosophically, we're throwing everything from last week's rain-soaked Bears win in the garbage. Unfortunate, really.
BUFFALO (-10) over Tennessee
A doubleheader Monday night in Week 2? We used to be a society, people.
Anyway. The Bills were the most frightening team of Week 1. Maybe tied with the Chiefs. But Buffalo will be entering on a cool 10-plus days of rest. Their fans will be, as always, insane. Tough spot for the 0-1 Titans.
Minnesota (+2.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Something tells me we'll be watching more of this one than the other one. The games overlap, people! Roger Goodell, FIX THIS.
But until someone proves that Justin Jefferson can be covered, I have no choice but to assume that he cannot, in fact, be covered.
Good luck out there, everybody.
Last week: 6-10 (ouch!)
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
