Patriots technically in control of playoff destiny, but road ahead still a steep climb
BOSTON -- The Patriots didn't have to do anything to gain some ground in the AFC playoff race over the weekend.
The Jets lost to the Bills and dropped out of the final wild card spot in the conference. The Chargers did win, thus jumping into that final playoff spot. But the Patriots can pass the Jets and the Chargers in the standings if they're able to beat the Cardinals on Monday night.
A win on Monday would put the Patriots at 7-6 on the season -- the same record as the Chargers and Jets. But the Patriots would own the tiebreaker against the Jets (2-0 in head-to-head) and the tiebreaker over the Chargers (6-3 conference record, vs. 5-4 conference record).
It logically follows, then, that if the Patriots can leapfrog the Jets and Chargers to move into the third wild card spot on Monday night, then the Patriots are currently in complete control of their playoff destiny. So if the team manages to go 5-0 in the final five weeks of the season, it'll be a second straight trip to the playoffs for New England.
The reality, though, is that it obviously won't be that easy.
While the Patriots should beat the Cardinals on Monday night, they also should have beaten the Bears on a Monday night in October. Instead, the Patriots didn't even really compete.
The Patriots should also beat the Raiders on Sunday of next weekend, but the Raiders will also have the advantage of extra rest, having played last Thursday, while the Patriots will be on a short week spent living on the road.
After that, on the day of Christmas Eve, the Patriots host the Bengals, who are on a five-game winning streak and have gone 9-2 since their hiccup of a start to the season. That game will be no picnic.
In Week 17, the Patriots will host the Dolphins, which promises to be a fascinating game. The Dolphins lost to the Chargers on Sunday night, their second straight loss. The Dolphins are now at 8-5, and they travel to Buffalo next week to play on Saturday night in Orchard Park -- and that's after playing back-to-back games on the West Coast.
If the Dolphins can't beat the Bills in Buffalo, they'll be 8-6. If the Patriots beat the Cardinals and Raiders, they'll be 8-6.
The Dolphins do have a more favorable matchup in Week 16, hosting the Green Bay Packers. So Miami may have a one-game advantage over New England heading into that Week 17 clash at Gillette Stadium. And though the Dolphins have the head-to-head tiebreaker at the moment, the Patriots can even that head-to-head series with a win in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would move to division record, and then common game record. It's too early to play out all of those tiebreakers, but they surely could come into play heading into that game on New Year's Day.
Then in Week 18, the Patriots will make their trek to Buffalo. The Bills are currently in the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they have no breathing room, as their 10-3 record is the same as Kansas City's. The Patriots' best bet to win in Buffalo will involve either a well-timed blizzard that could neutralize Josh Allen's passing game for a second straight year, or the playoff seeding being set for Buffalo one way or another. That, too, is a bit far off to play out, but if the Bills have nothing to lose or gain in Week 18, the needle could point toward the Patriots winning that game while Buffalo rested players and prepared for what should be a long postseason run.
It should be noted that of the four teams fighting for two wild card spots, the Chargers have by far the easiest remaining schedule. The Patriots have the hardest.
Chargers' remaining schedule
vs. Tennessee (7-6)
at Indianapolis (4-8-1)
vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-9)
at Denver (3-10)
Combined opponents' winning percentage: .346Jets' remaining schedule
vs. Detroit (6-7)
vs. Jacksonville (5-8)
at Seattle (7-6)
at Miami (8-5)
Combined opponents' winning percentage: .500Dolphins' remaining schedule
at Buffalo (10-3)
vs. Green Bay (5-8)
@ New England (6-6)
vs. New York Jets (7-6)
Combined opponents' winning percentage: .549Patriots' remaining schedule
at Arizona (4-8)
at Las Vegas (5-8)
vs. Cincinnati (9-4)
vs. Miami (8-5)
at Buffalo (10-3)
Combined opponents' winning percentage: .563(If we assume the Patriots beat the Cardinals, thus leaving them with the same number of remaining opponents as the other three teams, then the more accurate picture of the opponents' combined winning percentage for the Patriots is .615.)
Obviously, none of that matters if the Patriots don't take care of their own business. That begins on Monday night, the first game of this stretch run where the Patriots don't need to depend on anyone else to help them punch a ticket to the playoffs.
