Nor'easter to take unusual track. Here's what that means for the Boston weather forecast.
Boston is already starting to feel some impacts from the impending nor'easter as the weather forecast calls for a long-duration wind and rain event this weekend.
The WBZ Weather Team is highlighting both Saturday and Sunday as NEXT Weather Alert days for a variety of potential impacts in Massachusetts, from wind, to flooding to erosion.
There are some key forecast updates from overnight on the track and timing of the nor'easter.
Nor'easter track
We now feel confident that the nor'easter will take a very unusual path, making a hard left just south of Long Island and making landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey, on Sunday.
This is actually somewhat good news for southern New England as this path is the lesser of two evils. We will avoid a worst-case scenario had the track been a more classic nor'easter path.
The winds will peak Friday night through the daylight hours of Saturday.
Coastal flood watches have been elevated to warnings along the entire east coast of Massachusetts.
It is worth stressing that the most impactful weather this weekend will be along the immediate coastline. For the majority of those living away from the coast, say west of I-95, this will not be a memorable storm but more of an annoyance.
The heaviest rain, strongest winds and greatest risk of power outages are all expected to be within a few miles of the coast and over far southeastern Massachusetts.
What time is the nor'easter going to hit?
This is going to be a long and drawn-out affair with the more than 72 hours between the first and last drop of rain.
Friday: We expect some showers to arrive over southeastern Mass. during the late afternoon and into the evening. They may move as far north as about Boston after dark, but we do not expect this initial rainfall to be very heavy.
Most of the rain on Friday night will be located south of the Mass Pike and in particular, over the Cape and Islands. Farther to the north, there will be a lot of dry air in place, so any rain would be very light and spotty.
Saturday: The rain will gradually increase in intensity and coverage during the day on Saturday. It will generally get heavier later in the day with pockets of downpours and isolated areas of localized flooding.
There will be waves or bands of heavy rain pinwheeling northward from the storm throughout Saturday night.
Sunday: The rain will become somewhat lighter and spottier on Sunday. There will be off-and-on showers all day long with a few heavier, embedded downpours.
Monday: The storm only slowly starts to pull away, leaving us with mainly light, spotty showers. Western areas will likely begin to dry out late in the day.
It may take until sometime on Tuesday before most of eastern Mass. dries out and sees some sunshine.
How much rain?
We expect most of the area to receive between 1 and 3 inches of rain from the nor'easter. Highest amounts will be closer to the coast and over southeastern Mass.
Lower amounts are expected west of I-95 and well inland.
There could be some isolated rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches. Again, the best chance of this would be in far eastern areas.
Given the recent drought status, the area can certainly soak up a few inches of water. The trouble comes if we get heavy amounts in a short period of time. So, we will watch for some localized street flooding but do not expect any major river flooding.
Strong wind gusts from the nor'easter
The National Weather Service has issued a high wind warning for coastal areas and a wind advisory for inland areas lasting through 2 a.m. Sunday.
We expect northeast wind gusts to peak between 50-65 mph over Cape Ann, Cape Cod and the Islands this weekend.
For the rest of the coast, we are forecasting 40-55 mph gusts.
West of I-95, less impactful winds in the neighborhood of 30-40 mph at worst.
The winds will be at their peak Friday night through Saturday night and then slowly will taper and shift direction during Sunday and beyond.
There is a decent chance of some scattered power outages where the winds will be strongest (again, immediate coastline, Cape, Islands).
This would likely coincide with the timing of peak winds late Friday through late Saturday.
Coastal flood warning
The National Weather Service has issued a coastal flood warning from Friday night through Sunday night for several high tide cycles.
We expect widespread minor flooding at the coast with pockets of moderate. There will be 1-2 feet of water inundation and several road closures right at the shoreline.
High tides on Friday and Saturday occur just before midnight. We are most concerned with those two tide cycles because that is when the strongest onshore winds will be.
Tides will continue to climb astronomically on Sunday and early next week. However, the winds will be changing direction and also decreasing by then.
Wave heights at local beaches could reach as high as 8-12 feet with swells just offshore between 10-20 feet.
Again, the wave action will also peak from late Friday through Saturday.
As always, we urge that you stay tuned to frequent forecast updates from the entire WBZ-TV NEXT Weather team. We've got you covered.
