Hurley's Picks: Jim Irsay is guiding the Colts into chaos

BOSTON -- In professional sports, the coach can always be fired. The GM can always be fired. The players can't be fired, per se, but they can be traded or released.

But of course, the owner can't really get himself fired. And in Indianapolis, that is a most unfortunate reality.

After Jim Irsay's Monday night performance (which came after Irsay's baffling Monday afternoon decision-making), it's genuinely difficult to believe he should be in charge of running a professional football team. From nonsensical statements, to unwarranted chest-thumping, to dubious math equations, Irsay was all over the place while announcing that Jeff Saturday -- the former Colts center with no college or professional coaching experience whatsoever -- will be the interim head coach in Indianapolis for the remainder of the season.

Irsay, naturally, disagrees with such an assessment.

"No, the game is not different. We don't build rockets to go to Mars, we're not nuclear scientists. That is none of our jobs here. It's a very simple jobs that we do here," Irsay stated.

He added: "I don't know how to make sausage. I don't know what goes into sausage. But I do know how to build a football team. Cause I've been around for 52 years."

Irsay called upon the Colts being the fourth-winningest team in the NFL since 2000 -- or, "in the top quartile of that upper quartile" as Irsay put it -- as hard evidence that he knows what he's doing.

Irsay conveniently left out the minor detail that the Colts were 88-135 in the 14 seasons that followed his elevation to GM/vice president in 1984. They made three playoff appearances, going 2-3 in those playoff games.

The team then drafted Peyton Manning -- hey, good choice there -- and promptly went 141-67 over the next 13 seasons. They made the playoffs 11 times, going 9-10 in those playoff games.

Yet after losing Manning to injury and then pushing him out the door in order to usher in the Andrew Luck era, the Colts have gone 95-90-1. They have made the playoffs five times, but they're 4-5 in those postseason games.

All together, that's a 150-77 record during the era with the most prolific passer the game has ever seen. Without Manning, the Colts are 189-233-1.

I also don't know how sausage is made, but it feels like having an all-time great quarterback is a rather significant ingredient.

Likewise, running an operation where there's been a different Week 1 starting QB every year for four straight years would seem to be a chaotic way to try to make a sausage, send rockets to Mars, or build a football team.

Anyways.

Confidence can't exactly be soaring in the greater Indianapolis area regarding the outlook for their franchise. Those hearts and minds can be soothed by this tremendous revelation from Irsay:

"If [Saturday] turns us down, we're not here today."

So true. So very true.

(But he's not tanking, OK? Don't even speculate that Irsay is tanking. For one, it's not like they've ever done that before. But secondly ... just don't do it! Irsay doesn't like it. And he knows things.)

Now, to the Week 10 picks.

(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)

Atlanta (-3) over CAROLINA
I'm going to level with you here, folks. The fine people of Hurley's Picks, Incorporated took a beating last week. That's an inevitability in the dangerous game of making NFL picks, but that hardly makes it more bearable to endure.

And in that week from hell, I may or may not have picked the Panthers +7 over the Bengals. I might have done that. And the Panthers might have lost by 600 points. As such, I'm a bit scarred, and I'm unlikely to take the Panthers for the rest of the year. Typically, overcorrecting for one bad pick can lead to trouble down the line, but in this case, probably not. The Panthers are that bad -- even with their black helmets on a Thursday night.

Tampa Bay (-3) over Seattle (in Germany)
They're playing in Germany. That's ... cool for Germans. And the NFL, which can now squeeze some more money out of an untapped market. Very cool. Happy for the NFL. Roger and the fellas pulling themselves up by the bootstraps to raise some funds. Love it.

As for the game, listen. The Seahawks are outperforming all expectations, and they'll probably keep it up to some extent through the final two months. But they're not going to win every game. I still don't believe the Bucs have gotten everything together, but they showed in their final minute last week that they can respond well to being desperate. 

Plus, Tom Brady is 3-0 in international games in his career, with 10 touchdowns, two interceptions, and an average of 317 yards per game. Perhaps he sees the international games as opportunities to grow his brand. Whatever the reason, who doesn't love a good random/mostly arbitrary reason to make a pick?

Jacksonville (+9.5) over KANSAS CITY
The Jaguars are obviously bad, but they sure do love losing close games. All six of their losses have been one-score games.

Throw in the Chiefs looking utterly bored in their overtime slog of a win over the Titans on Sunday night, and I kind of love this one.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-5) over Houston
The Giants are BACK. Thank goodness. They're 6-2 against the spread. And this week's line indicates that not enough people have caught on.

PITTSBURGH (+2.5) over New Orleans
I get that the Saints are a bit up-and-down, losing 42-34 in Week 7, winning 24-0 in Week 8, losing 27-13 at home in Week 9. And the Steelers are not really good at anything. But the day I take Andy Dalton as a road favorite is a dark day in Hades.

CHICAGO (-3) over Detroit
Just a few short weeks ago, this game was looking awful. Now it's just looking regular bad. Quite the improvement.

Cleveland (+3.5) over MIAMI
I like the Dolphins. But there's some hesitation, with the Dolphins being 1-5 against the spread over the past six weeks. Not cool. The Browns are also coming off the bye and theoretically should have a few wrinkles in store for the Dolphins. And the Browns are 1-2 on the road, with each of those road losses coming by just three points.

So as much as the gut says Miami, occasionally the intense, deep, unparalleled research guides me elsewhere.

Minnesota (+4) over BUFFALO
We're all unsure about Josh Allen's status and effectiveness. But also: The Vikings are kind of good at football? A little bit, yeah?

TENNESSEE (-3) over Denver
Maybe the Broncos figured it out on their bye week. But counterpart to that: Maybe they didn't.

LAS VEGAS (-6) over Indianapolis
Everyone is kind of tip-toeing around the Josh McDaniels situation, but if the Raiders lose to JEFF SATURDAY AND THE MISERABLE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, or even if the Raiders don't win big against JEFF SATURDAY AND THE MISERABLE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, then I'm not sure the Raiders can stand to keep their coach anymore.

So the challenge facing McDaniels this week is pretty simple. Be better than Jeff Saturday. Shouldn't be too difficult.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-1.5) over Arizona
It's The 2022 Disappointment Bowl. Even Vegas didn't want to get involved with the stock 3-point line for the home team. The inclination was to stay far away.

But then Matthew Stafford entered concussion protocol. So, honestly, who knows? If he plays, pick the Rams. If he doesn't, pick the Cardinals. But Kyler Murray is also working through a hamstring injury? The same message should shine through: Stay far away. This one's trouble.

Dallas (-5) over GREEN BAY
I'm a bit nervous about picking Green Bay to lose a sixth straight game, solely because it's actually difficult to lose six straight games. But the Cowboys coming off a bye week? Yikes. If the Packers haven't already packed it in for the season, this week could be the death blow.

(I'm choosing to ignore the Mike McCarthy returning to Green Bay angle. Doesn't strike me as a guy who's creative enough to have that really impact his week-to-week game-planning.)

Los Angeles Chargers (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO
Both teams confuse me. The points make sense.

Washington (+11) over PHILADELPHIA
Full disclosure: I am writing these picks before the D.C. attorney general makes a public statement about the team on Thursday. So maybe things change. But for now? The Commanders are 3-2 in their last five weeks, with those two losses coming by four points and three points. I'm not exactly ever comfortable taking the Washington Football Team, but 11? Eleven's a lot. And the Eagles showed last week that they're no sure thing with the big spreads in prime time.

Last week: 4-7-2 (oof!!)
Season: 64-67-5

You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.