Hurley's Picks: Bengals reminding us that sometimes, Super Bowl losers are losers
BOSTON -- They won the AFC last year!
Logically, last year's run to the Super Bowl served as a tangible reason to believe in the Cincinnati Bengals. Sure, they're the Bengals and all. But they made some critical upgrades on the offensive line, they drafted a highly regarded defensive back in the first round, and they had a lot of positive momentum to build on. And that's all while having a young quarterback that seemingly everyone in football loves. Surely, last year's AFC champs would be even better this year.
Alas, at the midway point of the 2022 season, the Bengals are ... worse than they were a year ago. Through eight games last year, the Bengals were 5-3. This year, they're 4-4, and they're coming off an utterly embarrassing showing on Monday Night Football in Cleveland. The Browns had lost four straight games -- at home to the Chargers and Patriots, on the road at Atlanta and Baltimore -- and appeared to be circling the drain with little hope that the season might be saved in December by Deshaun Watson. Yet the Browns outright thumped the Bengals, winning by a final score of 32-13 -- and it wasn't even that close.
As a head coach, Zac Taylor is now 20-36-1, making last year's postseason run look like an aberration.
It's a reminder that not so long ago, we almost expected this from our Super Bowl losers.
From 2001-05, the Super Bowl loser failed to reach the playoffs every single year. All five of them had losing records. The '06 Seahawks broke that trend with a 9-7 season and a playoff win in the Wild Card round, but the '07 Bears and '08 Patriots brought back the run of Super Bowl losers failing to make the playoffs. (The '08 Patriots were a bit of an anomaly for several reasons, as they went 11-5 with Matt Cassel but still missed the playoffs. Alas. They didn't make the playoffs, which is the point.)
But then things got strange.
For seven straight seasons and for nine of the next 10 years, the Super Bowl loser made the postseason. From 2009-18, the 2016 Panthers were the only team to fail to reach the postseason a year after losing the Super Bowl. Even the Seahawks made the playoffs (and won a game, thanks to Blair Walsh) a year after the Malcolm Butler fiasco. Even the Falcons made the playoffs (and won a Wild Card game) a year after the 28-3 disaster. And in the surest sign that the trend was dead, the 2018 Patriots actually won a Super Bowl a year after losing it.
That might have led to us letting our guard down on some potential stank hovering over the Super Bowl losers.
The 2019 Rams went 9-7 and missed the playoffs after losing the Super Bowl, and the 2020 49ers went 6-10 after losing their starting quarterback to injury. Then the Chiefs went 12-5 after their Super Bowl loss and made it to overtime of the AFC Championship Game at home. So it just wasn't on our radar. We can be forgiven.
But from here on out, we can longer refer to the 2022 Bengals as the reigning AFC champions. That's a title they gave away several weeks ago -- arguably in Week 1, really -- and it's one they're not longer worthy of carrying. For now, they're just ... the Bengals.
(Home team in CAPS; Thursday lines)
Philadelphia (-14) over HOUSTON
The Eagles will come down to earth eventually. But not against Houston.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) over ATLANTA
Believe in the power of the bye week.
NEW YORK JETS (+12.5) over Buffalo
The Bills showed us last week that they have no interest in covering spreads. That was disgraceful. Disgusting. Downright scandalous. Congress ought to get involved.
Anyways. Provided Zach Wilson doesn't go full-on Leeroy Jenkins again, I like the points.
Miami (-5) over CHICAGO
Minnesota (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT
Three road favorites? All four NFC North teams involved? When home dogs are winning 54 percent of the time this year? Let's get crazy.
NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) over Indianapolis
I don't really know what to make of the Patriots, but I like their chances against Sam Ehlinger making his second career appearance just five days after the firing of his offensive coordinator. Feels like a good spot for Bill Belichick, to be honest.
Carolina (+7.5) over CINCINNATI
This game smells. I anticipate having to sweat it out until the bitter end, too.
Las Vegas (-1.5) over JACKSONVILLE
I have to pick the Raiders here, because I find it genuinely unbelievable that they might drop to 2-6. I'm not advocating for any rash moves, but it feels like the heat would turn up to a very real level on Josh McDaniels if they lost to the Jaguars here.
I'm no coach or anything, but I'm going to go ahead and try to get the ball to Davante Adams first and foremost, and then work from there.
ARIZONA (-2) over Seattle
The Seahawks are cool. Are they "beat the Cardinals twice in four weeks" good? I feel like no. Apologies to Geno.
TAMPA BAY (-3) over Los Angeles Rams
The Rams low-key own the Bucs in the Tom Brady era. But enough! The Bucs aren't losing four straight and six out of seven. They're not. Now, you might say, "But Michael, you idiot, they've already lost three straight and five out of six. They could obviously lose four straight and six of seven. You moron." I'd say that's harsh but fair.
But give Tom Brady some credit. Coming off a mini-bye, the Bucs should be able to actually win a real, live football game this weekend. If not? Oh boy.
KANSAS CITY (-12.5) over Tennessee
Oddly, the Titans sit above the Chiefs in the AFC standings. That's just a temporary glitch in the system.
Baltimore (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS
I've really gone favorite-happy this week. I know that I'm betting against common sense and trends and everything else, but what am I supposed to do -- make bad picks? I'll never do that*.
*I do it quite often.
Last week: 6-8
Season: 60-59-3
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
