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Cold Pattern Followed By Another Coastal Storm


After a very active pattern the past week, we all get a needed break from the activity this weekend. Starting out this morning we have lots of clouds around as a low pressure center off the coastline slowly drifts eastward and out of the picture. These clouds are the remnants of Sandy's circulation. However, with cyclonic flow aloft clouds will be tough to completely eradicate this afternoon. With developing sunshine, temperatures will be cool in the upper 40's northwest suburbs to lower 50's southeast Mass, Cape and Islands. An active and blustery wind at 15-25mph from the northwest will add some extra chill to the air making it feel more like the middle 40's. November is here!

Tonight skies remain partly cloudy, and it this cloud cover that will be "insulating" us from a frigid night. Most areas should remain above freezing heading into Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon the sun will be out in full force. However, with such a low sun angle temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees. A few afternoon clouds may pop up but by far the sun will win out the clouds. It will be A fantastic but chilly end to the weekend.

As we head into Monday, a strong high pressure center will be building in from the north and directing much colder air in from Canada..straight from Hudson Bay. This high and its associated northerly winds will keep temperatures very chilly in the middle 40's despite vibrant afternoon sunshine. Clouds will be few and far between, but it will be tough to shake off the chill.  Expect very cold temperatures for the overnight hours and the coldest airmass we have seen so far this early season.

Monday night skies will clear out, and with dew points dropping into the middle teens temperatures will drop rapidly through the 30's into the 20's by Tuesday morning. Some interior valley locations in nw Mass and southern NH may drop into the teens! In fact, temperatures will drop so quickly Monday night that many of us will be below freezing by 8 o'clock Monday evening. It will be a cold ride home and a frigid drive to work Tuesday!

Tuesday afternoon, that strong area of high pressure will be directly overhead. Skies will be sunny from start to finish, with temperatures continued well-below average in the middle 40's. Winds will be light, however, and with ample sun it won't feel as chilly out there as Monday. Weather for election day will be ideal for getting out the vote. I suggest you take in as much sunshine as you can over the next few days as a storm is brewing by midweek...

This takes us to Wednesday. After barely a week since Sandy lashed the coastline with damaging winds and flooding, another storm will be making a run for New England. This storm won't be nearly as menacing or damaging as Sandy, but it may pack a pretty good punch. Currently this nor'easter-to-be is way up in the northwest Canadian maritimes. However, over the next few days a potent upper-trough will swing down from Canada. Several waves of energy will swing along the periphery of this trough. The first will pass well to our south and will go largely unnoticed as it passes off the coast Monday. A second, stronger wave of energy will rotate around the trough and dig further south. It will interact with Gulf of Mexico moisture, and will serve as a source of lift to generate low pressure development.

This low will begin to intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and as it heads north will spread increasing clouds Wednesday morning with rain beginning to break out from south to north. Now, how cold we get Tuesday night and the timing of the precipitation onset Wednesday, in association with the favorable location of a high pressure center to our north may yield a snowy start to the storm for northern and western New England. In fact, some computer models generate several inches of snow! Some of the nearby higher elevations in the Berkshires may also start out with a burst of snow. The main story closer to home though will certainly be the rain and wind as 1-2+ inches of rain will be possible along with gusty coastal winds that could crank to 40+mph. With many of our beaches just recovering from Sandy, flooding and beach erosion may be a concern. Of course, this is still several days out, and a path along the Benchmark that is currently advertised by our computer models could easily become a path several hundred miles out to sea (Lets cheer for the latter). There is the potential for some heavy mountain snowfall in the mountains of Vermont where some areas above 2000 feet may see upto a foot of snow!

The main concern from this storm will be the New Jersey coast who will be lashed again with coastal flooding and the potential for another minor storm surge at high tide. Coastal location here are already compromised and with power still out...many could be exposed to the harsh elements of weather once again.

Thursday any rain and wind will begin to subside, and the sun should be back out in full force by Friday. Looking even further down the road we may be in for a nice warmup as the NAO flips to near neutral and substantial ridging tries to build in from the west. This would be a nice respite from the cold pattern we have to start next week!

Enjoy the sunshine, enjoy your weekend, and stay tuned for further updates regarding the potential midweek nor'easter.

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