Baby, It's Cold Outside!
Overnight, a narrow strip of light snow developed over the coastal plain only which was on the western flank of a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Maine. Flying flakes amounted to nothing more than a wind-blown feather dusting in spots over Essex County down through Boston and the South Shore to Cape Cod. This sliver of snow will shrink and shift offshore first thing this morning while another band migrates across central Maine into the White Mts. of New Hampshire where locally heavy snowfall is possible in places like picturesque Bretton Woods. Meantime, over our area, the overcast should eventually break up to enable some sunshine over portions of southern New England including the Boston area later this morning and afternoon. The brisk and gusty wind will add a real chill to the air throughout the day as the temperatures slowly rise to highs of 22-28 degrees which is about 14-20 degrees below the average for mid-December. By the way, one year ago today, it warmed up to 48 degrees. The core of this chilly air mass will pass across the area today with some moderation to follow over the next few days. The wind will be much lighter tomorrow through Saturday yielding much more comfortable conditions with highs near 32 tomorrow then into the middle 30s after that.
The main focus is fixed on the potential storm later this weekend. Most current guidance continues to indicate that the storm will be escorted out to sea with a slight sideswiping over Cape Cod where a small accumulation is possible. Additionally, as a wind component turns onshore from the Atlantic, some ocean-effect snow showers should erupt extending up across the South Shore and possibly through Boston to Cape Ann Sunday afternoon and night. My favorite most reliable model has delivered consistency in its solution so I am becoming increasingly confident of this prediction. Nevertheless, the reality is that we're still about 5 days away from this storm making its closest pass to the region. Consequently, there is sufficient time for the steering currents to change thereby creating a twist in the plot. Realizing that minute shifting of the upper level wind field can produce an enormously different outcome, we must remain vigilant as the event closes in. Although the precise track cannot be etched in stone presently, it appears that the odds favor a miss rather than a hit. The storm will track up over Nova Scotia as the next batch of jet stream energy arrives to produce bombogenesis northeast of Bermuda. This rapidly intensifying system will evolve into a monster over the North Atlantic and as it backs into the Canadian Maritimes, a very tight pressure gradient will produce several windy days here next week. Initially sunny, the week may turn somewhat flaky if batches of snow whirl around that giant cyclone and expand toward New England.
So will we be dreaming of a White Christmas? Well, we have two shots at snow before the holiday impacting different portions of the area. Cape Cod has the highest risk of some small accumulation on the fringe of the main precipitation package from the Sunday ocean storm. Some light snow may also break out along the coastal plain to whiten the ground if the wind turns north-northeasterly but most signs presently suggest that it would not expand into the far western suburbs. The final shot is having some spells of snow circulating in from the north-northeast from that potential super storm over the eastern Canadian Maritimes. This could happen next Wednesday and Thursday. We shall see.
If new data warrants any revision of this synopsis, I will post my midday musings after 12:30pm. Otherwise, Todd Gutner releases his latest thoughts late this afternoon or early this evening.
Make it a great day!
