...And The Beat Goes On

This surreal "winter" continues to amaze all of us, gladden many of us and disappoint some of us. The wide open winter has resulted in lower heating demand, few hazardous driving days yielding far fewer car accidents, little or no snow removal costs, much less hassle and inconvenience and no destructive tides. There are always two sides to every story so it's all good for many but very tough for the plow guys and other snow-dependent businesses. It's been 75 years since there was a duplicate winter. Boston's seasonal snowfall remains at a meager 7.8" Nine years ago today, however, the Presidents' Day Blizzard ended in the morning after producing a whopping record total of 27.6" eclipsing the 27.1" of the Blizzard of 1978! Check out this video. It contributed to a record-breaking February 2003 snowfall of 41.6" which surpassed the previous max of 41.3" in 1969. There has only been a trace of snow on 2 occasions this February in Boston. The last lean February was in 1998 at 0.3" of snow.

After another above average February day today with highs in the middle 40s and specifically 47 degrees in Boston, there is a risk of a few scattered brief rain and snow showers this evening with clearing overnight as an upper level impulse passes through. Sunshine will be bright across most of the region tomorrow with most of the patches of clouds over the northern mountains where spotty flurries might occur. The northwest to northerly wind will blow up to 10-20 mph as high pressure ridging approaches. Meantime, a storm in the southern stream will be steered out to sea well south of New England late tomorrow into early Monday. Its northern fringe of high cloudiness may be seen in filaments and streamers tomorrow afternoon and these will recede southeastward early Monday morning. It will be a bit cooler the next couple days with lower 40s tomorrow and near 40 on Monday. On this Presidents' Day, the wind will be brisk but the sunshine will be bright. It will chill down Monday night as high pressure becomes poised over the region into Tuesday morning. As the ridge shifts offshore, a southerly breeze will warm the air back into the upper 40s on Tuesday afternoon as cloudiness increases. An approaching frontal boundary will set off some showers that evening with perhaps a bit of snow up north in the mountains. After this feature moves offshore, a southwesterly breeze will maintain the warmth on Wednesday when lower 50s are possible in the area again. The next system departing the Ohio Valley will arrive to produce some showers on Thursday. A followup storm may blossom northeastward toward New England on Friday. It is too premature to be confident about either of these storms right now. For now, we will lean toward persistence and not postulate a big storm. One thing seems more lucent and that is colder than average weather for the last weekend of February. Meteorological spring begins in 11 days on March 1. Gazing ahead speculatively, with ENSO models pointing to a transition to neutral conditions from March through May followed by a developing El Nino this summer and fall, it may not be so hot this summer but not as cool as 2009.

For the skiers, boarders, snowmobilers and other winter sports enthusiasts, despite the widespread bare ground in southern New England extending into southern portions of northern New England, it looks like winter way up north. Snowmaking has perked up the slopes in the southern resorts as well. Over most of the northern mountains, there have been some snow events adding to the snow depth but there really has not been a real blockbuster storm of 1-2 feet up there most of the winter. Nevertheless, more terrain is open and surface conditions are decent to very good. Keep in mind that the trails are in the most pristine shape during the mornings after nightly grooming. Traffic on more popular slopes especially the steeper ones lead to hardpack and icy patches. Please be extra cautious especially from middays into the afternoons. Many of the nordic and snowmobiling trails need a solid foot or more of fresh snow but none are foreseen at this time. There are two potential snow events next Thursday and Friday which should at least freshen up the trails.